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Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Hillary For You and Me

posted by on June 18 at 11:02 AM

Remember being told that only Hillary could carry those big, must-win swing states—your Ohios, your Floridas, your Pennsylvanias—and so we just had to support her? Goodbye to all that:

Just a few weeks after claiming the slot as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. Barack Obama has overtaken Republican contender Sen. John McCain in a swing-state poll of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania voters… The poll, which surveyed 1,396 likely Ohio voters from June 9 to 16, found Obama edged out McCain in a match-up 48 percent to the Republican’s 42 percent.

In Florida, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to the Republican’s 43 percent, while he leads by a double-digit margin in Pennsylvania, 52 percent to McCain’s 40 percent.

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haaaaaaaah haaaaaaaaah

Hilary supporters dreams crushed.

Posted by Non | June 18, 2008 11:10 AM

yes, all the Hillary supporters knew that Obama would win if he got the nomination.

That's why it was so important for them to stop him!

Posted by brett | June 18, 2008 11:10 AM

Come on, now. Please, ease off on bashing Clinton supporters. We need every progressive and/or traditional Democratic vote we can get. Not only are we pushing for an Obama victory in November, we want a landslide so that the Democratic Party has a true "Mandate from the People" to lead the country in new directions. That being said, I'm skeptical about that Florida poll.

Posted by Bub | June 18, 2008 11:20 AM

Former HRC supporter here: this poll makes me happy. There's a long road to the election, to be sure, but better this positive variance versus a negative one.

And I know this is utterly futile, but could the Obama supporters try to attain a state of gracious winners? It helps no one to be a horse's ass.

Posted by Jubilation T. Cornball | June 18, 2008 11:25 AM

...this is what i love about the stranger/slog. it's relentless, never ending ability to always be right AND to let everyone know it...of course, without the comedy there would be no drama...and thus no one to read it's paper...i agree: ease off hillary and her supporters...jeeze.

Posted by uhmmm | June 18, 2008 11:26 AM

@4 horse asses are strong and muscular.

Posted by cochise. | June 18, 2008 11:33 AM
Posted by Jubilation T. Cornball | June 18, 2008 11:38 AM

Hey: no one said he HAD to pick her. What was said was hey look he's behind in these states and she does better in polls so it would help the ticket if he did pick her.
I don't think anyone said it's the only way to go, only that the data at that time suggested it would help.

Btw for a long time now Obama has been ahead of McCain in Pa.
So that part's not news at all.
For a while he has been ahead in OH.
So, that part's not news either.

As to FL you are cherry picking poll data.

REalclear has averages of several polls and this is what they show (Obama's no. comes first then McCain then the spread):

Pennsylvania 47.8 40.5 Obama +7.3
Ohio 47.5 41.3 Obama +6.2
Michigan 40.7 42.3 McCain +1.6
Wisconsin 49.0 41.0 Obama +8.0
Virginia 44.3 43.8 Obama +0.5
Florida 42.0 47.7 McCain +5.7

As noted earlier, this shows improvement for Obama overall and in Pa (building on a winning margin) in OH and even in FL -- though still behind in FL.

This also shows Obama dropping half a point in VA from recent realclear averages and Obama losing Michigan.

So...bottom line is if you lose FL and MI you can still win but you are going to just eke it out.

Not the sweeping change election we need.

IT's fascinating why providing data of this sort and discussing it is still viewed by some Obama folks as evil treachery meriting gleeful denunciation.

It's very cultish. Very divisive, you know.

Oh another thing:

none of this actually says squat about the thesis that HRC as VP would help the ticket -- for that you'd have to compare Obama v. McCain with Obama/HRC v. McCain-Romney or someone.

There are some polls which compare Obama-HRC with just Obama and as I have noted twice already they don't show that adding HRC to the ticket helps.

So the assumption in this post that ex HRC supporters are equally cultish is just wrong.

As been sayin the point is to win.

The gleeful tone of this post is a bit at odds with the overall reality that if you look at polls fairly and not cherry pick you'd conclude "we" (Note: we means us who want Obama to win. Note to Obamatrons: this includes HRC supporters ohmygod!!!)
can eke it out by like two electoral college votes.

Ok that's a win but not so great given the horrible generic numbers for the GOP and the great numbers for getting out of the war and other issues.

Oh and also: still waiting for the math on how to win VA NC GA MI thesis is that you will need not only higher turnout among AAs but also every single white Democratic voter to come out and vote for Obama....not sure how dissing HRC supporters helps that goal.....

