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Wednesday, October 1, 2008


posted by on October 1 at 8:55 AM

Republicans are fretting about McCain’s chances, and here’s why: If new polling like this holds up, McCain is toast:

FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 43

OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 42

PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54, McCain 39

Those are all incredibly striking numbers, and from a polling organization, Quinnipiac, that’s thought to be one of the better ones.

Obama has been behind in Florida since… ever. Suddenly he’s opened an eight-point lead? The new poll suggests it’s all about the economic crisis in Florida, and all about the way that Obama has reacted to the challenge (steady, deliberate) as opposed to McCain (unpredictable, unclear). The Florida polling also suggests that people like this are slowly being won over:

But back to the serious business of reading poll tea leaves… The numbers for Ohio and Pennsylvania are equally shocking.

In Ohio, a state that’s been neck-and-neck (with McCain usually slightly ahead) for most of the fall, Obama is now close to having the ten-point cushion that a lot of people think he will need to counter poll-skewing racial discomfort in the state. And early voting just started in Ohio. Polls can always change, but you can’t change your vote once you’ve cast it, and if a large portion of people in Ohio vote now, in a political environment that clearly favors Obama, that’s bad, bad news for McCain.

Pennsylvania, too, had been close all through the fall—and now a 15-point lead for Obama? That’s huge. Pennsylvania has always been a must win state for Obama. His electoral math really doesn’t work if he’s losing there. (With the assumption that if he’s losing there, he’s also losing OH, FL, VA, NC, and others.) But with Pennsylvania now apparently in Obama’s pocket, along with the unexpected additions of Ohio and Florida, what might the electoral map look like on election night?

It might look like a blowout:


The McCain camp reaction:

These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thinks they’re true.

RSS icon Comments


The last time I was in Florida I fell on my face and landed in some shit. It actually smelled good, so I tried a little of it. People give shit a bad rep, ya know? It's actually pretty delicious. A bonus to this discovery is, of course, slurping it fresh-serve while it oozes out of someones butthole.

Posted by Add Your Comments | October 1, 2008 8:55 AM

More good news: Florida has signed up over 400,000 new voters this year. And like most states where this has happened, it's being attributed to young voters and minorities and is probably largely due to the presence of Obama and Hillary in the primaries.

Posted by michael strangeways | October 1, 2008 8:56 AM

I'm moving from 'depressed' to 'cautious', although I'm still not counting on anything until all the votes are in.

Posted by Abby | October 1, 2008 8:59 AM

Eli --

Please knock wood and don't count all your chickens before they've voted!

Posted by Al | October 1, 2008 9:01 AM

Those numbers are too soft, I wouldn't trust them.

Posted by Andrew | October 1, 2008 9:02 AM

is there something to do w/ large bodies of water affecting the blue vote?

Posted by trufe | October 1, 2008 9:06 AM

That's an inspiring image.

Posted by It's Mark Mitchell | October 1, 2008 9:08 AM

Let us welcome, then, Rev. Wright into the race.

These last couple of weeks are gonna get nasty.

Posted by sw | October 1, 2008 9:09 AM

I believe nothing. I still think the republicans will win this. I've lost all faith.

Posted by heywhatsit | October 1, 2008 9:20 AM

the posters on slog wont be pleased until obama is winning by 110% in the polls

Posted by Bellevue Ave | October 1, 2008 9:22 AM

BA- I won't be pleased until he's won the election, personally. Until then everything can still go wrong. That doesn't mean I think we should curl up and wail about every minute dip in numbers and minor setback, but nothing is over until it's over.

Posted by Abby | October 1, 2008 9:23 AM

I've got two words for all you overconfident Obamatons: Robert Mugabe. If you were stunned by the hangin' chads in Florida and the 5-4 Supreme Court ruling in 2000, you ain't seen nothin' yet. If you were stunned by Ken Blackwell's voter suppression in Ohio in 2004, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

America is ever more rapidly descending into banana republic status, and one of the hallmarks of banana republics is stolen elections. Banana Republicans don't give up power without a fight. America 2008 is much like Ukraine 2004, and come November 5, we may be needing our own Orange Revolution:

The Orange Revolution (Ukrainian: Помаранчева революція, Pomarancheva revolyutsiya) was a series of protests and political events that took place in Ukraine from late November 2004 to January 2005, in the immediate aftermath of the run-off vote of the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election which was compromised by massive corruption, voter intimidation and direct electoral fraud.

Hope I'm wrong.

Posted by cressona | October 1, 2008 9:32 AM

I'm agreeing with BA (yikes!)

It's funny that when the numbers look good for McCain, there's all these people wailing that the Dems are doomed and it's time to move to Canada, but if the numbers look good for Obama, instead of joy and relief, we get doubt in the numbers.

