2008 Polls, Polls, Polls
posted by on May 1 at 11:32 AM
The Clinton campaign is touting some new national and state polls that show her doing better against McCain. Here’s one of them. And here’s the Clinton memo, which includes this:
The data shows that Clinton not only outperforms Obama in head-to-head matchups, but is also stronger in the all important subcategories that serve as bellwethers for a candidate’s overall strength. In addition, new data out today in three swing states vital to Democratic prospects in November show Clinton beating McCain.HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH MCCAIN: In a hypothetical general election match-up with McCain, Clinton wins handily (50-41) while Obama is virtually tied with McCain (46-44), according to the AP-Ipsos poll released Monday. A new poll from CBS/NYT show Clinton beating McCain by five points (48-43), while Obama ties McCain (45-45). The new Fox poll has Clinton beating McCain by one point (45-44), while Obama trails McCain by three points (43-46). And in Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Clinton leads McCain by one point (46-45) while Obama trails McCain by two points (44-46).
SWING STATES: New Quinnipiac polls out today show Clinton dramatically outperforms Obama in the critical swing states of Ohio in Florida. In Ohio, Clinton beats McCain by ten points (48-38), while Obama loses to him by one point (43-44). In Florida, Clinton beats McCain by 8 (49-41), while Obama loses to him by one point (42-43). Hillary also tops McCain by 14 points in Pennsylvania (51-37), while Obama’s lead over McCain is in single digits.
Meanwhile, the Obamas were on the Today Show explaining their response to the Wright flap—with Obama saying, if I heard him right, that it’s obvious the Wright mess has hurt him in the polls.
Clinton *is* gaining on McCain:
http://hominidviews.com/?p=1490
and Obama is gaining, but more slowly:
http://hominidviews.com/?p=1491
This is after Obama's been bludgeoned with Rev. Wright continuously for the past few weeks, of course. (It's effectively derailed the "he's a Muslim!" criticisms, however...)
But in the general election, the *best* way that the Democrats can defeat the Republicans is by providing a perceptibly different choice to the public. So who provides that against a 71-year-old Republican hawk? A 60-year-old Democrat hawk with a record of cozying up to Republicans? Or a 46-year-old Democrat with a more consistent anti-war record?
Actually, the analysis of the details of the polls show that it hurt her more than him, in the end.
Look at her negatives on almost any issue ...
Reality has a pro-Obama bias.
The thing about all these polls is that they are all the same from a year ago. Last spring when McCain and Clinton where both the frontrunners, all the polls showed them in the same position as now. The polls all showed Obama getting whooped by McCain. Now, just like with all the Primaries and Caucuses, Obama keeps moving up. It is tough for HRC to say she has the advantage in the polls when nothing has changed in over a year, she has done all this campaigning, but hasn't moved up (or down). That should be a red flag if she expects suddenly she can move past McCain.
they're cute together.
I keep seeing poll after poll showing Obama performing better than Clinton in states like Oregon, Wisconsin, New Jersey (a state CLinton WON for chrissakes!) and many others. In fact there is even polling that has Clinton behind McCain in usualy automatic blue states like Wisconsin. So How come you only show polls that the Clinton camp is highlighting? Also, how about the 3 illinois supers, one Texas super and one former Clinton super that Obama picked up today? Since supers are HRCs only slim chance shouldnt the news be that she is losing that battle badly when she needs to win it in a landslide? Nope, guess not, just whatever narartive keeps this long-over race alive in the minds of those who hate reality... cary on!
I'd rather see McCain win and destroy any hope the people have in Republicans than see Clinton win and trash everything the Democrats I know stand for.
At least McCain wears his R for all to see. If he plays dirty, it's even expected of him. We don't need Democrats like Clinton.
Should've been Hillary, not Clinton in the previous post.
You can feel love...
Clinton/Obama 2008! Feel it!
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