Over at Crosscut, Matt Rosenberg--senior fellow at the intelligent design-believing Discovery Institute's Cascadia Center--argues that Metro should completely revamp its bus system, starting by raising bus fares to somewhere between $3.50 and $4.00--or, in reality, probably even higher, as rising fuel prices increase the cost of operating the system. There's so much wrong with Rosenburg's argument it's hard to know where to start, so I'll just take his points in the order he presents them in.
First, Rosenberg argues that eliminating one-third of all bus routes would be a smart way for Metro to save money. Because on-time performance is low on routes, like his, that are heavily traveled, Rosenberg believes the obvious solution would be to eliminate routes that have fewer passengers.
Cut the lowest-ridership routes, let's say the lowest one-third, and re-deploy the buses and drivers to the busiest runs, where riders are most often bypassed. Where regulations require that regional sub-areas be apportioned a certain percentage of total Metro bus service, the King County Council should confront those mandates head-on. We could let politics undermine a common-sense re-deployment of limited resources. But let's not.
First of all, I'm not sure where riders are getting "bypassed"--my experience, in eight years of riding the Metro system all over the city, is that a more common problem is buses that arrive late or, in some cases, early. (Number 9 driver, scheduled departure from Rainier and Graham at 9:07, I'm talking to you!) Although I certainly agree that Metro doesn't always use its resources efficiently, cutting routes at a time when transit ridership is spiking (and gaining riders who've never taken transit before!) nationwide is asinine.
On a less market-driven note, let's not forget that Metro is part of a government agency. Its mission is to provide transit service throughout King County, including to elderly, low-income, and handicapped riders who have no other way to get around. Eliminating routes in places like Blue Ridge, where ridership is sparse, would leave people without a way to get around--as the recent controversy over Metro's Route 17 made abundantly clear. Rosenberg may not think those people matter--because they're preventing him from getting service every five minutes from downtown to West Seattle on his route, Route 21, which already runs every ten minutes at rush hour--but transportation agencies exist to provide a service to everyone, not just selfish Republicans. Moreover, Metro already deploys fewer buses on routes that don't get as much traffic; ever try catching the bus on Alki?
Second, Rosenberg argues that Metro fares should go up—way up—to reflect the true cost of riding the bus.
Currently, Metro fares pay for between a fifth and a quarter of the cost of running the system. Rosenberg would address this "problem" by raising one-zone fares (the fare you pay, for example, to ride from South Seattle to downtown) to $3.50 or higher, and raising the cost of bus passes by a third. (Rosenberg's own bus pass, he mentions elsewhere, is provided for free by his employer.) This is foolish not only because it's a sure recipe for depressing bus ridership, and thus reducing revenues (who's going to pay $7 to commute to and from work when driving their car costs less?) but because it ignores the fact that fares (or tolls, or gas taxes) never pay for the true cost of any transportation mode. Hidden subsidies for driving are estimated to run between $3 and $7 per gallon of gas; yet raising gas prices to reflect the true cost of all those free roads, sprawling subdivisions, emergency service, highway patrol, and free parking spaces--or charging tolls, or congestion pricing, or any number of fees and taxes to end subsidies for cars--is anathema to conservatives like Rosenberg. They want transit to pay for itself; but they want roads for free.
And those hidden subsidies I listed don't even begin to get into externalities. For example, carbon emissions from cars in the US cost an estimated $20 billion a year; wasted fuel and lost productivity because of congestion cost an estimated $78 billion a year; and car accidents cost an estimated $220 billion a year, for a whopping total of more than $300 billion. To pay for those externalities, which drivers currently create for free, drivers would have to be taxed at least an additional 10 cents a mile.
Taking transit instead of driving also creates a societal benefit that should be factored against its cost. Riding the bus instead of driving reduces the need for roads, highway patrol officers, and emergency service providers, and all the other subsidies and externalities I listed above. (Conversely, congestion pricing like the congestion charge implemented in London five years ago actually reduces driving.) Rosenberg's premise that a trip is a trip is a trip (Hummer, bus, Blue Angels jet) simply sweeps all that aside.
Finally, Rosenberg argues that Metro's bus service should be turned over to more "efficient" private companies—a standard Republican canard that one look at our "efficient" private health-care system should put to rest.
I do agree with Rosenberg that the 40-40-20 split (which allocates just 20 percent of all new bus service to Seattle) has got to be revamped, although probably not in the way he wants. Seattle has the highest transit ridership; it should get the largest share of new bus service. And I agree with him that pre-paid fares are a good idea--although, like everything government does, fare kiosks cost money, something conservatives like Rosenberg are hesitant to admit except when they're advocating for spending cuts.
Ultimately, unpredictable bus service is an argument for more government funding, not less. Improve the system, and riders will come; make it prohibitively expensive, and they'll stay in their (far more heavily subsidized) cars. It's also an argument for fixed rail like Sound Transit's proposed light-rail expansion, which has the advantage of predictability—something buses can never achieve as long as they're stuck on same roads as all those heavily subsidized cars