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Monday, June 16, 2008

McCain’s Chances, Historically Speaking

posted by on June 16 at 9:44 AM

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

Details at Politico.

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I hear the deadenders in the GOP want LIEberman for VP or Secretary of State.

I'll put it this way - Bob Dole was a far far better candidate, braver, smarter, and more honest than McCain ever will be - and one who had a better chance.

Posted by Will in Seattle | June 16, 2008 9:50 AM

I keep telling you Obama is the black FDR.

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger | June 16, 2008 9:54 AM

If Lieberman decides to jump ship before the election, he's a pathetic piece of shit. Obama supported the guy, and he decided to put a knife in his back.

I hope they can kick his sorry ass out of the caucus come November. If that happens and Obama wins the presidency, he might as well pack his bags and go home.

Posted by demo kid | June 16, 2008 9:56 AM

let's not get overconfident, lefties.

Posted by max solomon | June 16, 2008 10:06 AM

I've got news for all you smug, self-righteous Obamanatics. Historians are a bunch of elitists. Let's see what those historians' opinions would be if they weren't living their comfy, white-collar historian's lives. I'd no sooner trust a historian's opinion on history than I (or Hillary or McCain) would trust an economist's opinion on economics.

Anyway, we're not even talking about history here, i.e. the past. We're talking about the future. And if I want an opinion about the future, I consult a qualified psychic.

Posted by cressona | June 16, 2008 10:07 AM

Unless of course they pull a September surprise and put up a different candidate, according to this guy:

I suppose it's within the realm of possibility.

Posted by bearseatbeats | June 16, 2008 10:09 AM

I think McCain ought to run with this one. There's nothing Americans like more than an underdog, unless it's an underdog who thumbs his nose at a bunch of history professors.

The satisfaction of a McCain win will make the Depression and perpetual Mideast war that come with a McCain administration that much more palatable.

Posted by cressona | June 16, 2008 10:13 AM

Aggh, I don't want to see this. There's no room for overconfidence amongst Democrats, and Obama still has a few months to screw it up here.

Posted by tsm | June 16, 2008 10:13 AM


I'm sorry..."qualified psychic"? Is that like "military intelligence" or "conservative think tank"?

Posted by bearseatbeats | June 16, 2008 10:19 AM

@9 - I'll admit that sarcasm is often difficult to detect in print, but come on!

Posted by Levislade | June 16, 2008 10:24 AM


Oh come now. I was playing along and taking it to the logical extreme.

Perhaps I should have inserted a little ;) for you.

Posted by bearseatbeats | June 16, 2008 10:31 AM

Really though, in all seriousness, McCain ought to run with this one. And speaking as an Obama supporter, I agree with tsm @8; this scares the hell out of me.

In 1948, Tom Dewey was the Mitt Romney of his day, and Harry Truman was the Harry Truman of his day. Dewey was Mr. Perfect, Truman was unpopular, and everyone--including Truman's mom (or was it his mother-in-law?)--just assumed Dewey would win. Well, as you all know, there never was a Pres. Dewey.

You just can never underestimate the pride and identification of the American voter. McCain could offer a prescription for the decline and devastation of America and yet, if he positions himself as the more "American" candidate, Obama is toast. To quote Fnarf from a previous thread, this is a "referendum on reality," and to paraphrase Fnarf, I'm none too confident reality will win.

Posted by cressona | June 16, 2008 10:38 AM

@7 - underdog?

Do you realize how many BILLIONS his wife has looted from hardworking Americans?

Posted by Will in Seattle | June 16, 2008 10:45 AM

for change we need not only OBama to win but to win big and carry in a supermajority of Democratic senators. Over 60.

And to keep that on the ground Obama-Dem grass roots going after teh election to pressure the 4 or 5 GOP Senators our way.

It isn't enuf for him to win you need 60 votes in the Senate. IF the seantors representing the smallest states lined up together the 40 who can block anything only rep. 20% of the people. Ie we do not have majority rule. You need to have senators representing like 60-80% of allthe people to get shit done.

So when I suggest strategies and shit to win and not be complacent -- it
s not to dump on Saint Barack, it's to (a) win and (b) to govern & (c) to have real change.


Now in this process I'd suggest immediately seating all delegates from FL and MI -- why not? Obama wins anyway duh.

And pick HRC as VP. Unity. don't let even 5% of her voters fall off or not vote.

And, start the PRes-VP campaigning now. And get every white voter in LA MI SC NC, too. And raise the black and white turnout everywhere. Get every fucking vote possible. Now this means the HRC haters have to hold their nose -- tough shit.

There's no one else who would bring that much energy and following on board so quickly.

What's going to happen, Obama to take until end of August to pick VP? STart campaigning a few months from now?

Let's get on with it whoever it is.

Posted by PC | June 16, 2008 10:46 AM


Speaking of unity, SusanUnPC, I'm counting on you being able to gather up all those false rumors you spread about Obama and put them back in the bag. As a show of unity. Can you do that, please?

Posted by elenchos | June 16, 2008 10:49 AM

Did they have Diebold in 1932?

Posted by wf | June 16, 2008 10:58 AM

What do President Gore and President Kerry's biographers have to say about this?

Posted by RonK, Seattle | June 16, 2008 11:14 AM

Are you trying to get Obama killed?

Posted by John | June 16, 2008 11:32 AM

Yeah, fine, whatever. Don't get cocky.

Posted by Hernandez | June 16, 2008 11:47 AM

Yeah keep underestimating McCain. Odrama and his followers will be surprised in November that he's just another loser Dems picked.

Posted by Odrama | June 16, 2008 11:48 AM

We will re-defeat nObama !!!

Posted by clintonsarmy | June 16, 2008 11:51 AM

If Obama picks the right V.P. and McCain picks the wrong one, everything could change. And if McCain picks, say, Condi Rice? Or Obama picks Colin Powell?

Posted by Vince | June 16, 2008 1:53 PM

I'll tell you what has good enormous whozeewhatsit!!!

Posted by Christopher Frizzelle's Enormous Whozeewhatsit | June 16, 2008 3:19 PM

do not underestimate the ability of the Democratic Party to screw this up.

Posted by Lee Gibson | June 17, 2008 9:12 PM

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