I've always thought of myself as a 1%
I guess i'm really a 10%

She's toast.

Do the math.

Hillary's math problem.

YES WE WILL! Clinton's speech tonight in Columbus was amazing. I am a college student, but I'm donating all I can to her campaign. What an inspiring victory.

Defect? No.

Not vote? Absolutely.

Nothing like a disenfranchised generation.

Which proves what ECB, that Clinton attracts uneducated white racists who would vote for a Republican before they'd vote for a black man?

I consider it my civic duty to vote. That's why come november 7th when the choice comes down between clinton or mccain i'll be writeing in mike gravel

@2, you wish. Hang on, the ride's not over yet. There's Penn. and Puerto Rico. I think we all wish this was over, but it's still on. I'm sad that as a Hillary supporter, I'm more affable to support Obama if he gets the nomination, whereas it seems Obama supporters will stomp and throw themselves to the floor in tears if Hillary gets it.

Then there's all the other polls where Obama kicks McCains ass:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

And all the other polls where Hillary is a 50-50:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

And hillary supporters liking mccain means we should support her??

Man - watching the dems rip themselves apart is just the present Republicans want.

I hope you are right about thinking Clinton can win the Presidential Election if she's the candidate Erica.

Gloat away, I feel so sad at the sense of loss for something that could change a political landscape that makes me hate the country I adopted when I immigrated here - and if the election were tomorrow with a Clinton candidate I'm just not sure I could bring myself to leave the house and choke down the bile that would be induced by voting Clinton.

There is no fucking way that 25% will go to McCain. That is what you call an empty threat ECB, and a desperate one at that.

ugh...i could do without tonight. if hillary wins, i don't really care what happens in november.

My friends, this is a victory to savor. Let me just enjoy this cigar. *Ssssssssssssssssuck*

Thank you so much for listening to my advice and crossing over to vote for Hillary today. I can't wait to watch the libs tear themselves apart tomorrow. Hee hee hee.

I've got to say, I finally chose Obama over Clinton just a week or so ago, but I still don't really see that there's much of a difference between the two.

except that Hillary has the seniority and therefore, in the other Washington, more clout, and Obama's more personable and inspiring.

I especially can't believe that if one or the other was elected, that the loser's supporters would defect to the GOP. That just blows my mind!!

I'm the one who's gloating, Erica, because I know that in November you'll be voting for Obama -- and you'll like it.

Clinton's vaunted experience:
- Hairy armpit co-ed
- Goldwater Girl
- Bill Clinton's "wife"
- Wal-Mart Board
- White House travel office
- Republican senator
- screechy and bumptious campaign mismanager

a quarter of Hillary’s supporters would jump ship and support McCain in November

You mean all the Republicans who voted for Hillary in the primary tonight at the request of Rush Limbaugh aren't going to vote for her in the fall? They're going to vote for McCain? No fair!

ECB, since you brought up jumping ship, I am the 10% who will not vote for Clinton. I won't vote for McCain either. I predict a Democrat will take Washington in November, so my non-vote for president will not matter much. I will be voting for Gregoire.

@ 15 - agree with you. There are some 'youth voters' showing their immaturity.

ECB revels in what was predicted. also handily in texas? 4% is not handily.

Disenfranchised? Their votes counted, they just didn't win. It's called democracy.

And as for McCain -- that's weird. I thought you Obama fans loved him because he unites Democrats and Republicans. I'm not saying I think that stat is good news--I don't--but suddenly turning all "Republicans are evil" after welcoming Republican voters into the fold without asking WHY they support Obama is pretty weird.

The DNC's going to be so impressed with Clinton's whopping 12% margin in Ohio -- my God! what a blowout!! -- and handy 3-4% margin in the Texas primary (let's ignore that pesky caucus, which doesn't count anyway), that they'll railroad three-quarters of the remaining superdelegates into supporting Clinton, rig the remainder of the state primaries and caucuses, and squeak out a mathematically improbable victory for her this summer.

The buzz is in the air. Hill's a winner tonight. It's gonna happen. I can feel it.

WOW!!!!!!

She won 2 states where she was polling up by close to 20% in both a month and ended up with 12% and 4%.....YAYAYAYAYAY!!!!!

