This week the Wall Street Journal looked at the promises Bush has made to the American public each January, going all the way back to 2001. The piece kicks off with this Bush quote about Iraq, from last year’s speech:

“Fellow citizens, we are in this fight to win, and we are winning. The road of victory is the road that will take our troops home. As we make progress on the ground, and Iraqi forces increasingly take the lead, we should be able to further decrease our troop levels.”

The Journal then notes:

After perhaps the bloodiest year for both American troops and Iraqis since the 2003 invasion, the strategy in Iraq has shifted dramatically — as has the language used to discuss the conflict. “Stay the course” is out, while “the way forward” is in.

Support among Americans and their representatives in Congress hit lows as the country spiraled toward a sectarian civil war and kidnappings and killings made daily headlines. Just after the midterm elections, in which voter anger about the war helped Democrats retake control of the House and Senate, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was pushed out. The Iraq Study Group report, released in December, provided both a searing critique of the administration’s policies and a bleak picture of how bad the situation really is. Conceding in an address earlier this month,”Where mistakes have been made, the responsibility rests with me,” Mr. Bush acknowledged a litany of American failures and announced plans to send at least 20,000 more troops to Iraq.

Meanwhile, a new addition to tonight’s liveblogging lineup: Ari Spool will provide real-time photographic evidence that she is indeed participating in her much-hyped State of the Union drinking game.

Speech begins at 6 p.m.