There's no red america, no blue america, there's just one america except for those nasty evil people who supported HRC, seems to be the new mantra of some Obama supporters.

Um, folks? That's stupid. Assuming you want to win and win big.

Posted by PC | June 18, 2008 11:44 AM

The Republican consultants are talking about a McGovern-Goldwater-Mondale-sized near-sweep. I smell 49 states, maybe even all 50.

Posted by Fnarf | June 18, 2008 11:45 AM

I for one am not surprised by the polls about Pennsylvania. Which is what many of us from there tried to tell all the Clintonites who went on and on and on about how we were going to lose PA to McCain if we didn't elect Clinton ...

Hint: we're going to win Texas too. By a landslide.

Posted by Will in Seattle | June 18, 2008 11:46 AM

We're not bashing Hillary supporters. Just mocking the Harriet Christian types who are somehow convinced that only Hillary can bring about the Liberal Rapture, and that Obama is, by corollary, an agent of Satan.

And LOL at PC accusing others of cherry picking poll data.

Posted by tsm | June 18, 2008 11:49 AM

McCain will be doing Viagra commercials before the end of this decade.

Posted by DOUG. | June 18, 2008 11:50 AM

Let's hope he keeps the lead, and doesn't pick a bone-head for a VP (we've seen that lead to disater).

I wonder if the Slog will post about the possibilty being thrown around that Obama will choose a Republican for his VP. And further, who that republican should be.

Posted by Original Monique | June 18, 2008 11:58 AM

I wonder if Bush's plans to drill for oil off the shores of Florida might not make it even worse.

After all, there's Failure.

And then there's Bush Failure.

Which, quite frankly, is all McSame has.

Posted by Will in Seattle | June 18, 2008 12:09 PM

Will, you don't have to say "quite frankly" every time. We all know you can't edit yourself.

Posted by elenchos | June 18, 2008 12:14 PM

Uh... I don't have a problem with Hillary supporters, just those that are using her failure and society's sexism to justify their .... I don't really know what it is.

I think they're calling themselves pumas now. Dunno what that means. Dunno how someone can hate every dem except Clinton, vote McCain and still think they're going to reform the democratic party. Why don't they just try to get Clinton to change parties?

Posted by daniel | June 18, 2008 12:31 PM

This can't be right. After all, Hillary DESTROYED THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. Didn't she?

Posted by umvue | June 18, 2008 12:33 PM

My secret hope is that Obama completely crushes McCain in a Regan-esque landslide victory in November.

My secret fear is that there is still enough racism smoldering below the surface to prevent Obama from being elected, despite Bush being the least popular president in a century, an unpopular war, global warming, and $5 a gallon gas.

These polls will help me sleep better.

Posted by Reverse Polarity | June 18, 2008 12:41 PM

Wow! PC is talking about cherry picking polls? Really? You're the master of that. And as far as the right-wing RCP site, they do an average of polls for a very long period of time. The average should be done for a brief period (e.g., no more than 4 weeks, preferably 2).

Posted by Reality Check | June 18, 2008 12:43 PM

america is neither sexist nor racist. what it is, is sick to death of republicans.

Posted by al "I shoulda waited" gore | June 18, 2008 12:47 PM

Obama is going to win so big that it will make the 1964 race look close, Hell, McCain will be wishing he did as well as Herbert Hoover in 1932.

Boys and Girls, Don't adjust your TV's on election night: That BLUE map of the United States is correct. And just ignore that one red spot in the southeast corner; those people marry their sisters.

Posted by Cato the Younger Younger | June 18, 2008 12:52 PM

Was it ever true? I think a lot of people pretended it was.

Posted by Jason | June 18, 2008 12:56 PM

HEY! The enemy is the Republicants and McLame. Stop bashing each other. And may I remind you the election is still five months away.

Posted by Vince | June 18, 2008 1:40 PM

Polls this early mean almost nothing, but it's still encouraging.

Posted by east coaster | June 18, 2008 1:55 PM

Man, it's going to be a long five months ...

Posted by Will in Seattle | June 18, 2008 3:07 PM

five months is better than four more years.

Posted by skye | June 18, 2008 3:30 PM

We will re-defeat NO-Bama in November!!!!

Posted by clintonsarmy | June 18, 2008 4:28 PM

The biggest mistake Dems can make is underestimate the opponent. McCain's Repub nomination campaign was pronounced dead last summer and he ended up winning it. Don't get cocky is all i'm saying.

Posted by mere mortals | June 18, 2008 4:33 PM

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