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Thursday, October 16, 2008

Red Scare

posted by on October 16 at 10:40 AM

Democrats are feeling pretty good about their chances right now—when it comes to winning the White House. But when it comes to the down-ballot races here in Washington State, it’s a different story.

RedScare.jpg

Something odd is happening in Washington State.

It’s not that Barack Obama is running strong here, up by 10 points in a recent state poll. That makes sense. You have to go back to 1984 to find the last time this state picked a Republican (Ronald Reagan) for president. Plus, Obama’s big win here in the February Democratic caucuses, and the record- shattering turnout he helped inspire, provided a clear early signal that Washington would be his to lose.

What’s odd is that when you look past Obama, you find Democrats down the ticket who are running behind, even with, or just barely ahead of their Republican opponents.

Governor Christine Gregoire is running even with Republican Dino Rossi. Republican congressman Dave Reichert is ahead of his two-time Democratic challenger, Darcy Burner. Our Republican attorney general, Rob McKenna, seems poised to beat back a challenge by Democratic Pierce County executive John Ladenburg. The Republican secretary of state, Sam Reed, seems almost certain to defeat his Democratic opponent, Jason Osgood. And the race for commissioner of public lands is still tight between Eastern Washington Democrat Peter Goldmark and Republican incumbent Doug Sutherland.

All of which raises the distinct possibility that on election night, Washington will be “blue” in only a very superficial sense. If the current political conditions hold, this state could give its 11 Electoral College votes to Obama while at the same time giving the governor’s mansion to Rossi and retaining three top Republicans in statewide offices.

What’s going on? I explore it all here.

RSS icon Comments

1

I was planning to vote for Reed myself, and then I thought about how messed up voting has suddenly got in this state and now I'm not sure.

I don't like the "top two" primary, the "Prefers Party XXX" thing in the voter guide and on the ballots, and the transition to mail-in ballots in this state at all.

Posted by Just Sayin | October 16, 2008 10:49 AM
2

Every Obama/Rossi supporter I talk to says the same thing. They can't explain why they are voting for him - but when it comes to why they won't vote for her They blame her for the Sonics leaving town - seriously.

Posted by DavidC | October 16, 2008 10:50 AM
3

I actually like that we are a thoughtful people and not knee-jerk. (Although the "I'm voting for Rossi because of the Sonics" is THE most asinine voter motivation I've ever heard... next to "I'm not voting for Obama-- not because he's black. I just can't put it into words..." I think what you're looking for here is "because he's a scary black man and I'm a racist".)

That said, the Democratic field in Washington state this year is NOT impressive. With the exception of Goldmark (LOVE Goldmark!), I'm not inspired. I like Gregoire a lot, but her campaign has blown. She had four years to prepare for this rematch and THIS is the best her people can do? Ladenberg and McKenna differ mostly on management style and philosophy, from what I can see, and Ladenberg isn't a man of the future. There is nothing that makes him stand out as a Democrat. (Furthermore, the AG position shouldn't be partisan, but that's another issue.) And I know that Burner gets a lot of net love, but again-- I'm not inspired. Politics is local. Obama FTW, but then I'm all over the map. Party loyalty? Not a driving motivation for me.

Posted by Suze | October 16, 2008 11:03 AM
4

"Isn't a man of the future?" The mind boggles.

Posted by ivan | October 16, 2008 11:10 AM
5

Do some people not know that you don't have to vote for each office? If the race is that close, just start telling people to leave the Governor bubble blank.

Posted by Chris in Tampa | October 16, 2008 11:15 AM
6

Gregoire is a mediocre governor, Reichert has made a non-trivial effort to distance himself from Bush, McKenna and Reed have bipartisan support. Is there a surprise here somewhere? I guess the surprise is that we don't field stronger candidates.

That being said, I really do hope Gregoire and Burner win. Rossi is a putz, and the Eastside needs to go blue.

Posted by Big Sven | October 16, 2008 11:16 AM
7

I don't get it - in the 36th you have two choices and they're both Dems ... why is that bad?

Posted by Will in Seattle | October 16, 2008 11:22 AM
8

Haven't had time to read the article yet, but maybe we can throw out Dwight Pelz as the Dem chair? What the F has he been doing? more superfluous promotion for Obama, who didn't need so much help here. Was the perpetually ambitious Pelz and his subordinates looking out for their next position in an Obama administration and not the party in our state?(McDermott and his possible sucessor Murray should always watch their backs) Pelz was a terrible county councilman, now a terrible Democratic Chair.