Moving the goal posts......Good Job!!!

According to Pew:

Obama leads McCain 50 to 43
Clinton leads McCain 50 to 45
Obama has 81 percent of Democratic support
Clinton has 89 percent of Democratic support
Obama leads McCain among Independents 49 to 43
McCain leads Obama among Independents 49 to 43

That 25 percent seems pretty insignificant to me. Obama wins Independents, Obama wins the election.

interesting game look at http://www.270towin.com/
click on states you get a pretend hrc v. bho electoral college result I think the outcome is HRC with 260 and BHO with only about 205. Regardless of actual specific nos. this shows she is winning the big states so if obama takes it he should put her on the ticket to try to win in november.

Definitely would be a great way to hold down that 25% fall off ECB mentions.
Reinforce the unity, nondivisive nature of Obama's movement, etc.

Oh, and: Obama beat Clinton among men. Clinton won among white men, true, but not by much--50 to 47 percent. So the "racist stupid white Texans" theory isn't borne out by the numbers. Who did vote by race? Black voters, who went overwhelmingly (83 percent) for Obama.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21226009

Bumpin' this up the Slog...

Math of the Moot Point:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/4/162042/3056/80/468751

obama got almost or more the same amount of votes in the big states as all republicans combined UnPC. those states arent in peril if obama is the Nom.

ECB, you might have a point if obama didnt lose only by 4% in the primary. get a grip , for once in your life.

Spin?

Obama won the Texas caucus and is holding Clinton to a draw in the largest state up for grabs tonite - a part Hispanic state ...

We don't need to spin.

We still have way more delegates.

In unPC's world, Clinton's victory in a PRIMARY in California shows that only she can win California for the Democrats in a GENERAL election.

The sky is green there, too.

ABC exit polls says "Latinos in Texas accounted for a record 30 percent of voters, up from 24 percent in 2004 -- second only this cycle to New Mexico, and matching California -- and they backed Clinton by 63-35 percent, crucial to her fortunes."

It would be great if Texas could actually be put in play in the general election.

unPC, I cannot believe you are STILL be retailing the absurdity that Obama could not win in November any of the states Clinton won, or vice versa. It's just plain dishonest of you to do so.

It's also inaccurate, since Obama is going to clean up on TX delegates over Clinton, therefore I think you should give that state to him, not her -- if you're going to play this vacuous game.

You have to forgive ECB for being a little hysterical and vaporish tonight, what with all those racist white men in Ohio voting with their vaginas.

It's a proud moment for feminism.

Feminism, and negative campaigning.

Which proves what, ECB; that Obama attracts uneducated chauvinist's who would vote for a Republican before they'd vote for a woman?

Footnote 2: According to a recent Pew poll, a quarter of Hillary’s supporters would jump ship and support McCain in November—compared to just ten percent of Obama’s.

That's because a quarter of her supporters are fucking racists, Erica.

I can't vote for Hillary in the general. It's not that I like Obama more, it's more that I'm tired of being belittled by the Clinton campaign and the mass of people around them.

I'm too male, too middle-middle class, too educated, too "not needing a president." And that's mostly coming from the guy who I VOTED FOR as president.

I'm tired of the insults. At least Obama and McCain aren't insulting me any chance they get.

Seriously, can we tone it down just a little bit? These are both amazing, history-making candidates with very little daylight between them on policy issues. Either one would advance the interests of the readers of this blog far more than John "100 more years in Iraq" McCain. Vote for and donate to the one you want, but don't forget who the real enemy is.

Erica- my main reasoning for not voting for Hilz is this: the legacy. First time voters this year, in their entire lives have known nothing but a Bush or a Clinton in office.

There is a reason we dont have a monarchy.

What do you say to that? I'm honestly curious and want to know the answer from a Hilary supporter.

We've come a long way, baby, where it's still more pc to be sexist and a woman basher than "racist", according to slogger's at least. I'll never be surprised that ECB and Hillary garner more vitriol than actual issues. Power of pussy! HAhahaha. The "fairer sex" is still, and always will be -- the male.

