2008 “The Reverse Bradley Effect”
posted by on October 15 at 14:24 PM
I think I just came in my pants—Mike Easley, the Democratic governor of North Carolina, just said on NPR that there are people in his state who are going to vote for Obama but don’t want to admit it to their friends and family and pollsters. He called it the “reverse Bradley effect,” and Easley says we’ll all be surprised by how well Obama does in North Carolina come election day. You can hear the interview here.
This describes my situation, too. My family is so freaking conservative, and I'm not looking forward to the Holidays when I'm back home and lying the entire time that I voted for McCain to appease them. I bet this is happening with people all over the country.
The Bradley effect is a total myth. Go here:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html
Also this, that shows that it never happened in the first place:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
I just heard from a young-ish colleague here in Ohio that he was breaking with his super conservative family and voting Dem for the first time. He said the negative attacks, plus his mom's insistence that an Obama win & Dem gains in Congress would bring either/both socialism, forced Muslim conversions for all, etc, etc, finally pushed him over the edge.
He was my bellwether for your young-professional-who-leans-conservative-but-is-not-a-total-douchebag Ohio vote.
Don't know what he'd say to a pollster, though.
My family is absurdly conservative, and when they found out I was going to support Obama I was truly almost disowned. They now 'think' I support Nader. It allows us to continue our happy dysfunctional family.
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