Comments on Democratic Primary Results: Obama Wins North Carolina, Clinton Wins Leads Narrowly in Indiana

5% margin of victory for clinton in Indiana?

wow. I thought Hillary would do as well in Indiana as in Pennsylvania.

Oh wellz.

Who cares.

We already know what will happen. Obama wins NC, Clinton wins Indiana, the gap stays about the same. Obama yawns and runs out the clock further. Hillary gives a speech where she pledges to hang in there, dropping the ending "g" on her adjectives for focus-grouped folksiness. The Democratic party splinters yet further.

The end. Off to go have a drink. Several of them, perhaps.

Wright should be the most hated man in America.

what a bitch...absolute bitch.

Just read that the Clinton camp is yet again redefining the delegate math. Why is anyone in the Democratic party tolerating her at this point? I really do think we may wind up seeing her dragged kicking and screaming from the convention floor.

Oh, and also: Most of those people who thought Wright was "important" were likely Hillary supporters who supported Hillary before they ever heard of Wright anyway. So ... whatever.

CNN has a breakdown by county, and the Chicago-area precincts havnen't reported yet. That gap will narrow in Obama's favor.

@4 - tsm has it nailed. Everybody knows that the delegate ratio isn't going to change, but dagnabbit, Hillary is going to fight to the bitter end. Meanwhile, McCain gets a free ride from the press and we watch the Democratic party lose another election.

The stupid undeclared superdelegates could end this thing in a hurry if they went for Obama now (as they are going to eventually) instead of waiting.

And yeah, a guy from Gallup was on NPR yesterday talking about the Wright effect. Most people who say that the Wright thing matters are Hillary supporters engaging in wishful thinking.

It doesn't matter which one wins Indiana. Indiana has been republican country for decades; neither dem candidate stands a chance against McCain in the state.

All you have to do to win Indiana in the election is say you're the republican candidate. It really is that easy.

Meanwhile, CNN has called NC for Obama based on 0% precincts reporting, giving no rationale whatsoever.

Awesome.

I receive a NYT Alert saying Obama wins NC. I go to the front page of the NYT and there are no numbers for NC. 0% reporting? WTF?

statistical modeling may not always be completely accurate but the way they build the models, they can pretty much get the general picture of who will win based on sampling exit polls and extrapolating that across the entire state based on demographic information.

They called NC based on the result of the exit polling there being so far outside the margin of error that they'll take the chance, no doubt.

So when is Clinton suspending her campaign?

Tomorrow?

I saw Wright on PBS. I found him articulate and insightful. In other words, not right for America. I wish that Obama could embrace him and still win.

When the exit poll data is so overwhelmingly in favor of one candidate over another, they can call the race right away, as the probability of the reverse result being actually true is negligible. Hence NC for Obama, probably by a HUGE (~ 15-20%) margin.

Since the 2000 election, the exit poll data is taken with a huge grain of salt. An immediate call like this is a good sign of a total blowout.

Thanks for the clarification. I'd read that the exit polls were useless, but makes sense that they have a margin of error like any poll, and not that suprising that Obama is winning by margins larger than that.

People say Wright or Bosnian snipers are important because it allows them to mentally back-fill their knee-jerk tribal affiliation with something resembling a rational justification.

@18:

Of course he'd be "articulate and insightful."

He has ass to kiss to stay in the graces of the man who he believes may be president. He wants a spot on Obama's staff.

Think Hutch...only with a national focus.

where are the clintoon supporters that called for a nc victory?

Pox @21 is perceptive. It's all symbolism, and the battle mostly takes place well below the surface in the lizard brain. People like to think they're rational, but they're mostly not.

Indiana is North Kentucky.

Fuck Hoosiers. In fact, EXTRY Fuck Hoosiers, to use their favorite hick term.

Hi max

I live in Indianapolis, and I've never heard anyone say anything near "extry fuck" anything. Or "extry" anything. Maybe you should remove your superior, artsy head out of your ass and get a clue about the rest of the country.

I just know from living here that the dem vote matters not one iota. The republicans will take the state in November, so none of this matters in the least.