51% of 2/3 of a state—that'll really destroy Obama's delegate lead!

Or, you know, not.

Hurray! We still have a race. Pretty commical that some Obama supporters have been whining and carping that Hillary should "quit" the race.

Of course I've seen the math and heard all of the doomsday scenarios (thanks, Tim Russert). Maybe Obama will win in the end, but it's awesome that the race is this close for now.

I actually think it strengthens the Democratic party's position in November vs. McCain.

keshmeshi beat me to it, so pardon me for repeating...

"According to a recent Pew poll, a quarter of Hillary’s supporters would jump ship and support McCain in November—compared to just ten percent of Obama’s."

Great, according to the study, she'll get 8% percent more Democrats to vote for her and lose 8% percent between Republicans (3) and Independents (5). Which 8% would you rather have?

What about this bit in that same study?

"Obama has much greater personal appeal to independent voters than does either McCain or Clinton. Fully 63% of independents rate Obama favorably, nearly twice the percentage expressing an unfavorable view of him (32%)...The share of independents with an unfavorable view of Clinton is substantially higher (50%), while just 45% view her favorably."

You honestly think this couldn't make all the difference come November?

Well, hey, what better time to say it again: Fuck Texas. Fuck their big fucking mouths, their cowboy hats, their oil companies, the neverending array of fascist politicians they foist upon us. And fuck the fucking Dallas Cowboys.

Anyways, Hillary's still out in a couple weeks anyway.

Wow, ECB officially has cracked her nut. I have a spin for you - the net delegate gain tonight for HRC is bubkis. nada. Sorry. You are setting yourself up for so much steaming shit that is going to be flung your way when Hillary ineveitably concedes, or tears the party apart whichever comes first. And you'll deserve every smelly morsul of it. Your girl is going to lose. So choke on it.

calm down @33 and others.

Let me say it v-e-r-y slowly.
1. we want to win in November.
2. Obama is the likely nominee.
3. But,he has flaws and limitations like he l-o-s-i-n-g most of the really big states. No one has recently won the presidency without winning the Ohio primary. Eeveryone who voted for Clinton didn't vote for Obama. Hard to believe, but true. And more: there will be blood. I mean: there will be fall off.

Duh! Happens in every election.
We have a split party about half and half in delegates, in total votes, in playing electoral games (hey I said it was a pretend game!).
4. To minimize the fall off & get everyone excited and working together -- voters, endorsers, donors -- put Hillary on the ticket, too.

PS: When reasonable ideas like this are viewed as threatening heresy, which must be stamped out! immediately !! and attacked !!! um, something is wrong with the dominant orthodoxy.

dude, she won by 8% in ohio? WTF IS THAT WEAK ASS SHIT? 4% in the texas primary? these arent numbers that will mean anything in the delegate count. shes done, whether she will admit it, whether all of clinton's supporters will admit it or not.

gloating about these victories is sad because they werent enough.

Sorry. Hate to break it to you people but the people who are so chafed by Bush/Clinton for x years should be more chafed by:

Republican (white man, Reagan), Republican (white man, Reagan),Republican (white man, Bush I), Democrat (white Man, Clinton), Republican (white man, Bush II), Republican (white man, Bush II) and remember that both of the candidates are a historical scenario.

However, Hillary is more of a challenge to McCain because its unrealistic to think we can make that great of a leap in such a small amount of time. Status quo is not always a negative. It's just too much of a stretch and people need to get off the bandwagon and be realistic for now. Its a process.

Oh, one fantasy I have is the annual tour of the white house Christmas decorations done by the first lady - Michelle Obama. If Jackie O were a fly on that wall.

UnPc - HRC would have to concede to accept the Veep spot. And i am pretty sure after campaigning against Obama on behalf of McCain recently that bridge is pretty well burned.

1. would hillary take veep?
2. he got more votes in the big states than the leading republican for the most part and in some cases had more votes in the big states than all republicans combined.

