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Friday, January 18, 2008

Re: Will Washington Matter?

posted by on January 18 at 11:30 AM

Yesterday, in our online poll, an overwhelming number of Slog readers said no. Today, in a similarly unscientific poll of D.C. insiders, an overwhelming number of politicos said, essentially, yes.

Even more interesting: The percentages of “yes” and “no” answers in these two polls are almost exactly reversed. Slog readers believe, by a 62-38 majority, that Washington State’s Feb. 9 Democratic caucuses won’t matter. Insiders in D.C. believe, by a 60-36 majority, that the Democratic nomination fight won’t be settled on Feb. 5 and therefore Washington’s Feb. 9 caucuses will matter.

From a write-up of the insiders’ poll:

Some donít see nominees emerging until early March. This is based partly on the fact that no candidate on either side has yet won more than one state in a row. That means the race is no longer about momentum, itís about the long slow business of accumulating delegates.

At the same time, most of these insiders think Senator Hillary Clinton will eventually win the Democratic nomination and Senator John McCain will win the Republican nomination. (A full 80 percent of Republican consultants say Mrs. Clinton wins the nomination; wishful thinking?)

One theory emerging among this crowd: John Edwards, who is running third in the polls behind Senators Clinton and Barack Obama, will be able to rack up enough delegates to play kingmaker.

Other possible kingmakers: those patient states that didnít try to elbow their way up front in the voting sequence.

Barack Obama opened a campaign office in Seattle last weekend. Hillary Clinton is holding caucus training sessions throughout Washington this weekend. Looks like they’re both thinking the same thing.

RSS icon Comments

1

Unscientific polling data is useless unless you know the respondents' astrological signs.

Posted by elenchos | January 18, 2008 11:37 AM
2

These "facts" are entirely useless to sloggers.

Posted by laughing my ass off | January 18, 2008 11:39 AM
3

Isn't the bigger question, "Do we care?"

When you're choosing being which douchebag should go up against whatever turd sandwich the other side picks...well...its kind of hard to care about the caucuses.

Posted by TheMisanthrope | January 18, 2008 11:41 AM
4

Pisces!

Posted by Mr. Poe | January 18, 2008 11:42 AM
5

All I know for sure is that I'll be sitting out the Feb. 5 "caucus" in Colorado. It's "non-binding," which is another way of saying it's a complete waste of time. At least your caucus means something.

Posted by Fifty-Two-Eighty | January 18, 2008 11:50 AM
6

Slog readers are always right. Why would anybody question that?

Posted by Mr. Poe | January 18, 2008 11:55 AM
7

Because that's just how Aries' are, that's why.

Posted by elenchos | January 18, 2008 11:59 AM
8

Aquarius, but you knew that.

Posted by Will in Seattle | January 18, 2008 12:57 PM
9

Yes, absolutely. No candidate will score a knock-out on Super Tuesday so the nomination will still be up for grabs.
Also, and more importantly, Washington has the highest delegate prize following Super Tuesday. The nation will be looking at our results to find out if any candidate gets a bump or bash following super Tuesday.
Remember to vote Edwards.

Posted by Washington | January 18, 2008 1:25 PM
10

Washington has the biggest delegate prize following Super Tuesday -- WTF?

1. Suspect Texas, Ohio, Penn., EACH have more than Washington State. Also Feb. 12th DC/Md/VA has more than Wash. state.

2. On Feb. 9th our returns reported Saturday night about 8 pm East Coast time are not going to play in any media cycle. By Monday it'll be old news and mixed in with Maine, Lousiana.

3. Yes, we will have our share of influence, we won't be playing a huge role. Note those insiders weren't saying WAshington State would pay large role, only that it will be a delegate contest after 2/5.

4. Here's the scedule after Florida:

February
1
Maine Republican primary

5
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho Democratic primary
Illinois
Kansas Democratic caucus
Massachusetts
Minnesotta
Missouri
New Jersey
New Mexico Democratic primary
New York
North Dakota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah

9
Kansas Republican caucus
Louisiana
Washington

10
Maine Democratic primary

12
District of Columbia
Maryland
Virginia


19
Hawaii Democratic primary
Wisconsin

March
4
Ohio
Rhode Island
Texas
Vermont

9
Wyoming Democratic primary

11
Mississippi

April
22
Pennsylvania

May
6
Indiana
North Carolina


13
Nebraska
West Virginia

20
Kentucky
Oregon

27
Idaho Republican primary

June
3
Montana
New Mexico Republican primary
South Dakota

August
Aug. 25-28
Democratic National Convention ó Denver, CO

Posted by unPC | January 18, 2008 2:53 PM
11

John Edwards has always thought Washington matters -- and has been doing caucus training and recruiting longer than any of the other candidates. Please attend your caucus and support him.

On issues that matter in the Northwest, he is the one that stands out.

-- Edwards is opposed to more nuclear reactors and more nuclear waste. Clinton and Obama both support building more nuclear power plants.

-- Edwards had the first universal healthcare plan. Obama's plan leaves millions uninsured.

-- Edwards has never taken money from PAC's and lobbyists. Obama and Clinton have both taken special interest PAC money.

-- Edwards has a plan to get all combat troops out of Iraq during his first year as President.

Prove the pundits wrong. Join us on February 9 and caucus for real change. Vote John Edwards.

Posted by Jenny Durkan, Washington State Chair Edwards for President | January 18, 2008 4:45 PM
12

Say Obama wins the Caucus and Clinton wins the Primary in this state, Clinton will receive all the delegates from Washington State.

The Democratic Party caucus is a feel good dog & pony show and has no real influence on the outcome or the # of delegates representing Washington State (this will be decided by the Primary on Feb. 19th).

You may as well crash the GOP Caucus where the results decide 50% of the delegates (with the other 50% chosen by the Primary).

Posted by Cato | January 18, 2008 6:24 PM
13

Cato, you couldn't possibly be more wrong.

The primary is the meaningless event for Democrats. The February 9 precinct caucuses are the first of three steps that will eventually choose 51 of the state's 97 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

If you don't believe me, perhaps you'd like to take a glance at the first page of this summary of the Washington Democrats' delegate plan

Posted by N in Seattle | January 18, 2008 8:25 PM

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