The visuals, and some of the body language, smacked of a concession speech: Hillary, Bill, and Chelsea all on the stage. Clinton thanking her family, her supporters, every last person she could think of, all with a tone far less than triumphant. Chelsea looking decidedly non-euphoric, Bill looking grim.

But the actual language was the opposite of the body language—and well divorced from the reality of what’s been happening tonight. With results still not in from Lake County, and the race in Indiana still too close to call, Clinton declared victory and suggested she had a mandate to fight on until the last primary in June.

While she was talking, her campaign emailed a memo to reporters that began with this Obama quote from April: “You know, Sen. Clinton is more favored in Pennsylvania and I’m right now a little more favored in North Carolina, so Indiana right now may end up being the tiebreaker. So we want to work very hard in Indiana.”

Dropping the “may” from “may end up being the tiebreaker,” Clinton told her audience in Indiana that Obama had claimed that their state would be a tie-breaker and that the tie had been broken—in her favor.

“Tonight we’ve come from behind, we’ve broken the tie, and thanks to you it’s full speed on to the White House,” she said.

Continuing her populist posturing, she said her “victory” (still not validated by the major networks) was, “for everyone who holds your breath at the gas pump… and for everyone who is working day and night.”

Then she made another appeal for online donations so that she can fight on—”on to West Virginia, Oregon, Kentucky and the other states.” And she promised to keep fighting to get the (rule-breaking) votes in Florida and Michigan to count.

She plans to work her heart out, she said, and she exited to Tom Petty’s “Won’t Back Down.”

On cable television, however, the tone of the pundits was near funereal. There is now no realistic mathematical formula for Clinton to win the nomination. Even if she does win Indiana tonight, it will be by a very tiny margin, hardly the type of victory she needs in order to argue to the superdelegates that Obama is a fatally flawed candidate who has been mortally wounded by the Wright controversy.

It’s over. Either she just doesn’t know it yet, or she just doesn’t care.