I'm glad you're happy that your candidate won a narrow and meaningless victory by resorting to the lowest form of political shenanigans. It's great how easily Hillary supporters can overlook blatant racism and fearmongering. If the Obama campaign had been going around calling Hillary a bitch or a sissy girl, or running an ad that said, "It's three AM, the phone's
ringing in the White House, but the president doesn't answer because she has her period," you'd be (rightfully) going apeshit. But when the Clinton campaign resorts to race-baiting and Muslim insinuations, all the so-called progressive feminists somehow leave their outrage at home. By gloating, you're giving not-so-tacit approval to the exact kind of campaigning you claim to hate. Is it okay because she's a woman? I don't get it.

And by the way, Hillary can't (legitimately) win anyways, unless the superdelegates overrule the people, in which case she'd be toast in November.

So gloat away. You're gloating about racism, slash-and-burn politics and a Republican victory in September. Hooray!

Read the damn link.

All the democratic defectors are exactly compensated by Obama's greater appeal to independents (Independents prefer Obama over McCain 49-43; they prefer McCain over Clinton 50-44)

@12 - if 25 percent of those who voted Clinton tonite in Ohio would vote for McCain instead of Obama, while only 10 percent of those who voted Obama would vote for McCain instead of Clinton, I think we've identified who Rush Limbaugh got extra votes for tonite.

Won't matter, Obama's still way ahead on delegates.

To Mike in PS- The vitriol between the campaigns right now is trashing Dem odds in the general election. I used to predict Hill would get the nom, lose the general election or win and get assassinated. For a while I dared to hope Obama would get the nom, but the number of people voting with vaginas outnumbers the people voting with melanin, so I guess my original prediction still holds. Only a qualifier: I'm more certain than ever, as the campaign drags, that McCain will smoke Hill like a fucking cigarette in the general election. 100 more years in Iraq! Awesome! It's not like I'm of draft age anymore. Fuck it.
-

Ugh. Now we get to hear the Clinton types complain about caucuses again, and perhaps even play the role of Bush II by using the courts to try to overturn caucus results and possibly to get Florida and Michigan counted.

I think she'll pull it off, just like Bush II did, but wow will that be a hollow victory.

Lordy, you're as dislikable as she is.

Will someone please slam Carrie Ann @ 48 for her lapse in logic? If all else fails please consult John's post @ 9.

According to the numbers over at the Seattle Times. Obama could still catch up because something like 250k votes from the county cleveland is in still have to be counted.

Update:

Clinton's margin of victory down to 3% in Texas primary (95% reporting) and down to 8% in Ohio (92% reporting). Meanwhile, she's losing the Texas caucuses by 10% (34% reporting). Texas will likely be an even delegate split. The (real) press will catch up with this reality eventually.

ECB -

How much of Clinton's vote in Texas was from Limbaugh fans?

@46 - When was the last time the Ohio primary was seriously contested?

c'mon ECB, you really think Hillary won "handily in the Texas primary"?

Handily means "in an easy manner" and that's not what happened in TX. Be fair here.

It's just sad that the Democrats are going to find a way to lose the election in a year when the economy and the war should make their candidate a shoo-in. The divisive primary season to come is going to really hurt whichever candidate emerges the winner.

Hillary's strategy against Obama is very shortsighted, too, and will leave her very vulnerable in the general election. If she is able to convince voters that experience is what matters most when she is running against Obama, how is she going to turn around and tell them that experience suddenly doesn't matter now that she's running against the infinitely more experienced McCain?

@48 "its unrealistic to think we can make that great of a leap in such a small amount of time." ???? America is over 200 years old- plenty of time to make a change. Speaking of "realistic".

Sorry but your racist logic is not ligit.

And, by the way, it's MY prerogative.

So over you young peeps and your "Wah, we've had a Bush or Clinton in the White House our whole lives, it's gotta be somebody else" garbage. Know what? We've had a MAN in the White House MY entire (longer-so-far) life ... not to mention the 181 years BEFORE that. (Yes, I know, you can make the Obama argument the same way by saying "we've had a white in the White House that whole time." Sorry, I get the point for using it with gender first!)

See, now that we've hired Tina Fey to work for Hils campaign we're cleaning house and taking names!

@64 That is very much the problem. Clinton clearly doesn't care much about anything but getting and keeping power. When the crunch comes, she does just what Bill did - sacrifice the rest of the movement to stay in power.

