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Friday, September 29, 2006

Make That Twelve

posted by on September 29 at 14:13 PM

With Republican Congressman Mark Foley of Florida resigning today over allegations that he sent inappropriate emails to a young House paige, the Democrats’ chances of taking back Congress just got a lot better.

Conventional wisdom used to be that Democrats had to pick up 15 seats around the country to win back the majority in the House of Representatives. But now, by MyDD’s count, the Democrats are assured three pickups (including Foley’s seat, as of today) and only need to worry about finding 12 more.

Current Projection:

Democratic Gains of 18-24 [seats]
Democratic Majority of 221-227
Odds of Democratic Control: 90%

(Note that MyDD now sees WA-08 leaning Democratic.)

UPDATE: Some caution from DailyKos. Looks like Foley’s name will remain on the ballot in his district, and any votes for him will go to the Republicans’ replacement candidate.

FURTHER UPDATE: I have been chastised by a colleague for not noting this irony: Foley was chair of the House Missing and Exploited Children’s Caucus.

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According to Salon, even though Foley resigned, according to Florida law his name stays on the ballot, and any votes he receives go to the candidate the local Republicans choose to replace him. So that seat will probably stay R, unless the outrage over his naughty emails and IMs spills over more than I would expect.

Posted by Fnarf | September 29, 2006 2:21 PM

for the prurient and or news-minded, the actual emails are downloadable here. with the poor kid's reactions.

Posted by annie | September 29, 2006 2:42 PM

fuck all of this.

bush is trying to pardon himself:

Posted by seattl98104 | September 29, 2006 2:53 PM


Posted by david | September 29, 2006 3:03 PM

Did anyone catch this story yesterday? No facts have changed but I remember reading it yesterday and thinking it sounded a little like an overeating teenager and a kind, friendly politician. Barely a story at all, especially with his re-election well in hand. I didn't expect to read anything more about it.

Today he resigns. Having read the story yesterday, it makes no sense. The point being- I don't think a few e-mails would kill his re-election, not in Florida. So...I guess next week we will hear about how many children he molested or statutorily raped.

Yet, in the dark muck that is politics not far from thoughts is this: "Thank God it wasn't a Democrat this time."

Posted by GDC | September 29, 2006 3:05 PM

um, GDC obviously you're not following the news:

From ABC News:

Congressman Mark Foley, Republican from Florida, resigned today just hours after ABC news questioned him about a series of sexually explicit instant messages involving current and former underage male Congressional pages. Foley used the login name Maf54.

Maf54: Do I make you a little horny ?
Teen: A little.
Maf54: Cool.

Foley was the chairman of the house caucus on missing and exploited children and has long crusaded for tough laws against those who use the Internet for sexual exploitation of children.

Posted by seattl98104 | September 29, 2006 3:09 PM

One down, more to go.

Soon this country will return from the dark side and step away from Satan.

Posted by Will in Seattle | September 29, 2006 3:55 PM

The republican house leadership were alerted that there "might be a potental problem" 10-11 months ago. And did nothing.

Posted by kevin | September 29, 2006 5:05 PM

The company I'm temping at just donated a few hundred bucks to Charlie Crist's FL governor's campaign. Good to know I'm putting time in at a right wing business.

Posted by Gomez | September 29, 2006 6:38 PM


Where did this go?

The page worked for Rep. Rodney Alexander, R-La., who said Friday that when he learned of the e-mail exchanges 10 to 11 months ago, he called the teen's parents. Alexander told the Ruston Daily Leader, "We also notified the House leadership that there might be a potential problem," a reference to the House's Republican leaders.

Talk about new news. Sheesh!

Posted by eric blair | September 29, 2006 7:52 PM

Sorry to flog the pony but I had to repeat this one. and what happened to fnarf?
"My concern then was the young man's interests and the parents' interests," Alexander said Friday. "We weren't trying to protect anybody except the parents. ... They told me they were comfortable with it and didn't want to pursue anything, didn't want to talk about it anymore."

Well, you know, you might think about protecting the VICTIM here.

Posted by eric | September 29, 2006 8:03 PM

Shades of Jim West. Fucking hypocrite.

Posted by SDA in SEA | September 30, 2006 12:15 AM

Here's an irony that trumps the other irony: Foley was also the sponsor of HR 5749, designed to protect youth from adults on the Internet.

Posted by Lolita | September 30, 2006 2:39 AM

The real scandal isn't the Pedo for Pages stuff, it's "What did the House leadership know and when did they know it?"

And what else have they been covering up?

Also, while his name stays on the ballot and votes will go to his republican replacement... how many people are going to vote for a pedo?

"If you want to vote Republican, vote for the Kiddie Fucker" isn't much of a campaign slogan.

Posted by Aexia | September 30, 2006 6:48 AM

Irony, shmirony.

Pedophiles quite frequently do have a genuine non-sexual love of children in addition to or as a component of their sexual interest, and are often involved in various efforts to programs designed to assist or protect kids.

It's not irony, it's a predictable aspect of the pathology.

Posted by robotslave | September 30, 2006 12:36 PM

"If you want to vote Republican, vote for the Kiddie Fucker" isn't much of a campaign slogan.

It's nothing half of Florida doesn't already do themselves.

You have no idea how much corruption lies in that state's leadership. It's way beyond this guy, Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris. It's universal.

Posted by Gomez | October 1, 2006 6:35 PM


Posted by pagerank | October 13, 2006 2:41 AM
Posted by marvilkg | October 13, 2006 7:05 AM

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