Posted by mareada | October 16, 2008 11:23 AM
9

According to Goldy over at Horsesass.org, Burner is leading Reichert.

Posted by I Got Nuthin' | October 16, 2008 11:29 AM
10

A "change election" cuts both ways.

Posted by Bub | October 16, 2008 11:30 AM
11

Anybody who watched the debate last night between Gregoire and Rossi cannot help but wonder why the race is so close. Christine kicked his butt on every issue; stating specific facts to his mumbled platitudes, but you would never know it from her campaign. I can't figure out why the ads she is running don't state her accomplishments. Instead they are warm and fuzzy "aren't I a nice person so vote for me" cream puffs. No wonder no one thinks she's done anything. Which is bullshit. If she just ran clips of the debate, Rossi wouldn't have a chance.

Posted by crazycatguy | October 16, 2008 11:38 AM
12

Au contraire being all wony and lawyerlike is surely CG's big problem. She's not likable and she never gets her personal story out, started out as sec. then went to law school etc. etc.

And now having supported megaroad projects twice, the viaduct and the big failed propr 1., she's way out of touch with enviro liberal base.

She also goes around promoting her big achievementis makingthe state a good place for business -- hardly the change we need. Not even a demo. idea. I mean it's a good thing but totally fails to excite base or new voters etc.

Perhaps she should have been a stronger democrat then she wouldn't be in such trouble. but now it's too late. she has a race on her hands. If you can forgive her for wanting so many awful roads go ahead and donate etc.

Posted by PC | October 16, 2008 11:56 AM
13

The people in this state seem to have a hard time connecting their political choices to the real-life impacts of their choices.

Plus they seem prone to believing in unicorns - like that there is anything that can done to relieve congestion on the roads - and then voting for whatever candidate tells them the fairytale du jour they most want to believe.

And then there's the pervasive narcissistic flake factor, as in voting to act out your temper tantrum about the Sonics instead of picking the candidate who will help you get or keep your job and healthcare, buy or keep your house, and be able to send your kids to college.

Posted by I am your Mother | October 16, 2008 11:58 AM
14

The people in this state seem to have a hard time connecting their political choices to the real-life impacts of their choices.

Plus they seem prone to believing in unicorns - like that there is anything that can done to relieve congestion on the roads - and then voting for whatever candidate tells them the fairytale du jour they most want to believe.

And then there's the pervasive narcissistic flake factor, as in voting to act out your temper tantrum about the Sonics instead of picking the candidate who will help you get or keep your job and healthcare, buy or keep your house, and be able to send your kids to college.

Posted by I am your Mother | October 16, 2008 12:01 PM
15

The people in this state seem to have a hard time connecting their political choices to the real-life impacts of their choices.

Plus they seem prone to believing in unicorns - like that there is anything that can done to relieve congestion on the roads - and then voting for whatever candidate tells them the fairytale du jour they most want to believe.

And then there's the pervasive narcissistic flake factor, as in voting to act out your temper tantrum about the Sonics instead of picking the candidate who will help you get or keep your job and healthcare, buy or keep your house, and be able to send your kids to college.

Posted by I am your Mother | October 16, 2008 12:07 PM
16

Sam Reed handled the '04 guv election fairly. I voted for him in the primary and might do so again in the general.

Posted by DOUG. | October 16, 2008 12:10 PM
17

I think the Secretary of State, AG, and Land Comisar positions just seem like they are more like administrative positions that shouldn't really be political. So if the incumbent is doing an ok job, or seems to be, people probalby figure they shouldn't be voted out just because of their party afiliation. It would almost be like firing Joe the Plumber just becuase he's a McCain supporter. (I'd fire him becuase he's unlicensed and a liar.)

Posted by kinaidos | October 16, 2008 12:11 PM
18

The people in this state seem to have a hard time connecting their political choices to the real-life impacts of their choices.

Plus they seem prone to believing in unicorns - like that there is anything that can done to relieve congestion on the roads - and then voting for whatever candidate tells them the fairytale du jour they most want to believe.

And then there's the pervasive narcissistic flake factor, as in voting to act out your temper tantrum about the Sonics instead of picking the candidate who will help you get or keep your job and healthcare, buy or keep your house, and be able to send your kids to college.

Posted by I am your Mother | October 16, 2008 12:11 PM
19

I'm an Obama / Gregoire / Goldman / Reed / McKenna voter. I would only vote a straight ticket if each candidate on that ticket earned my vote.