Obama may not be perfect, but as anti-corruption campaigner Larry Lessig reminds us (at length :-) :

http://www.lessig.org/blog/2008/02/20_minutes_or_so_on_why_i_am_4.html

he's different enough that it matters.

And you're still wrong about front brakes on bikes, Barnett - so neener neener :-)

66: it's about blood not gender or race/gender you dick. also, you're not the first one to make it about gender- grow up.

ECB's sense of objectivity went out weeks ago. shame really.

@46

"No one has recently won the presidency without winning the Ohio primary."

Well... Nobody's won the presidency who's black either... in fact nobody who's female... I guess stupid little historical stats don't count for shit this time around.

Anyways let's try these new Hillary campaign slogans on for size...
"Anti- Union, former Wal-Mart Board of Director for President"
"Monica Lewinsky's X-boyfriend's wife for president"
"Another person with $10-50 Million net-worth for President"
"Chairperson of the failed 1993 Healthcare reform for President"

I heart andy @71.

Obama is going to put the spotlight back on himself tomorrow or soon after when he announces he has a big chunk of superdelegates in his corner, revealing them as a block. He'll point to his delegate lead, the mathematical facts, and, again, all these new superdelegates. He is the victor, there is no way Clinton can exceed his delegate count, and were the superdelegates to choose her, they would be giving the candidacy to a person who had lost. It's just not possible. How do you explain to a nation of voters that they should support the candidate who won that candidacy on a technicality?

As I sit here, I just watched Jackie Mason on the Jimmy Kimmel show make a clear, rationed explanation for why it is mathematically impossible for Cliton to win, her candidacy and victories tonight are moot, and I have officially turned into an old man.

Meanwhile, Obama is going to change the narrative shortly.

Guess it's time for Richardson to pull out the big gun.

Oh.

Yeah.

You forgot about that, didn't you Sen Clinton ...

"Spin THAT."

If I must...

"It’s gratifying to see Hils whallop Obama in Ohio and win handily in the Texas primary"

First of all, she didn't exactly "win handily" in Texas, and secondly, you and the rest of the mainstream media need to stop pushing a "win/lose" mentality. The fact that major news organizations are "calling" states for either candidate is downright absurd. These are not winner-take-all contests. Hillary's close victory in Texas is not going to net her that many delegates.

"just days after gloating Obama fans were saying she should just drop quietly out of the race"

Do you not see the irony in your earlier post, questioning CNN's not calling Ohio for Clinton with 37% reporting? (again demonstrating your disconcerting obsession with who "wins" a state, but more to the point, demonstrating your unfamiliarity with statistics or at least lack of an ability to apply them consistently)

"a quarter of Hillary’s supporters would jump ship and support McCain in November—compared to just ten percent of Obama’s"

You seem to think this reflects poorly on Obama's chances in the general--this is a primary after all--but you don't elaborate on your interpretation. I can't imagine a framing where this says anything but "A quarter of Clinton supporters are giant idiotic douchebags, while only 10 percent of Obama supporters are giant idiotic douchebags". Seriously, what is your argument? Some kind of blackmail? "Nominate Hillary, or her politically inept supporters will vote McCain!" WTF?

This seems a bit more relevant: "But in an Obama-McCain matchup, 14% of Democratic voters say they would support McCain, compared with 8% who would do so if Clinton is the nominee".

You ignore a number of other important factors (aside from polling this early being purely masturbatory), some of which are in this poll, like, say, THE FIRST RESULT which is "Obama and Clinton both lead McCain". If you are baffled by how Obama could be winning, what with all those Clinton supporters jumping ship, it's because of independents cumming in their mouths a little bit.

My favorite part of the poll had to be "Independent Voters Like Obama" section, where we learn that 50 percent of independents already have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Do you think she's going to win any of those people over? It will be difficult for her to do more than break even on independents. If it weren't for the Blue Wave(tm) about to descend, she would have practically lost the general *already* with those dismal numbers. Do you notice that in the McCain-Clinton matchup, 91% of Rs vote for McCain, only 87% of Ds vote for Clinton, she loses independents, yet she still wins 50-45? It seems if this were any other year Hillary would get absolutely hosed by independents.

