2008 Department of Counting Chickens
posted by November 4 at 10:05 AM
onMcCain’s current “win percentage” at FiveThirtyEight: 1.1%.
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posted by November 4 at 10:05 AM
onMcCain’s current “win percentage” at FiveThirtyEight: 1.1%.
Comments
Hey, Dan, did you already read Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls?
I offer this out of consideration for your health.
The good news is, if you want stock in the McCain campaign, it's selling at firesale prices.
Can someone please explain to me what this means? Is it a probability to bet on? It makes no sense. 1.1% of what?
O'Reilly gives up:
http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/
@3 dude, I'm sure you have the (internet) skills:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html
@3 The CHZA
www.fivethirtyeight.com > FAQ >
Step 6. Simulations and Win Probabilities > What is Win % or Win Probability?
A number of statistical gurus before work were discussing the methodology used by 538.
Very interesting, but probably boring to the layman.
Last night my son showed me, how it was almost impossible for McCain to win.
@3 Long story short, 538 runs 10,000 election simulations and of those, McCain only wins 1.1% of them (or 110 times).