Kind of pathetic really, and maybe one of the reasons that the Dems have had problems with getting and keeping power in Washington.

Posted by michael strangeways | October 1, 2008 9:36 AM

The foundation of our Democracy is confidence and validity of the voting process. If they do steal another election, I hope that people start caring this time or maybe the next...?

Posted by Non | October 1, 2008 9:37 AM

I'm with Abby @11. I'll keep donating money, and crossing my fingers, but I don't trust my fellow Americans to do what's right, and I don't trust the system to award Obama votes to Obama in states that matter. Watch New York somehow go to McCain! So until he's won, I won't be able to feel comfortable.

Posted by spencer | October 1, 2008 9:38 AM

So how do you explain 2006?

Remember these are the polls BEFORE the Palin 'debate' on Thursday and the economic debate.

The narative has changed - even Fox is piling on

I would add Nevada to the list of Blue states and perhaps even Indiana & Missouri. Most elecetions are blowouts - recent history is aside.

Posted by DavidC | October 1, 2008 9:40 AM

The only hope for America and Israel is to stand strong with presidential candidate John McCain. Candidate Barack Obama's father was a Muslim. Saudi Arabians are hoping for a victory by Obama. Obama supports the PLO and is known to have funneled money to Professor Rashid Khalidi, a known terrorist sympathizer, and Obama's campaign received $33,500 in illegal contributions from Palestinians in Hamas-controlled Gaza. Bush is the most pro-Israel president we have ever had. America needs to stand strong with Israel by supporting John McCain now. Many in the Seattle Jewish community appreciate what Bush has done for Israel, and will demonstrate that support by voting against the terrorist sympathizer Obama.

Posted by Josh | October 1, 2008 9:53 AM

Work hard, people, and we may just win this thing. Have you donated to Obama yet? Have you talked to someone you know about voting? Do you have time to volunteer for the campaign? Anything you can do now is going to help a lot in November.

Posted by Greg | October 1, 2008 9:54 AM

Yes after citing this exact source and electoral map a few hours ago, and citing this exact source and electoral map oh what about 100x in the last few months or so, and after preaching cautiion and caustic critiques and demanding Obama shift to the economy and connect with swing voters and in general, do better, cux for a long time it was razor thin and not in the bag, and after noting a couple fo hours ago and yesterday how Obama's emerging into the big victory we need, cuz now this map shows him with Ohio and Florida, of course I agree with this post which basically seconds much of what I been sayin.'

You're welcome.

And fellow Obama supporters, please cheer up a tad or so.

Now it's okay to be cautious and hold back from joy right now. Yes, keep donating.
Yes, you can always lose, blah blah blah. I learned that with fucking McGovern! But McGovern, Kerry, Gore, dukakis none of them had this huge economic tsunami of fear boosting their chances.

Here is the reality:

this economic meltdown event is a game changer that helps Obama. It will dominate the news for the next 5 weeks at least. Game changer in the sense that it moves him from his fairly steady state of being just slightly ahead, to being really, really ahead and in the key states.

Because there's a reason. And it's got nothing to do with being post partisan or appealing to a new spirit of unity blah blah or being cool or being lauded by more nobel laureates or being biracial or post racial or whatever or because his supporters have dreams about him or any of that shit.

It's fear.

Fear of a great depression.

Among middle Americans/swing voters.

So, if you want to not have joy, delay your joy because we really are in deep doo doo economically.....but please get a bit more realistic and see the silver lining is yes all those swing voters and mildly racist crackers and Jews who couldn't quite trust this guy on Israel and Joe Sixpacks and Archie Bunkers and WallMArt Moms are all focused on the economy.

And Obama's doing pretty good in staying on the economy now, being presidential and shit like that. Props to him.

So on top of his base layer of about 40-45% based on coastal elites and intellectuals and liberals who got with him based on hope, and the ofrmer HRC supporters who're with him cuz he fucking won, didn't he and he's a good Democrat, which was 60% of them, now we have a huge layer of the other former HRC supporters and the independents and swing voters who have fear and anger about the economy and fucking want a big fucking change and want it fucking now.


Like I been saying:
Get awy from the vague hope and change shit. Get on the economy. Get away from cultural nonsense. ITE,S. And this tsunami ensures it will remain the economy in the media and nothing McCain can do or say can drown that out.

If this keeps up I would suggest starting to look at close house and senate races as objets of your donations or volunteer efforts, certainly Darcy Burner is close at hand, because it's not enuf to get him in, we really do need 60 senators and huge house majority to get anything done and get that sweeping rescue plan enforced, climate change, green investments etc.

