2008 Re: Will Washington Matter?
posted by January 18 at 11:30 AMon
Even more interesting: The percentages of “yes” and “no” answers in these two polls are almost exactly reversed. Slog readers believe, by a 62-38 majority, that Washington State’s Feb. 9 Democratic caucuses won’t matter. Insiders in D.C. believe, by a 60-36 majority, that the Democratic nomination fight won’t be settled on Feb. 5 and therefore Washington’s Feb. 9 caucuses will matter.
From a write-up of the insiders’ poll:
Some donít see nominees emerging until early March. This is based partly on the fact that no candidate on either side has yet won more than one state in a row. That means the race is no longer about momentum, itís about the long slow business of accumulating delegates.
At the same time, most of these insiders think Senator Hillary Clinton will eventually win the Democratic nomination and Senator John McCain will win the Republican nomination. (A full 80 percent of Republican consultants say Mrs. Clinton wins the nomination; wishful thinking?)
One theory emerging among this crowd: John Edwards, who is running third in the polls behind Senators Clinton and Barack Obama, will be able to rack up enough delegates to play kingmaker.
Other possible kingmakers: those patient states that didnít try to elbow their way up front in the voting sequence.
Barack Obama opened a campaign office in Seattle last weekend. Hillary Clinton is holding caucus training sessions throughout Washington this weekend. Looks like they’re both thinking the same thing.