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Monday, September 8, 2008

Re: How the West (And the Presidency?) Will Be Won

posted by on September 8 at 15:07 PM

Furthering the idea that the West is a big part of Obama’s game plan, his campaign just released this response ad, complete with bull whip sound-effect and a tough western guy who says “Whoa” to the idea that McCain and Palin are mavericks.

It’s in response to this:

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Thank God he actually used the word "lie."

Posted by Gitai | September 8, 2008 3:11 PM

I like the way the McSame ad flashes those headlines by so fast that you can't even read most of them.

Posted by Mike of Renton | September 8, 2008 3:21 PM

Is it me or does Sarah Palin's hair at the end of the first commercial look like the FLDS's hair style from an angle?

Posted by apres_moi | September 8, 2008 3:23 PM

tit for tat ain't gonna bury that old man.

Posted by max solomon | September 8, 2008 3:23 PM

This is a good start, but they have to go beyond saying the McCain is "more of the same." They have to show that he's a terrible candidate. The stuff of The Daily Show is more biting and more effective.

Posted by JC | September 8, 2008 3:33 PM

I'm dumb, how does McCain vote with Bush 90% of the time? Does Bush take stances on every bill?

Posted by jrrrl | September 8, 2008 3:34 PM

Oh jrrrl you silly bear I will eat you alive.

Posted by Herpes Triangle | September 8, 2008 3:39 PM

Parts of the West might swing to Obama, but AZ, UT, ID, WY won't which means Obama still needs MI, OH, or VA, FL...

Posted by michael strangeways | September 8, 2008 3:42 PM

Am I the only one who thinks it's weird that both Obama and McCain are campaigning on their track record of fighting the Republican establishment? It's bizarre that the main thrust of the McCain commercial is that he's got experience taking on Republicans!

Posted by Mark | September 8, 2008 3:53 PM


I agree. It's nice to see them fighting back--so un-Democratic!--but it's a bit scary to see Obama's campaign is so much on the defensive.

Just a few months ago, Obama's ads were all about Obama and McCain's ads were all about Obama. It seems--though, I'll admit, I don't actually own a TV--as though that trend might have reversed.

Posted by Dan | September 8, 2008 4:03 PM
Posted by matt | September 8, 2008 4:06 PM

I'd be happier if BO adopted this as a campaign ad:

Posted by stinkbug | September 8, 2008 4:23 PM

I'm glad to see that Obama is calling out Sarah Palin for having been for "the bridge to nowhere" before she was against it.

But there's only so far this argument will go. It relies on logic, truth, reality. Sarah Palin transcends logic, truth, reality.

An analogy: There are Russians who to this day--if you told them that Stalin massacred millions of his own people--would tell you to go bleep yourself. Once people identify a politician as "one of us" (once they identify with a politician), they simply will not hear the truth.

The ability to accept lies and delusions--to deny reality--is part of the human condition. It is a survival mechanism that has been programmed into us by millions of years of natural selection.

Posted by cressona | September 8, 2008 4:28 PM

The Western Mountain State theory is a fairy tale.

Right now the Mountain states have a total of just 44 electoral college votes; Pa OH and MI together have 58 and PA and OH together have 41.

Now inside the group, the mtn. states McCain is definitely going to win are AZ, ID UT Wy totalling about 23 ECV.

The following are definitely voting for Obama: NONE.

In the real clear politics map (no toss up view, based on pooll averages) McCain is ahead in every Mtn. state and Obama has a lead in just CO and NM -- a total of 14. That's less than MI folks.

Here are the “Mountain West” electoral college votes -- a funny thing to leave out in a discussion of electability, no? -- —Montana 3, Idaho 4, Wyoming 3, Nevada 5, Utah 5, Colorado 9, Arizona 10, and New Mexico 5

If you throw in the other two states that touch the big old North American Mountain cordillera that would include Texas (34 ECV) and Alaska, too (3 ECV) both of which are obviously voting for McCain.

Sorry Slog. It's the same old map centering on the rust belt, with just a tad bit of difference with CO being more in play and NM and NV being in play -- the way they were last time. And VA in play I guess.

But Obama and Biden and Clinton are campaigning in the rust belt, WI, FL etc. all the same old swing states. Obviously Obama doesn't buy the theory espoused in this post. Not one bit. Because it's faulty. Because the writer won't count the electoral votes or be a realist.

Even mentioning AZ UT ID in an article about a new map is silly isn't it? Obviously this is a psych. effort to deflect the overall very bad news that Obama's dropped about 12 points in about as many days.
Texas 34

Posted by PC | September 8, 2008 4:30 PM

Normally I find PC shrill and irritating, but in this case I agree with him.

Do the math. Look at the polls. Obama is polling ahead in New Mexico, and even in Colorado. In every other mountain state, he is significantly behind in the polls. He has little hope of winning any of them besides NM and CO.

And the math doesn't add up either. They are all small electoral states. He'd have to win ALL of them to make up for the loss of any one of the big electoral rustbelt states that are in play. And that simply isn't going to happen.

