Politics More on Rodney Tom
posted by July 19 at 14:45 PMon
Tom is the Republican-turned-Democrat state house Senator who’s taking on Darcy Burner in the Democratic Primary for the right to run against Republican Rep. Dave Reichert (R-8) for U.S. Congress.
In the discussion yesterday, Burner’s folks made the case that Burner was more viable than Tom. They explained that in last year’s election in Tom’s own 48th state senate district (parts of which fall within the 8th U.S. congressional district), in a de facto head-to-head between Burner and Tom, Burner scored 250 more votes in her race against Reichert than Tom scored against his GOP opponent at the time, incumbent state Sen. Luke Esser.
Eli deflated that argument (250 whole votes!) by pointing out the obvious: Tom’s race was “down ballot.” That is: More people who could vote in both races voted in the the Burner race—a U.S. Congress contest—than voted in a state senate race. Of course Burner got 250 more votes. It’s a wonder she didn’t beat Tom by more.
And there was nearly 68 percent turn out in the Tom/Esser contest, which seems like a good sampling of how Tom can do against an R in that district. And if anything, the 48th—with urban like Bellevue in the mix—is more liberal than the other parts of the 8th where Tom didn’t have to stand for election last time. Given that Tom’s coming at Burner from the right, I think his score in the 48th bodes well for him.
Moreover, given that Burner’s coming from the left and more people that could vote in both races voted in her race than in Tom’s, it’s not good news for Burner that she didn’t out poll Tom by more than 250 votes there.