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Thursday, September 21, 2006

Re: What Goes Around Comes Around

Posted by on September 21 at 12:15 PM

RTID is in huge trouble, both because of revised cost estimates for replacing the 520 bridge (what was a $1 billion shortfall is now a $2 to $3 billion shortfall) and because none of the other 5.6 billion in RTID projects have undergone the revised estimating process, and all, like the viaduct and 520, presume much lower (2-3 percent) construction-cost inflation than WSDOT now says is likely. Those megaprojects include SR 167 (for which RTID currently provides $1 billion) I-405 ($1.3 billion from RTID) and SR-509 ($870 million). The cost for all of those projects is likely to increase substantially, raising the question: How will RTID make up a likely multi-billion-dollar shortfall?

One possibility is that RTID could pare back its project list, cutting nonessentials such as the “cross-base highway” in Pierce County (SR 704). But any cuts will face a storm of protest from the county that gets funding for its pet projects slashed. RTID could also be uncoupled from Sound Transit (currently, neither 2007 ballot measure can pass without the other), allowing Sound Transit to move forward while the RTID board hashes out a new project list. Or both could go forward as planned, leaving many major projects insufficiently funded.


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Jesus, it's GOT to get uncoupled, because RTID is heading off a cliff at 180 MPH. "I know! Let's do EVERYTHING!" isn't going to work. The price tag is going to bankrupt the state and give us 40 years of Republicans. I predict it'll top $10 billion by January, and not slow down.

RTID is dead. Let's just hope it doesn't take ST with it.

I'm really sick of nothing ever getting done in this town. The longer we dither, the harder it gets. Just build something already.

Maybe the solution is user fees: tolls on every road that anyone wants to replace, starting the collection on the existing roads NOW. If people don't want to pay the tolls, then they'll use different roads where they are willing to pay the tolls, or they'll choose other ways to get around. Once the revenue stream is clear, then future construction changes can proceed based on the known revenue, bit by bit as revenue comes in. Anything that can't be paid for with those tolls shouldn't be built.

That doesn't help with mass transit, which would have to pre-finance as usual, but at least it wouldn't have to compete with roads anymore.

Or maybe this idea is as dumb as all the others. But surely there's some way to fix things. Right?

The mayor's tunnel financing includes tolls. But he says that you can't charge much because to use the tunnel because it's so easy for drivers who want to avoid high tolls to find other roads to use.

Hey, I got an idea for user fees. Let's impose a 25 percent tax on any non-residential construction downtown and a 25 percent tax on any residential construction that will be sold at more than $500,000 per 2500 square feet.

Use that money to fund the construction of unneeded tunnels and other boondoggles.

We'll call it the Tax on Stupid Rich Developers.

You put tolls on the Viaduct, I'll just drive somewhere else.

If we HAVE to prioritize, RTID (mainly the money for SR 520 and I-405)is more important for the local economy than ST2 (a few more miles of light rail line, mostly). Those critical road and bridge projects need to happen to ensure our economy continues to function. ST2 would be nice, but it is really pricey and we already are paying too much to Sound Transit for those trains that very few people will use.

1.Tear down the viaduct and don't replace it.

2. Replace 520 - That is MUCH MORE IMPORTANT than the stupid viaduct.

3.) Build out ST2 with the link to Macrohard.

OJ -

By "very few people", do you mean the 130,000/day projected to use Sound Transit phase 1?

OJ: If we HAVE to prioritize, RTID (mainly the money for SR 520 and I-405)is more important for the local economy than ST2 (a few more miles of light rail line, mostly). Those critical road and bridge projects need to happen to ensure our economy continues to function. ST2 would be nice, but it is really pricey and we already are paying too much to Sound Transit for those trains that very few people will use.

OK, OJ, so maybe you sincerely do want to engage in a good, old-fashioned transit-vs.-roads debate. But let's look at this from a political perspective.

Transportation Choices Coalition, State Sen. Ken Jacobsen, and other transit supporters were none too happy this last session when Gov. Gregoire and legislators prevented Sound Transit 2 from going to the ballot on its own. They saw the RTID pairing for what it was -- the political equivalent of putting a dead albatross around Sound Transit's neck.

Why is this? Because Sound Transit has a much better chance of passing in the three-county region than RTID has of passing in -- anyone know, is RTID the same three-county region or some other area?

ST2 adds more than a couple of miles of rail. The minimal Bus-Rail-Extension plan extends the northern route from the U-District to Northgate, and runs an entirely new line across I-90 to Bellevue. Both extensions will make a huge difference. (The other extensions south to Des Moines and in Tacoma won't do much to help Seattle-area traffic.)

The maximum rail option goes all the way to Redmond, Lynnwood, and the Port of Tacoma, extending mass transit to most central Puget Sound population centers that aren't served by commuter rail. (A third ST phase would presumably complete the system, but first things first.)

This would make a huge difference, and to my mind is more important than building more roads. The problems are funding and selling it politically--the basic problems that make building anything here pretty much impossible.

Or we could just sink the 520 floating bridge and not replace it.

I want to be on the "feasibility study" panel for the Lake Washington tunnel option. That's going to be a sweet gig for some lucky team of engineers.

"Anyone know how deep this thing is?"
"200 plus feet is some spots"
"Yeah, that's too deep. So, we agreed on $750,000, right?".

Hey, it's not like a boat will hit it and damage it, right?

Oh, wait, that's how the 520 bridge got damaged in the first place ...

My understanding is that however deep the lake is, a tunnel would have to be a hell of a lot deeper than that, because the bottom isn't really bottom, it's another hundred feet of soft mud. You can't build a tunnel in that. Soft material is much harder to tunnel through than even solid rock.

Mud makes the piggies very happy! Sqeal, rich road builders, squeal!

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