2008 Here We Go Again
posted by May 5 at 10:05 AM
onTomorrow Democrats in Indiana and North Carolina will go to the polls to help settle this never-ending fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
For those keeping track, it’s now been five months since the Iowa caucuses, all of the latest delegate counts have Obama ahead of Clinton by about 130 delegates, and yet lots of people (including Obama and Clinton) are saying they think this fight will last all the way until the last primaries on June 3—or even until the Democratic National Convention in late August (psychosomatic ebola be damned).
Steel yourselves, people.
The polls have Clinton up in Indiana and Obama up in North Carolina. If they split the night, with one win each, then this definitely goes forward to West Virginia on May 13, Oregon and Kentucky on May 20, and beyond.
Clinton will take a win in Indiana as vindication of her decision to stay in the race (and stay ruthless) even when many question whether it’s mathematically possible for her to win the nomination. In this split-win scenario, expect to hear about another Clinton comeback or a continued sense of “momentum” that is building on her win in Pennsylvania and further highlighting Obama’s problems with working class white voters.
If Clinton manages to win North Carolina, too—well, expect to hear all of the above and then some. That would be a disastrous scenario for Obama and suggest that the Wright controversy has really hurt him (though one recent poll suggests it hasn’t).
On the other hand, if Obama wins both states Clinton will have a lot of explaining to do. Why is she still in the race? Why did she push the gas tax break so hard? Is Obama’s math really that wrong? Why isn’t the rural hitman, as much fun as he is to photograph and write about, helping?
But, as suggested above, the likely scenario seems to be a Clinton win in Indiana and an Obama win in North Carolina.
What will that mean? Let the pre-spin begin…
Comments
~Indiana~
She should have dropped out after the loss in Guam.
As goes Guam, so goes the nation.
Thanks SeMe. Fixed.
spin me round right round like a record right round...
...and steel yourselves for the Credentials Committee fight over the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegates... the so-called "Nuclear Option"
I'm ready for anything. As long as I never have to hear Dan Abrams talk about it.
goddamn I hate how everything is the nuk-u-lar option now. It's not gonna happen anyhow -- Dean isn't gonna give Clinton control of the rules committee. Part of me hopes that Clinton does get the ultimate nomination -- the Democratic party would be splintered, fractured so bad that a third party would almost have to form from it.
If this Democratic Primary Season has had one consistent aspect to it, it's that it does not want to die. So knowing that, it's really easy to predict primary results (it's how I pegged PA's spread at +9 points for Hillary).
Basically, figure out the results that best keep alive the nomination process, and voila... insta-prediction. So for tomorrow, I'd guess Barack wins NC by 8 and Hillary wins IN by 5.
Blacks vote for Barack and whites are scared of him ... blah blah blah... maybe momentum is shifting to Hillary... blah blah blah... we find out (again) that endorsements don't mean anything... blah blah blah... same ol' stuff.
Just please make it stop. I'm not finding this fun anymore.
i'm starting to really dislike the white blue collar voter. don't you WANT a president smarter, thinner, and cooler than you?
AND HE'S NOT EVEN THAT BLACK!
Hillary is making it ok for white people to use race as a pretext to oppose Obama, setting him up to lose in November.
Just imagine if she had bailed in early March, and called for unity behind Obama. No Pennsylvania race baiting. Support for Obama during the Wright controversy, lambasting it as a distraction from the Iraq war and the need for white and black working people to receive greater benefits from a government now skewed toward the very wealthy. No Michigan/ Florida bullshit. No ridiculous angling for superdelegates.
She's giving swift boat tactics a good name. Saying she's doing it on behalf of the white working class. Making it sound like Obama is out to screw them, cannot represent them. Hillary has done what the Republicans couldn't. She's made it ok to vote against Obama because of race. An victory in Indiana would be a vindication of this strategy, and a signal of disaster to come.
May I take this opportunity to point out that Hillary now has another truly awful pander to add to the gas tax holiday?
With food prices skyrocketing, farmers do not need your aid right now. Especially the ones with seven-figure incomes.
I'll be honest: As an Obama supporter, Hillary often did better flexing her wonkish muscle in debates, and I was left worrying a tad bit about Obama's own policy instincts by comparison. Seeing her take such dumb policy positions finally gets rid of any tiny remaining bit of unease I had. Phew.
I don't see this as damaging to the party. I think it is good for us all and is contributing to the huge surge in interest in voting and nominee selection. Any candidate that can't take the politicking for the nomination would not be able to withstand the rigors of the actual campaign to come. This is testing Obama's resolve, which he needs to counter the inexperience charge" and HRC is challenging the belief that she is "unelectabe".
I totally agree with Trevor. The only leadership Clinton has shown, as far as I'm concerned, is in making racism respectable.
Huh, I didn't realize Iowa was back in early December.
(It's been 4 months, no?)
Think of the poor pander bears, displaced by Global Warming, and the lack of a cheap gas tax rebate for the oil firms that are contributing to my campaign!
Won't YOU help save a pander bear?
(this message has been approved by the Hils for Pander Bears campaign and paid for by McCain/Bush 08)
So who won the election? I, uh, forgot to vote. Was it last week? Did the Mormon guy win, or that guy from New York?
No, it was that really old guy from Arizona, the Cialis spokesman, @16.
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