Sure, he should campaign in the west. I do believe in a 50 state strategy for the long term. But for this election, this year, he cannot count on these mountain west states. Not unless McCain makes a horrendous gaff in the next couple months (a worse gaff than picking a batshit crazy evangelist as a VP candidate).

Posted by Reverse Polarity | September 8, 2008 4:48 PM

using logic and sound argument against ... creationists????

oh shit

Posted by formerly OR Matt | September 8, 2008 5:22 PM


The ability to accept lies and delusions--to deny reality--is part of the human condition. It is a survival mechanism that has been programmed into us by millions of years of natural selection.

Does this explain your continued support of ST?

Posted by Henry | September 8, 2008 6:24 PM

@6: Actually, yes. The White House has an official position on almost any bill of importance, since Bush has to sign them or threaten to veto them.

The ratings come from non-partisan political publications like Congressional Quarterly. If politicians dispute them, it's the timeframe they dispute. 90% is McCain's average across Bush's term. Year-by-year, it's varied from 77% (2005) to 95% (2007).

Posted by mistermix | September 8, 2008 7:03 PM

Both videos aren't up anymore.

Posted by Will in STL | September 8, 2008 7:09 PM

nevermind... down for site maintenance.

Posted by Will in STL | September 8, 2008 7:14 PM

Who's yanking off all the fucking YouTubes??

Posted by Sirkowski | September 8, 2008 7:46 PM

Palin IS the last frontier woman and she is VERY appealing to all the Western States.

The theory that Dems. are going to carry Montana - Colorado etc is now political hailing mary, cross you legs hard and tight for luck stuff.

Obama won't. Sorry.

Mc Cain WAS a champion of immigration reform - Hispanics will link to the appeal of the frontier woman and Obama is fucked.

This is not an intellectual sprint, but a guts and blood race to win. Palin does well in the guts and blood corner - Gun issues in the West anybody? Recreational fishing and hunting anybody? More drilling anybody?

Colo. has tons of oil shale, so says Biden, oil equal to Saudi Arabia ... and who will promise billions to start extracting it? Colo. could be one of the richest states in America if it happens - course who want all all all that money? Not democrat in Nay York of SFO.

In the old and new West, NO BODY is castigated by their religion, or their family matters. Both, no body's business. Idaho defeated an anti gay initiative. Yes, look it up. Most of their grandmothers were pregnant before marriage and so are their sisters.

The three days of smear on a strong frontier woman and motivated woman have done real damage in the West.

The mountain West is ultra Patriot - who has that issued locked? The area is dominated by hundreds of defense installations of all stripes. Tons of recruits.

Did someone mention Mormons? Lots of them in the West, very anti choice, they vote, they vote - it is in the Articles of Faith, they donate and will be a factor.

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana will stay red. Period. Likely, New Mexico, Colo., and Arizona.

Plus, Maverick One mates with La Maverick Deux, mon Dieu, merde.

Posted by John | September 8, 2008 8:07 PM

The only folks who care about the Bridge are a few lost Democrats.

It will never be built - and this stupid?? Gov. TOOK THE FED'S MONEY AND SPENT IT ON OTHER PROJECTS. Geez, if anything it is funny and makes her seem even stronger as a hardball winner fucking over the halls of DC, which are so badly rated by all Americans.

Gosh, what fucking gall. She outsmarted the feds and their checkbook for her state. Just what every Gov. in America tries to do every day. Most fail. Not Palin.

Cresson, like your posts, but you are not seeing the big picture on this one. Lots of good Dems seem equally befuddled.

Posted by Adam | September 8, 2008 8:19 PM

Maverick is Mc Cains word -
Who took a chance in his VP pic?

And then they run flattering shots of both to show who the Maverick, in his maverickness picked, the everyone agrees so maverick Palin.

What a mess. Obama is awash in beltway defeatism.

Posted by Earl | September 8, 2008 8:30 PM

1. Forget the west. It is still about Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Win 2 of those and you win federally.

2. Republicans vote on appearances. Logic doesn't work. Republican speeches work like this.

a) I'm like you, we're in this together, wouldn't you like to have a beer with me? the other guys are elitist, I'm obviously not.
b) Lie. Lie. Lie.
c) Knock down a few straw men for good measure
d) More lies.
e) Rinse. Repeat.

I'm not sure how to beat this, given that people except the straw men and lies if they are repeated enough. Do you fight fire with fire? I think the tag line "why do they lie?" repeated with "Why are they still lying?" would be a good tactic. Don't just say they are lying a few times and think that people get it and move back to "Hope" etc.. Keep saying it over and over again. Until you think it has become old. Then keep saying it some more. Each campaign ad with a new lie and taglines:

1. "Tired of lies?"
2. "4 more years of lies"
3. "Why are they lying"?

Again, the key is repetition.

Posted by ConcernedCanadian | September 9, 2008 12:26 AM

Concerned Canadian ... one more thing and this BAFFLES me. There is this fascination with the republican party. I think it just sounds nice and pleasing, and comanding.

Some of the most popular and loved politicians in this country are maverick republicans, democrats are always pussies ... Even JFK.

There is no logic ... it just is.

Posted by formerly OR Matt | September 9, 2008 9:40 AM

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