Obama, meanwhile, already has over 60% favorable opinion among independents and McCain is 50% favorable with about 10% undecided vs. Clinton and Obama's 5%.

"Obama beat Clinton among men. Clinton won among white men, true, but not by much--50 to 47 percent. So the "racist stupid white Texans" theory isn't borne out by the numbers.

ECB, what, exactly, the fuck are you talking about? Your logic is what...that Men voted for Obama, so therefore, it means that racist, stupid people didn't vote for Billary?

Unless you're assuming that all the racist, stupid people in Texas are men, the stated fact doesn't do a damn thing to support your conclusion.

@25,

Er, I mean McCain leads Clinton in delegates. It's late, I go to sleep.

But before I do that, I would be very interested as to how many Clinton ship jumpers are still going by name recognition at this point. Once upon a time, I would've scoffed at the idea that 25 percent of Clinton supporters still don't know who the fuck Obama is, but then I've witnessed the 2000 and 2004 elections, so, you never know.

I'm just wondering if extra time in the national spotlight for Obama would win over some or most of those voters, especially once they see him matched up against the undead McCain.

With currently reported results, the delegate spreads are as follows:

Vermont: +3 Obama
Rhode Island: +4 Clinton
Texas primary: +2 Clinton
Texas caucus (34% reporting): +7 Obama
Ohio: +5 Clinton

Overall: +1 Clinton

In other words, instead of being 159 delegates behind Obama, Clinton's now 158 delegates behind.

Not only that, tonight's voting represented 38% of the remaining primary/caucus delegates. That she failed to change the delegate spread means the odds of her winning the nomination just fell precipitously.

Big night! Spin THAT.

You chastise us for gloating
And then go and do the same.
It seems we should do
Not what you do
But only what you say.

Really, Erica? This isn't winner takes all. As others have said, she's going to be lucky to close the gap by 1 or so delegates. That's not a win. It's like Evita's Rainbow Tour--pretty and fancy but in the end not terribly useful except as a vanity exercise.

Face it. She should gracefully bow out now while she's still got some respect. For me, the Clintons are ruined. She's got a lot of work to do to regain the respect of a lot of voters.

Uh, Erica spin this: Hillary gets her ASS kicked by McCain in the General Election. Erica, come on, spin that little reality you have never once addressed.

Daily Kos can do the math!

@81 did you really just use an evita reference?

Hillary is amazing. There are a lot of us rejoicing today that the smartest and toughest candidate won last night. The cry baby sexist piglets on the SLOG should go back to their porn and let the women take care of the White House.

everyone using this "going against the will of the people" schtick sound like all of the crazy folks who were trying to ban the gays from getting married in Mass. this thing is about party nominations, not appealing to the masses. that's why in lots of states folks can't vote for nominees in the party they aren't registered in, and independents can't vote at all. there are a lot of things we should maybe change about this system, but that's how it is for right now. i'd be ashamed of any superdelegate that voted against their own personal choice to appease the fucktards on slog.

1) It's the delegates stupid.
2) Nice to know a huge chunk of her followers agree with her scorched earth policy. What assholes. If you're posting that as an argument *for* her then you are a bigger idiot than your previous columns would imply.
3) I'm glad to know my vote in NC *will* count this year. This is Obama country. So... where are the rest of her delegates coming from? Geraldine going to beat up on some suoers for her? Waaaa Waaaaa.

I'll see your Evita reference, and raise you!

The gods may throw a dice
Their minds as cold as ice
And someone way down here
Loses someone dear
The winner takes it all
The loser has to fall
Its simple and its plain
Why should I complain.

Clinton/Obama 2008.

Good morning!

1. MSNBC Chuck Todd now agreeing "The ticket will be Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama" and saying why it makes sense and is inevitable at this point (she's too strong not to be offered VP.)

Perhaps he's been reading Slog!

2. It's factual to note that "Many Clinton supporters won't vote for Obama" (And: vice versa!)

3. Strategic comment: we should maximize every vote, every donation dollar and every volunteer hour that can come from the Clinton supporters, to win the fall general election.