Unity y'all--

Posted by PC | October 1, 2008 9:57 AM

What's it like to win a Presidential Election? I forgot...

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger | October 1, 2008 9:58 AM

Kinda beat me to it. I was gonna say that it looks like Nevada would flip for Obama, too. Real Clear Politics doesn't show a poll since the 21st of Sept, and McCain only had a 1.7pt lead then. If these other states have flipped so heavily...

MO and IN show the same story as NV, but with McCain leading by a couple more pts as of the last polls a few weeks ago.

The surprise might be TX. Last poll was in mid-Aug, and showed McCain up by 10. If FL flipped so hard recently, then TX may have as well.

Posted by NaFun | October 1, 2008 9:58 AM

Strangeways, if theres one thing that turns me off to the Democratic Party, it's a lack of confidence in the party, candidate, and planks and the apparent lack of desire to actually win an election.

And we can all talk about how elections were stolen till we're blue in the face but it doesn't make a goddamn bit of difference if the Democratic Party are a bunch of milquetoasts unwilling to challenge what they perceive as voter fraud.

Posted by Bellevue Ave | October 1, 2008 9:59 AM

What a nice, official-looking map! Guess it's already happened then. So now we know that if things pan out the *other* way in November, then the election must have been stolen by those wascawwy Wepubwicans!

In 2000, Al Gore probably had no idea of the strength of the Kool-Ade he and his minions were dishing out. Thanks to that, Democrats need never lose an election again! They either win, or else have it stolen from them!

Posted by Seajay | October 1, 2008 10:01 AM


No no no.

Kerry definately got his ass beat on 2004.

Posted by Joh | October 1, 2008 10:13 AM

Don't forget that Ohio now has a DEMOCRATIC governor and DEMOCRATIC secretary of state--and we're in the process of early voting (my ballot was supposed to be mailed yesterday, so I hope it gets to me soon!) The secretary of state was hoping, by allowing early absentee voting for everyone, to cut down on the lines on election day--plus all of those early voters can help get those who DO vote on election day to the polls, or work the polls themselves!

No matter how it comes out in Ohio (and it will be close) I don't think the election will be "stolen" this year.

Posted by Nora | October 1, 2008 10:25 AM

they're not gonna give out without a fight. :( i predict a long drawn out battle again after the votes are counted.

Posted by jrrrl | October 1, 2008 10:26 AM

they're not gonna give out without a fight. :( i predict a long drawn out battle again after the votes are counted.

Posted by jrrrl | October 1, 2008 10:29 AM

Eli, I'm curious about the margins in OK, MT, ND and SD? Any ideas?

I have a secret hope that those states, with large Indian populations who probably aren't being polled, might be win-able for Obama. If, like many AA voters, Native voters show up in larger than normal numbers.

I don't have strong suppositions about lots of Native voters showing up, or even that would necessary vote D, but I do wonder if anyone is keeping an eye on them in states where they might figure.

Posted by cranky | October 1, 2008 10:41 AM

@23: Still talking about "drinking the Kool-Ade," huh? What a snappy, fresh line that is! Next, why don't you tell everybody how "all your base are belong to us." Bet nobody's heard that one before either.

Posted by flamingbanjo | October 1, 2008 10:51 AM

Go to for all your electoral collage needs.

Of the four states you listed MT is the most likely to flip - but at that point you are looking at a massacre.

Obama isn't even trying in those states at the moment - his forces are concentrated on nailing down the few remaining swing states.

He can work on MT et al in 2012 8^)

Posted by DavidC | October 1, 2008 10:53 AM

Two words: Bradley Effect

Posted by Eddy968 | October 1, 2008 10:53 AM

North Carolina!

NV is next up to move into Obama's column, followed by MO and IN.

After that, Montana, then probably Arizona (which would be sweet) and Texas (improbable, but by then we're talking Reagan-sized landslide).

I still think in the end it will be close, but I like the current trend.

Posted by Cascadian | October 1, 2008 10:59 AM

The old folks are right, Michelle is definitely thick.

Sir Obamalot:

Posted by I like big butts | October 1, 2008 1:19 PM

For the sake of truthiness: actually currently has McCain at 190, exactly like the map posted. To lose that bad in the election, Obama would have to win 100% of the tossup states.

Obama's widest margin ever in Gallup's daily poll is only 9%. I wouldn't bet money on this map at all. Just sayin'.

Posted by corniche | October 1, 2008 2:20 PM

I'm tired of getting flak for being cynical, cautious, or terrified. It's not inherent weakness, it comes directly from 2000 and 2004 when it was revealed that today's Republicans are shameless liars, and today's Americans are apparently stupid.

Posted by threnody | October 1, 2008 4:42 PM

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