2008 Your Iowa Predictions?
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Originally posted on Dec. 30
Local politico Sandeep Kaushik is ready to throw down a prediction for the Iowa caucusesówith one big caveat:
Only a fool would try to predict the outcome of the Iowa caucuses. It's a suckers bet.
Having said that, Kaushik offers a prediction, and even a point-spread. He says:
Edwards wins Iowa cleanly:
His bet on the Republican side?
On the R side, I say Romney by five over Huckabee, who barely beats out a surging McCain (who becomes a major story line heading into NH). Thompson finishes fourth:
Paul and Giuliani split the rest.
What say you, Slog readers? Put your own predictions and point-spreads in the comments. Or, if you consider yourself a notable local politico, send me an email with your predicted results and if I agree that your prediction is worth posting I'll put it in the body of this post, just like I did with Sandeep's.
UPDATE: Jenny Durkan, chair of the Edwards campaign in Washington State, writes in with her prediction:
I predict Eli buys.
And former local politico Grant Cogswell offers this:
I don't know if I qualify, maybe as an ex-politico, but far be it from me to make an ass of myself in public: I'm not going to get scientific with the numbers, but I think it will be Clinton over Obama by a nose with Edwards coming in third, and Huckabee.
(Don't have a prediction yet? Don't worry, there are still
four three days before the caucuses, which is plenty of time to make bold declarations that will get you laughed at, or praised as a genius, on Jan. 4. I'll be letting this post ride the Slog every day through the Iowa caucuses, so start thinkingóor, if you're done thinking, get in here and take a public risk. In the world of political punditry, it's never too early to be wrong!)