And it's certainly not worth arguing about. The dem vote just isn't going to matter in the final result of dem versus rep.

You idealistic hipster Obamatons are going to cry like babies when you realize how truly stupid, racist, and backwards MOST VOTERS are in this country. Seriously. I am sick at heart with the idea that fucking sellout John McCain is going to be the president because so many people think the Messiah Obama will save us somehow, and hey, he's cool, besides. Whoop de-do. Most rural and conservative Dem voters are so stupid they still think he is a Muslim.

Oh well. Another Dem loss will hasten the US's inevitable slide off the world power stage. Maybe it's for the best in the long run.

Clinton voters thought it was important, Obama voters did not.

Shocking! Seriously, I think this fits in with what pox@21 and Fnarf@24 said: most of these voters already supported Clinton, and then found a justification in Wright. There is, in fact, evidence that a lot of these official justifications people give for their vote are meaningless.

So, @27, I'm guessing that you think we should cater to the stupid, racist backwardness of "MOST VOTERS." It's time for us to put the brakes on a charismatic and talented and intelligent candidate so we can cater to the crackers.

My question is: Where does that stop? What are you not willing to cede to the racist backward vote?

So, if CBS has called Indiana for Clinton, we can expect Obama to get a majority of the delegates in Indiana, right?

I don't know the answer, I really don't. But I have a lot of worry that in the end most people - not you and me, but most people - are not going to be comfortable voting for a black man - MAYBE if he were a conservative, but even then I think not. I think there is a lot of naive-ness (I can't spell it the correct way) in thinking that O can win. I HOPE he can, but I worry. I think honestly think Hillary is better-prepared to be president. I am also sick and tired of the sexism directed at her, more by Dems than anyone! No, her campaign has not been pretty, but I love how scrappy she is. I want a scrappy president. And I hope she keeps going. I like this democracy stuff.

Bottom-line: god forbid McCain should win.

Hillary has not yet won Indiana. CBS is off their rocker to call it while Obama closes her lead by the minute.

This Primary is ridiculous.

Hicks and racists for Hilary!

I think it's reasonable to call Indiana for Clinton. The margin will narrow, but I doubt that the Chicago suburbs alone can close a 9-pt gap.

Bitter, point taken, but I think most racists, disgusted by Bush/Republicans, will just stay home. Which leaves the non-racist voters, which means that we're looking at Obama and McCain on their merits. Seeing as how McCain is a senile Bush ass-licker, I'm thinking Obama will be ok.

I'm sure your fears are sincere, @31, but isn't your feeling that Hillary is going to have loads of sexism heaped upon her incompatible with your feeling that she's more electable? Do you not think that there are plenty of people uncomfortable voting for a woman - especially Hillary Clinton, of all women?

interesting that hoke, cumberland and robeson counties in nc have gone overwhelmingly for obama...hillary was really trying to get the lumbee vote there. also today 2 native super delegates have signed up for obama. kalyn free who founded indns list and has done alot for the democratic party in indian country.

Still no results from any of the Chicago counties and Hillary only up by 8%. That's good for Obama, I think, and perhaps jumping the gun on CBS' part.

bitter, if clinton can't beat obama with the race card then shes a really bad candidate.

of the states that Obama has won, his margin of victory is significantly larger than of the states Clinton has won. i did the math once, and Obama, on average, wins states with about twice the lead than the states Clinton has won. today for example: Obama leads NC by 30 points, over Clinton's 10 points in Indiana. (i know precincts are still reporting but these numbers won't change significantly)

so on top of having won more states, Obama has also won those states with a much greater victory than Clinton's wins.

which is why he has more delegates and why Clinton needs quit.

@22,

Wright wants a spot on Obama's staff? What are you smoking?

@35: But we had hopes for Kerry in 04 too, just to get Monkey-Boy out of the place so he'd quit throwing poo at the middle east. Living in the midwest, I can tell you good ol' boy George W is still popular. And a large part of the midwest will NOT be cool with either a black man or a white woman as president. Because they're afraid.

We still have KKK chapters in this part of the country that are active and have rallies. They're of the stupid, three-tooth, trailer park, incest-plagued variety of people, but they exist. And they, unfortunately, can vote.

