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Thursday, November 8, 2007

Out of One Election into Another: Gregoire Slightly Ahead of Rossi.

posted by on November 8 at 11:27 AM

The UW did a poll on Gov. Christine Gregoire vs. Dino Rossi late last month. “If the election were held today…”

Here’s what they found:

Gregoire 46.8%
Rossi 42.4%
Libertarian 2.2%
Undecided 7.3%
Other 1.2%

Meanwhile, Gregoire has a 12 percent advantage west of the Cascades. Rossi has a 16 percent advantage east of the Cascades.

The poll also found that Gregoire has a 63 percent approval rating, which seems weird given how close Rossi’s on her heels.

Here’s the explanation. That 63 percent approval is broken down like this: 25 percent strongly approve, 38 percent somewhat approve, 14 percent somewhat disapprove, 16 percent strongly disapprove, 6 percent don’t know. So, the researchers explain, her support is soft.

Indeed, last year they had her “strong approval” at 28.

RSS icon Comments


Once again why is a state institution doing partisan polling? Or any polling for that matter?

Posted by whatever | November 8, 2007 11:48 AM

Thanks Josh.

I'd like to see Dino go down in flames, but I've always feared he has his solid supporters, especially after the fiasco of 2004 and the aftermath. I'm a bit surprised he is as high as 42% support. Once the real campaign starts, I'm sure he will start losing support as he opens his mouth.

Posted by Down with Dino | November 8, 2007 11:50 AM

Dear Whatever (11:48 AM) -

Uh, that's their job! It's called research. Pretty much every single university in America does polling, and they are usually considered more "objective" than any other poll published because they are prevented, by law, from doing any "partisan" or "push" polling. Get a clue. In 2006, the same UW Poll predicted Cantwell would win by 14 points, and guess what, she won by 19 points!

Posted by because | November 8, 2007 11:54 AM

I have a bad prediction: Rossi probably will win next year. (I know everyone freak out) But the problem is Gregoire has not done anything SPETACULAR!!

If those numbers (WAY to early to be anything more than interesting) indicate anything is that Gregoire forgot she won by 130 votes. If she does not really step it up Rossi will win on the agenda of "change". And people fall for that sorta shit.

Sorry gang...

Posted by Just Me | November 8, 2007 12:00 PM

Whatever @1--they are not doing "partisan" polling. The Political Science school there does regular polls on issues. Their website heading reads, "Non-partisan, academic survey research"

I think it is called "education". Students learn about the real world by engaging in real world activities.

Dino! will not be able to keep himself undefined this time around. Dino! will have to show his true right-wing colors.

Posted by tiptoe tommy | November 8, 2007 12:00 PM

Yeah, whatever!

Don't you get it: if the State is doing it, it must be okay!
Bow down to current institutions, and stop asking questions!!

Posted by G. Orwell | November 8, 2007 12:01 PM

It baffles and dismays me that anyone would vote for a Republican for anything anymore.

Posted by DOUG. | November 8, 2007 12:02 PM

Why would anyone vote for a dinosaur named Dino anyway? Republicans are so end of millennium.

Posted by Will in Seattle | November 8, 2007 12:14 PM

It'd be easier for me to "strongly approve" of Gregoire if she hadn't proved to be so utterly useless: useless on family leave, useless on the environment, useless on the viaduct, and generally unwilling to be caught in the act of actual governing. What's she going to run on, exactly?

Posted by tsm | November 8, 2007 12:40 PM

And by the same token, why would you reward bad behavior by giving Gregoire another term in office. Don't you get it - when we continue to vote party lines for losers the losers eventually take over and the citizens have no voice whatsoever. I'll vote against Gregoire - whoever is running against her, Rossi or otherwise. Gregoire has done nothing to deserve another term in office - that's the part no one seems to understand.

Posted by chas Redmond | November 8, 2007 12:42 PM

I agree with some of the comments above about "what has she done?" and an interesting point in the original posting is that Gregoire has 63% approval, yet only 47% will vote for her. I guess I also "somewhat" approve, but the question is, approve of WHAT? The fact that so many (16%) of voters approve of CG, but do not intend to vote for CG is cause for concern

Posted by concerned democrat | November 8, 2007 1:16 PM

So, first question:

Was this a poll of people with landlines or a door to door actual poll?

Just sayin.

Posted by Will in Seattle | November 8, 2007 1:23 PM

Of course that is where he is now BEFORE he starts talking about his centrist policy (even if they are simply campaign lies) and his push for "Congestion Relief" (i.e. build more roads) that will split voters in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties, which is all he needs to do to win.

Voting down Prop 1 has given Dino an easy weapon to hammer Gregoire with, and this paper helped make it possible.

I also liked Dan's earlier Slog entry that stated that Prop 1 went down because the "powers that be" put the roads/transit plan on the ballot in an off year. Really? How about a newspaper responsibility to help convince voters to be dumb and vote against common sense transit measures?

I predict next summer we will all get to watch TV attack ads that say, "What has the Governor done to help ease congestion?" and it will work and Dino will be elected Governor next year. When that happens I hope that all the short-sighted liberal voters figure out that they helped make it possible by voting down Prop 1

Posted by jackofgreen | November 8, 2007 1:48 PM

centrist? it is to laugh ...

Posted by Will in Seattle | November 8, 2007 2:07 PM

why the hell would anyone vote for rossi?

what has he done that we would even consider him for our state's governer?

gregoire might be sleepy but rossi IS COMPLETELY AND UTTERLY POINTLESS.

if it came down to two do-nothing governers, i'd at least pick the party that DIDN'T vote for bush.

Posted by Cale | November 8, 2007 2:12 PM

This not proper use of public money.

#5 the poll was not done by students it done by a private polling company. what do you think they learned from this?

#3 what sort of "research" were they doing? how did it relate to "Ethnicity & Race"?

The Washington Poll is a non-partisan, academic survey research project sponsored by the Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity & Race (WISER), a research center at the University of Washington in the School of Social Sciences. Dr. Gary Segura, a professor of Political Science is the Director of WISER and a co-principal investigator on this survey with Dr. Matt Barreto, also a professor of Political Science.
The survey was administered by telephone, by Pacific Market Research, in Renton, WA, based on a randomly selected list of phone numbers using a list of registered voters.

Posted by whatever | November 8, 2007 2:19 PM

If gas prices rise above 4 dollars a gallon, I think that the whole congestion relief thing might not be as big of an issue as one might think or at least not framed in those terms. The issue could than be framed in "Why don't we have any other way to get around except by car,etc?" But no one really knows at this point what 2008 will bring.

Posted by Brian in Seattle | November 8, 2007 3:34 PM

Rossi will have 5 million by Jan -

"she can't lead on transportation, what does she lead on"

Grid locked Gregoire.

He is a real danger with loopy grin and all - she acts like an executioner on TV

I am a strict D - but very worried

An such a shit campaign last time - does she know the difference?

Posted by Essex | November 8, 2007 6:12 PM

Ugh. Gregoire really needs to step it up this time around. There are a lot of people out there who feel she coasted and stole the election by pulling strings. She has done nothing to reach out or give a compelling reason for those folks to change their opinion. And Rossi the jester just has to sit on the sideline and wait for 08 to arrive.

Posted by laterite | November 8, 2007 10:56 PM

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