4. How to do this and avoid bitter division: Hillary for VP.

5. Shows real devotion to unity as opp. to fake, "political doublespeak" devotion to unity by talking up unity for months then failing to unify your own party.

Btw, anyone know what Obama achieved as an organizer or a lawyer? Apart from finding himself, as he wrote in his book. The "I learned how to inspire people but didn't actually cause change as an organizer or win any cases as a lawyer" approach will not stand up well to "As a young man I graduated from Annapolis, led a fighter group in combat, got shot down and taken prisoner, then I stayed loyal to the other POWS I was the commander of and refused to sell them out by getting my individual ticket to freedom, even though I was so badly hurt I needed a doctor."

So if Obama did get back any jobs, or start a nonprofit or a grass roots movement that achieved something, if he even won some kind of class action discrimination suit helping 4000 women or minorities or something, o rput some kind of Chicago corrupt political fixer in jail, anything he actually achieved -- it sure as hell would be nice to know.

@84. Yes. Yes I did.

@88.

Why did I do it?
What did it get me?
Scrapbooks full of me in the background.
Give 'em love and what does it get ya?
What does it get ya?
One quick look as each of 'em leaves you.
All your life and what does it get ya?
Thanks a lot and out with the garbage,
They take bows and you're battin' zero.

Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that the Obama supporters were pushing him because he would bring out young voters, independents and Republicans that HRC wouldn't so he should get the nomination. That was OK. Now voters for HRC in a bigger percentage than O say they won't vote for Obama but that's not OK?

Great site!

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What everyone else has already said: do the math.

It's great to see the Hils supporters championing her sinking to identity politics to stir up racist sentiment. Hils is disgusting.

Everyone should watch the Lessig video posted above.

http://www.lessig.org/blog/2008/02/20_minutes_or_so_on_why_i_am_4.html

the math says "brokered convention". The will of the people is not a winner take all because one candidate has more delegates or votes than the other. They have to hit 2025, one way or another. Without reaching the specified count, there is no winner. This is the system. If you don't like it, work to change it but the claim that the will of the people is being ignored is not born out by the facts. A simple majority of voters is not how elections are decided. When you participate in the system you are de facto accepting the rules.
That being said they should rerun the florida and michigan primaries.

So she won small victories in states she was up by 20 points in a month a go, still trails in delegates, and would pretty much have to win every single remaining delegate to win the nomination.

Things are looking up for her all right!

ECB @27: "Clinton won among white men, true, but not by much--50 to 47 percent."

Wait, 3 percent is "not by much"? I thought it was "handily"...

RichardZ, former NC resident. Glad to know the Tar Heel state will be going O's way!

ECB, I think the 10% figure is extremely low. The African American and youth will feel disenfranchised, and not vote for her. Don't get me wrong, she will win 90% of the black vote. However, a lot of blacks will simply sit at home. I will be one of the blacks who vote for McCain. And, of course, I'm voting for Gregoire.

Rather than predicting a torn up convention and assuming that dischord is inevitable let's finish this race, then figure out how we can be adults at the convention where we have a historic opportunity to choose from two exceptional candidates, pick the best ticket for our party and win the general.

I am not abandoning my candidate before the end of the race. I knew she could win last night and she did. She can win the nomination, and I want her to fight for it. People have danced on her grave more time than I can count, and it's time to plan for the long road.

Just for the record, Erica Barnett's blend of smarmy indignation and self-satisfaction is demonstrative of exactly what turns me and basically everyone I know off of Clinton. It radiates from her supporters and from the candidate herself. I live in Colorado, a red state that wants to go blue, and there is basically no chance of that happening with Clinton as the nominee.

Emma, stop drinking the Kool-Aid. McCain is going to win in Nov! Now, repeat after me: Pre-si-dent McCain!

hils....

all you dumbasses just made me vote for nader.

There was something in the air last night
The stars were bright, Obama
They were shining there for you and me
For liberty, Obama!
Though I never thought that we could lose
There’s no regret
If I had to do the same again
I would, my friend, Obama....