Their votes go to republicans. Always.

whites voting for HRC are racists. blacks voting for bho are not. that's what the logic is??

the results are as we thought, BHO stedaily closes the gap to 2025, he's the likely nominee, but is looking less and less electable. Unelectable?? Didn't say that. The point is, how does he get more electable.

There is a true racist core that won't go ffor him but equating all HRC voters with racists is a bit of an overeaction. Those are the voters OBama -- and us -- we -- whatever -- need to win.

@33 juvenile name calling isn't going to help.

@35 this type of argument simply amounts to wishing the problems away. ratehr convenient. "I do't know why but I venture to suspect that everyone who is a problem with just stay home and this time for once in the first time in human history the election will be decided on the merits [that is, my ownparticular view what's merits and what's proper character judgmetn and excluding my own particular view of what's not proper charatcer judgment as in anyone who says WTF why'd he hang with Wright for 20 yrs then denounce him only when attacked politically well that person is a racist so I just assumed away all problems by assuming all those people will just stay home anyway]"

A better program would be as suggested before
-sort of declare victory/start the general election campaign now/go travel to all 50 states tio kick off ground game in voter reg/float hrc for vp say something nice about her to sweeten up her supporters/be more specific on the economy show some leadership/oh btw blew this am. he said give me "biscuits and gravy" oopse sorry he actually said give me "biscuits and grits" which sounds rather like elitiste pandering to anyone from the south or border states....and I do mean elitist-e if you know what i mean.....

anyhoo just waiting to start working for our nominee obama with all unity possible....he really needs to find a way to sort of change his message and end this ....deriding hrc isn't going to do it....better to gracefully seat mi and fl and in effect declare victory and start he war on mccain and start somethign we can all join.....why play in the inherently divisive primary box?? i mean he's gotta do it but imagine how newsworthy it woudl be if he came to oh or pa or fl and had a huge rally with 50K people each to kick off voter registration drives...

look presidential dude....

Obama closes to 6 points with the last remaining county in the Indianapolis area yet to report and likely in his favor...

Hillary's gonna be crying for a re-vote any minute.

With this margin of victory in NC, Edwards could endorse Obama with some decent cover.

If he desired to do so.

Sorry to veer off topic here, but how about the fact that McCain is only getting 75% of the republican vote?

@ 41:

Why else the backpedalling effort?

He wants to stay close to Obama without causing *too many* ripples right now. Especially during the period when Obama denies him...he can come back later this way if Obama wins (which he won't, McCain will sweep the midwest because of the Obama/Clinton nasty-fight)

4 points now in Indiana.

@42 Their votes don't always go to Republicans. Today they are going to Hillary. Because Rush told them to.

@46:

"Only" 75% is way more than Indiana usually gives up. McCain's Indiana's puppy. Forget about this, the democrats have no chance in Indiana. Like I said earlier, it really doesn't matter, the dems have lost Indiana yet again.

The fight is over here as much as it is in West Idaho (oh, sorry, Max, that'd be Washington--kind of like Indiana being 'north Kentucky')

Screw you...extry hard. North Kentucky, west Idaho style.

I wouldn't be so sure about Indiana in the fall. Note that either Clinton or Obama blows away all the Republican votes put together -- even if you skim some of hers off for the Limbaugh effect. And once the Democratic nominee starts focusing on McCain, who is honestly a soft target, I think we'll see some surprises in November. I think we might see twenty or thirty surprises. I think "McCain" is going to become a part of the vernacular, even more than "Goldwater" did.

Halfway through Clinton's speech, and I'm completely unimpressed. She sounds completely divorced from reality.

The icing on the cake would be if Obama pulls through a slim victory in Indiana, and her "coming from behind to win" message is brutally shattered.

I think it's pretty pathetic that Clinton is now making "victory" speeches that focus on a...gas-tax holiday. Welcome to 2008, America. Your #1 concern is how much tax you pay on gasoline to fuel your giant SUV and drive 4 blocks to the fast-food chain.

Sigh.

2% margin

16000 people. shrinking, still.

I'm going down ... to Sin City

Great time at the Fuse party at Moe's!