Politics Lies and Damn Lies (Gregoire and Transit Edition)
posted by on November 3 at 19:10 PM
Although a frequently-cited Washington Poll has shown the Mass Transit Now light-rail expansion measure failing by eight percent (and Gregoire leading by a within-the-margin-of-error two percent), those numbers demand, at least, a little context. For statewide races like Gregoire’s, the poll surveyed just 387 voters—about a third as many voters as as were surveyed in the poll on Mayor Greg Nickels I cited this morning. That’s a margin of error of about five percent. For the mass-transit expansion measure, Proposition One, most of those who responded to the poll didn’t even live in the Sound Transit taxing district. If you narrow the poll to those who actually live in the district, several sources who’ve looked at poll results in detail report, you end up with only about 130 people. Although the poll sets the margin of error for the mass transit race at about seven percent, it’s hard to imagine that 130 people are truly representative of a taxing district of millions… which is why I’m optimistic (with apologies to the superstitious) about Proposition 1’s chances at the polls tomorrow.
Some people simply like saying "no."
Some people simply like saying "no."
I really hope that Sound Transit's proposal passes and I am so tired of all these people who only think short-term and not long-term.
The argument that it takes to long is laughable considering the scale and complexity of such a project.
Obama elected
Gregoire re-elected
CA Prop 8 Defeated
Sound Transit 1 passed
60 seat majority in Senate
That's what I want for Christmas, in order of importance to me.....
Well, Erica-- you said this one would pass so I believe you! :)
You promised it would pass, so there's no reason to get worried. I'll cast my ballot knowing your justified flip-flop from a well-reasoned "no" to a well-reasoned "yes" made this all possible!
Thank you for all your help, Erica! :D
Margin of error for that sample size is 8-9%. http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html
If I-985 passes, Prop 1 fails, and/or Rossi wins, it will be a very very bittersweet election.
My predictions so far this election year have sucked, so take this for what it's worth...
I predict transit will get voted down. Not so much because people hate transit, but because people are freaking out about the economy. My guess is that all of the ballot measures asking for money (transit, Pike Place Market, Parks, etc) will struggle; a lot of people will simply vote no on anything that will raise their taxes this year, no matter how worthy the cause. I suspect transit (as well as the others) would have a better chance of passing if people weren't freaking over the fear of the Great Depression II.
#4. Ditto for me, with an added White Christmas for good measure. :D