3:50 p.m. The exits are coming, the exits are coming…
The Page: 48% in Indiana and in North Carolina say Rev. Wright was “very” or “somewhat” important to their vote.
AP:
The exit poll estimated blacks made up about a third of voters in the North Carolina Democratic primary, about one in seven in Indiana. More than half of voters in both states were women, which is typical for Democratic primaries. About one in seven voters in Indiana and slightly fewer in North Carolina were under age 30; about a quarter in North Carolina and somewhat fewer in Indiana were over age 65.
ABC: Most voters made up their minds early in both states.
Drudge: Hillary’s double dream dashed.
4 p.m. Polls in Indiana are now closed. Race is too close to call. (North Carolina polls close in half an hour.)
4:25 p.m. In Indiana: Clinton 58, Obama 42 (with 12 percent of precincts reporting).
4:30 p.m. The polls close in North Carolina and MSNBC and other networks immediately call the state for Obama.
4:55 p.m. Everyone is wondering what Obama’s win in North Carolina looks like in terms of demographics—and, likewise, what the demographic breakdown was in Indiana.
Here’s CNN’s very readable exit poll results for both states: North Carolina here and Indiana here.
The exit polling shows that in North Carolina, the importance voters attributed to “the situation with Rev. Wright” correlated very strongly to their preference of candidate. Clinton voters thought it was important, Obama voters did not.
Obama won North Carolina voters at all levels of education and income (puncturing, at least in this context, the notion that he only appeals to elites). He also won in every age group but the over 65. But the racial split endures: Obama won over 90 percent of black Democrats; Clinton won over 60 percent of white Democrats.
In Indiana the results look quite different. Clinton won among less educated voters, perhaps a validation of her increased populism and common folk language. She also won in every income bracket except the under $15K and the $75K - $100K.
While Obama won both rural and urban voters in North Carolina, in Indiana the divide is stark: urban voters for Obama, rural and suburban voters for Clinton. The racial divide remains the same, though: 60 percent of white voters for Clinton; over 90 percent of black voter for Obama. And age? In Indiana, it splits at around age 40: under 40s go to Obama, over 40s go to Clinton (as opposed to North Carolina where the split was at age 65).
5:20 CBS calls Indiana for Clinton. NYT has Clinton up 55 to 45, but some likely pro-Obama counties in the northwest corner of the state haven’t reported yet.
5:40 Questions on my mind: How big will Clinton’s margin be in Indiana? Will Obama’s margin in North Carolina be bigger? Will Clinton address the delegate math when she speaks tonight? Will she continue her quixotic quest to get Florida and Michigan to count? What data will the Obama campaign use to try to argue that Obama is improving his standing among working class white voters? When will Donna Brazille actually leap through the satellite feed and punch Paul Begala, as she appears to very much want to do?
5:55 p.m. Axelrod speaking to reporters in North Carolina: “This was not a game changer, folks, in any way, shape or form.”
6:08 p.m. Obama is about to speak to supporters in North Carolina. He enters to Bruce Springsteen. Behind him, for the benefit of the cameras, are a large number of white women (a demographic he actually lost big time in North Carolina).
Obama appears to be conceding Indiana (even though CNN now says the gap between him and Clinton there has closed to just four points). But he says his win in North Carolina, “a big state,” shows that tonight was no “game-changer,” as Clinton predicted it might be. “The only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, D.C.,” he says.
He looks tired. He points out that he’s now “less than 200 delegates away” from the nomination. And he promises that not matter what the pundits (and exit polls) say, the Democratic party “will be united in November.”
Then he segues into a stump speech focused mostly on McCain and his theme of change.
6:30 p.m. A discussion of the Limbaugh effect in Indiana—and a rough calculation that perhaps seven percent of Clinton’s Indiana voters “have no intention of supporting her in the fall.”
6:35 p.m. I take it back. A lot of the second half of Obama’s speech was new, in an important way: He went to great lengths to wrap himself in the American flag (talking about his father being buried in a coffin draped with the flag, for example), and he admitted he hasn’t always been a perfect messenger (a nod to the “bitter” flap and the Wright controversy) but said he loves this country too much to give up on his hope for changing it—and on the sense of unique American possibility that he and his family embody.
6:50 p.m. I’ve noted this above, but just so no one misses it: Hillary Clinton’s lead is shrinking by the minute in Indiana. Right now it’s less than three percent (just 36,000 votes) with several important counties (including, most importantly, the county holding Gary, Indiana) still to come.
7:25 p.m. MSNBC says that the results in Lake County, the likely pro-Obama county in Indiana that everyone’s waiting for, may not be in until midnight. However, Clinton is reportedly going to speak in two minutes.
7:35 p.m. Clinton is about to speak.
The visuals, and some of the body language, smack of a concession speech: Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea all on the stage. Clinton thanking her family, her supporters, every last person she could think of, all with a tone far less than triumphant. Chelsea looking decidedly non-euphoric, Bill looking grim.
But the actual language is the opposite of the body language—and well divorced from the reality of what’s been happening tonight. With results still not in from Lake County, and the race in Indiana still too close to call, Clinton declares victory and suggests she has a mandate to fight on until the last primary in June.
While she’s talking, her campaign emails a memo to reporters that begins with this Obama quote from April: “You know, Sen. Clinton is more favored in Pennsylvania and I’m right now a little more favored in North Carolina, so Indiana right now may end up being the tiebreaker. So we want to work very hard in Indiana.”
Dropping the “may” from “may end up being the tiebreaker,” Clinton tells her audience in Indiana that Obama had claimed that their state would be a tie-breaker and that the tie has been broken—in her favor.
“Tonight we’ve come from behind, we’ve broken the tie, and thanks to you it’s full speed on to the White House,” she says.
Continuing her populist posturing, she says her “victory” (still not validated by the major networks) was, “for everyone who holds your breath at the gas pump… and for everyone who is working day and night.”
Then she makes another appeal for online donations so that she can fight on—”on to West Virginia, Oregon, Kentucky and the other states.” And she promises to keep fighting to get the (rule-breaking) votes in Florida and Michigan to count.
She plans to work her heart out, she says, and she exits to Tom Petty’s “Won’t Back Down.”
On cable television, however, the tone of the pundits is near funereal. There is now no realistic mathematical formula for Clinton to win the nomination. Even if she does win Indiana tonight, it will be by a very tiny margin, hardly the type of victory she needs in order to argue to the superdelegates that Obama is a fatally flawed candidate who has been mortally wounded by the Wright controversy.
It’s over. Either she just doesn’t know it yet, or she just doesn’t care.