Its so obvious why men vote for Obama over Hillary: They're terrifyingly threatened by women. Duh, you can see it in the lowbrow comments here and the personal attack double standard. Oh, and you can see it in their pathetic porn/role play fantasy world that permeates our society. That's the only reason we may have a black prez. And because we're all nervous that we'll look racist if we don't. Hyper PC-ism in action yet again. And the more repressed they are (a la Limbaugh) the more mean they get.

so 25% of hillary supporters would support mccain instead of obama if obama wins the nomination--& only 10% of obama supporters would do likewise. are you stating this as some sort of point that hillary should get the nomination--b/c she has a better chance of winning than obama? if so, then this is just plain stupid.

what you are really saying hy quoting this poll is that hillary supporters are a bigger bunch of crybabies than obama supporters. that they would rather lose the general election to a republican than have obama win. ("if you don't play the way i want to play, then i'm gonna take my ball & go home!")

this poll isn't as interesting as it could/should be--b/c it's talking re: people who already strongly support clinton. there are plenty of undecideds out there--people who haven't yet participated in caucuses or primaries. THESE are the people who matter in the general election.

@102 Heartily agree. I especially loved @85's comment about "sexist little piglets" and "going back to porn," and letting a WOMAN run the White House. Cause obviously a WOMAN would get things done, whereas a BLACK MAN would just eat fried chicken all day. Wow. Just... wow.

And if anyone is curious, I am a woman and an independent-leaning-conservative, and I strongly support Obama. But I'll be damned if I vote Clinton. I am living proof that Clinton will lose the general election after the disgusting way she has flung mud, after her fear ads, after her "vote for me or else you're not an enlightened modern woman!" No thanks, no thanks, no thanks.

My prediction for 2009: Just as the "liberal" President Clinton snuffed out the New Deal where Reagan and Poppa Bush could not (in 1996), the "woman" President Clinton will snuff out Roe V. Wade where Shrub could not. Erica, with all due respect, please stop deceiving yourself. President Hillary will totally fuck over the women's movement, just as Senator Hillary has already fucked over the antiwar movement. Defect, Erica, defect!

God, "feminists" are naive. They'll take a corporate sell out like Clinton, and elevate her to the level of a "serious politician" based solely on her lack of a penis, and her experience as a social hostess for eight years. What a bunch of damaged idiots.

Hey Ladies, good news! When Hils goes down (as she will. Even if there were enough people that liked her, they still control the voting machines) you can all look forward to all the silly demonstrations you will throw when we get that all male Supreme Court.

And we can tune out your screechy voices screaming about "your right to choose" being taken away because YOU are the ones who worked to take it away.

Dana, your post is hugely insulting! It's Clinton supporters like you who have turned me against her. Yes, I support Obama, as do many of my male (and female) friends. However, we've also voted for Gov. Christine Gregoire, Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell, as well as others.

the dichotomy of non support for hillary making you a sexist neanderthal is a pretty sad example of what feminists can achieve politically.

Clinton got lucky in several districts, just barely meeting thresholds to gain an additional delegate. The vote totals will likely change enough to surrender some of those delegates back to Obama (especially in the Texas caucuses). But for now, the current results, before the Texas caucuses are fully tallied, are Clinton 191, Obama 178 -- a better showing than last night's single delegate lead.

So the stark reality remains -- even in this best-case scenario, Clinton only chipped Obama's pledged delegate lead from 159 to 148. Yet last night offered more than 1/3rd of remaining delegates, 370. Only about 560 remain in the contest.

If Obama can show he's not collapsing under the weight of Clinton's assault, there will be no reason for the super delegates to overturn the will of the voters (in both pledged delegates and the popular vote).

Game over Billary.

(you're not the Emma from Moe's are you, @101?)

When all is said and done, Obama will have more delegates from Texas (1st) and Vermont (3rd) than Clinton gets from Ohio (2nd) and Rhode Island (4th).

That's math.

interesting editing/revising Erica...

I remember last night seeing a series of statements added, then lined through and revised to add some extra gloat to the numbers being 1% better for HRC than you originally thought. Now they are completely gone?

Wow, I am glad Clinton deigns to allow Obama on her ticket as VP.

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/980546.html

Let the coronation begin!

@ 107, your world must be a world of hurt. Sorry you think that all men are sexist.