posted by October 1 at 8:55 AMon
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 43
OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 42
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54, McCain 39
Those are all incredibly striking numbers, and from a polling organization, Quinnipiac, that’s thought to be one of the better ones.
Obama has been behind in Florida since… ever. Suddenly he’s opened an eight-point lead? The new poll suggests it’s all about the economic crisis in Florida, and all about the way that Obama has reacted to the challenge (steady, deliberate) as opposed to McCain (unpredictable, unclear). The Florida polling also suggests that people like this are slowly being won over:
But back to the serious business of reading poll tea leaves… The numbers for Ohio and Pennsylvania are equally shocking.
In Ohio, a state that’s been neck-and-neck (with McCain usually slightly ahead) for most of the fall, Obama is now close to having the ten-point cushion that a lot of people think he will need to counter poll-skewing racial discomfort in the state. And early voting just started in Ohio. Polls can always change, but you can’t change your vote once you’ve cast it, and if a large portion of people in Ohio vote now, in a political environment that clearly favors Obama, that’s bad, bad news for McCain.
Pennsylvania, too, had been close all through the fall—and now a 15-point lead for Obama? That’s huge. Pennsylvania has always been a must win state for Obama. His electoral math really doesn’t work if he’s losing there. (With the assumption that if he’s losing there, he’s also losing OH, FL, VA, NC, and others.) But with Pennsylvania now apparently in Obama’s pocket, along with the unexpected additions of Ohio and Florida, what might the electoral map look like on election night?
It might look like a blowout:
The McCain camp reaction:
These polls are laughable. We hope Obama thinks they’re true.