I'm not thrilled with Gregoire - she just hasn't been an effective leader and hasn't accomplished much of anything that is important to me - but I am voting against Rossi. Better to have an ineffective leader than an effective leader who enacts policies against my interests.

I don't care about the CPL position, so I'm falling back on my "vote out the incumbant" philosophy. Besides, Sutherland seems prone to corruption to me.

Osgood is a freakin nutcase, and Sam Reed hasn't been terrible at his job. He doesn't really have a lot of decision-making power anyhow, most of it is in the hands of the law.

McKenna is awesome -- when he speaks on KUOW's Weekday I'm always pleased by how rational and fair he is. He is also very much bound by law. I don't want a partisan AG, and he has very much demonstrated that he is not partisan, unlike Ladenburg.

Posted by My votes | October 16, 2008 12:19 PM
20

This isn't odd at all. Republicans are on the upswing in Washington state for the exact same reason that Democrats are on the upswing in Washington DC. When times look bad, people kick out the incubents. The incumbents in Washington DC are Republicans. The incumbents in Washington state are Democrats.

What, you thought that voters were undergoing an ideological conversion or something? Yeah, right.

Posted by David Wright | October 16, 2008 12:32 PM
21

David Wright is right. The "country is moving in the wrong direction", as all the polls tell us, so the current occupants are in trouble.

Posted by Fnarf | October 16, 2008 12:43 PM
22

If you're voting for Obama and you want to see his policies implemented in this state, and not obstructed and undermined, Gregoire is your only choice.

Pay no attention to right-wing dildos like David Wright. Not all change is change for the better. Rossi's brand of governance would be the same crony capitalism and ideological clusterfuck in Olympia as the Bush administration has been in Washington DC.

I mean really, do you want wingnut fundies sitting on the Pharmacy Board? Do you want some Tim Eyman pave-it-over butt boy as your Secretary of Transportation?

You know you don't, unless you're David Wright, or John Bailo, or Lou Guzzo, or the wack jobs at Sound Politics.

Every public official who ever lived is going to piss everybody off a little bit at one time or another. Get over your petty snits and re-elect Gregoire. She's been damn good for this state, and with a Democratic administration in DC she'll be even better.


Posted by ivan | October 16, 2008 12:46 PM
23

I'm not supporting Wright's politics, just his conclusion. Very few voters vote on policy positions.

Posted by Fnarf | October 16, 2008 1:05 PM
24

Fnarf @ 23:

I get that. I also get that it's in the right wing's interests that people continue to vote on superficialities. How else could anybody consider Dino Rossi and his nice smile an acceptable choice for Governor?

Posted by ivan | October 16, 2008 1:10 PM
25

Ummmm, McKenna, Reichert, Reed, and Sutherland are all republican incumbents. Does the Fnarf-Wright theory only apply to governors in this state only?

Cool chart at 528 -- WA has by far the 2nd most extreme conservative and liberal population in the country right behind Oregon. Our convservatives are the 3rd most extreme in the nation behind Oregon and Tennessee.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/road-to-270-oregon.html

Posted by jrrrl | October 16, 2008 1:17 PM
26

Jrrrl @ 25: The Fnarf-Wright theory is about statistical trends. It states that in aggregate, on average, and usually, support for incumbents rises and falls with the economy. Tt doesn't claim to accurately predict the point-spread outcome of each and every race. And it's more than the prognostications of two guys posting to an obscure blog on the internet; it's a long- and well-established fact of political science.

Posted by David Wright | October 16, 2008 1:28 PM
27

I didn't expect them to save the Sonics, but I expected some leadership and a legislative vote. I think the sonics issue is going to cost state democrats hundreds, if not a few thousand votes.

I won't vote for any republicans, but I am seriously considering punishing several democrats in the state leadership for their inaction on the sonics (no money from me this year...all went to Obama). I may write in a few "sonics" on my ballot.

Rossi is such a douchebag that gregoire will still get my vote, but I'm not impressed by her running of the government.

Posted by cw | October 16, 2008 1:39 PM
28

Gov. Gregoire is a damn good Governor. Republican lies to the contrary, she is better than asshole Rossi in every sense. She also supported Obama early on and Obama should come here and state his unequivical support for her.

Posted by Vince | October 16, 2008 2:49 PM
29

@ 26 - then why isn't the trend applying to the Washington incumbents other than Gregoire?

Posted by UnoriginalAndrew | October 16, 2008 3:07 PM
30

Maybe people just want to throw the bastards out. All of them.

Posted by Seajay | October 16, 2008 3:49 PM

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