2008 A New Democratic Coalition, and a New Generation
posted by on February 29 at 11:35 AM
This article in The National Journal is well worth a read. It looks at the demographics of this year’s surging Democratic turnout and finds the makings of a new Democratic strategy, a new Democratic generation, and a new Democratic governing majority:
From New Hampshire to California, and from Arizona to Wisconsin, exit polls from this year’s contests show the Democratic coalition evolving in clear and consistent ways since the 2004 primaries that nominated John Kerry. The party is growing younger, more affluent, more liberal, and more heavily tilted toward women, Latinos, and African-Americans…The implications for the general election could be significant. If Democrats can maintain the allegiance of the constituencies now pouring into their primaries — especially young people — they could seize an edge in November’s election, and potentially well beyond. “These are long-term opportunities that could change a generation of leadership in the country and give the Democrats a huge leg up on obtaining or achieving elective office,” says Matthew Dowd, the chief strategist for President Bush’s 2004 election campaign and now a consultant for ABC News. “But it all depends on how they conduct themselves.”
The most dramatic change has been in Democratic voting by young people, something that Dowd, in a the article, says could hurt Republicans well beyond this election.
In 2000, under-30 voters split about evenly between Bush and Gore, according to exit polls. In 2004, they preferred Kerry over Bush by 54 percent to 45 percent. In the 2006 House elections, they backed Democrats by 60 percent to 38 percent. In a race between Obama, 46, and McCain, 71, even many Republicans wouldn’t be surprised to see that wide a gap among the young.“If you look at Ronald Reagan and how he performed among youth, he created a generation of Republicans that was able to sustain itself,” Dowd says. “Well, what Bush has done in his presidency is almost the opposite: He has won elections and lost a generation. Now this generation is emerging, and if Democrats end up winning this election, and then govern in a way that gives people a sense that it is a new politics, they will have a generation. It will be the reverse of Reagan.”
It's that last unhighlighted section in your block quote that is the key: Democrats must not only get elected, but they also MUST enact policies in line with the socio-economic-political beliefs of their supporters.
If they end up "playing safe" (ala Dems in the WA Legislature - who arguably have a somewhat more tenuous hold on Olympia at the moment), or otherwise trade-off electibility over policy-making, they're simply inviting a reactionary pendulum-swing back toward the GOP.
The article matches what I'm seeing.
The only real problem is that the old guard, who are mostly Clinton supporters, hold the elected district (LD), county and state positions - and as a group they (I guess I should say we, even if I am Obama) are much older than the new PCO-based younger groups that Obama is feeding into the Dems.
Should be some turf battles over who gets elected at the next reorganization meetings - and the old guard has been having problems adapting to the focus on real issues that the younger groups that Obama has brought out have.
(personally, I like the change)
I've long thought generation was the elephant in the room during heated Clinton/Obama supporter debates: not race or gender.
Try not to get carried away with the generational issue. I am old enough to remember talk of the "woodstock nation"
and how they alone would change everything. There are a lot of other factors.
I pledge to myself and the Deomocratic Party a new deal for the American people.
I am baaack! And I came in the form of a black man from Chicago!
Typical youth-cult narcissistic crap. I'll believe it when these newbies are here a year from now doing the scut work of party-building.
We get a few with staying power every election. This one will be no different.
As for Will's comment that the "old guard" who hold the elected positions in the party are mostly Clinton supporters, that is bullshit, and Will knows it perfectly well.
This generational bullshit didn't stop much of this state's Democratic leadership from endorsing Howard Dean in 2004. The Obama/Clinton propostion in state and local party leadership today roughly reflects the 2-1 Obama margin among caucus voters.
tsk, Ivan, I saw into their hearts, and have talked with them - and it's true.
"alllll we are sayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyiiiiing/is Giiive hiiim a chaaaaaaance"
@6-
So this scutwork, does it involve going
uphill both ways through 6 feet of snow like you used to have to back in the day?
@9:
If you mean talking to your neighbors about politics and mobilizing them to action, and getting out the vote and lobbying in Olympia, yeah. That's the same. Interested?
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