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Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Still Fantasizing About Moving to Canada?

Posted by on January 18 at 12:19 PM

Well, forget it.

Thanks to the corruption scandals that the ruling Liberal Party has presided over, Canada’s Conservative Party is about to win an election—not on the strength of its platform, which most Canadians loathe. The Conservative Party and its leader, Stephen Harper, are opposed to Kyoto, pro-Iraq war, and are talking about repealing gay marriage and drug reform. But because they’re not the Liberals, folks are gonna vote for `em.

Harper is against gay marriage and the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouses gases, and he once referred to Canada as a “northern European welfare state.” He also said he would reassess Canada’s decision to opt out of the U.S. ballistic missile program.

Martin has warned that Harper also would scrap abortion rights.

But Harper has largely kept his ultraconservative views to himself, and his handlers have successfully portrayed him as a moderate who will work for the middle class.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because that was the load of shit that George W. Bush fed American voters—I’m a moderate! A reformer with results! A uniter not a divider!

One bright spot: Canada has a parliamentary system, and a government that rapidly loses support can be forced to face the voters sooner rather than later. A Canadian Prime Minister with approval ratings anything like George W. Bush’s—40% and below in most polls—would be out of office pretty quickly. Paul Martin, the current Liberal Prime Minister, won an election in June 2004. But in November 2005, the ruling party lost a “no confidence” vote and an election was called. Hopefully that will act as some restraint on Harper.


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If the Conservatives win a majority of seats, which is possible, according to some polls, then they won't face the voters for four or five years, unless a number of Conservative members defect over time to the Opposition. The Liberals held a minority of seats in the most recent parliament.

Well, the Conservatives are currently polling at 42 percent, with 24 percent backing the Libs and 17 percent backing the New Democratic Party. If that holds, the Conservatives will have to cut a deal with the New Dems or the Libs to form a government—they won't have an outright majority, God willing.

Keep in mind that even if Harper wins with majority of seats, the senate it will mostly liberals. So he must be careful about what he will do because even if the house of common (which would be mainly conservative) pass a law, the senate could refuse to approve it.

The liberals as been there for 12 years, we have to let them go. I'm not a conservative, but I'm fed up with the liberals... and I don't want a minority gouvernement.

Dan, those poll results could translate into a majority of seats for the Conservatives. It's the number of seats that count. It only takes a plurality of votes to win a seat.

...but think how much fun the protest demonstrations will be. I'm still opting for emigration, Dan, because if Harper does decide and is able to do the fascist tango (which seems unlikely given his opposition), that dance will be very temporary. On the other hand, we face another 30 years here in the States of having a rather tight-assed Supreme Court with the conservative Kennedy replacing O'Connor as the swing vote (yesterday's Oregon decision not withstading).

You're absolutely right about the Harper/Bush re-packaging. Harper is from the old Reform Party (a way right party born in very conservative Alberta)which combined with Joe Clark's and Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservative Party after that party lost all but a few seats in Parliament, found itself dead in the water, and couldn't regain its once-upon-a-time general popularity. The PC had a national legitimacy that the Reform Party didn't enjoy. Atlantic Canada and eastern Canada saw the Reform Party as a bunch of crackpots. The PCs were - as conservatives go - a fairly liberal bunch of folk in comparison. The Reform Party advocated cutting taxes, doing away with social programs, and privatizing health care. Hmmm, Dan, that sounds vaguely familiar.

The Alito confirmation is going to put an end - for a good, long while - to any hopes of civil equality for the GLBT community. We;re screwed.

The voters of Canada are facing an election on the 23rd of the type we've had to face here in the States recently - and election where one holds his or her nose and votes. But I have faith in the Canadian people and I'm still hitting the road.

Dan, the Liberals won a majority of seats in 2000 with only approximately 40% of the popular vote.

Anyway, Harper wants to put in process that would allow prosecution of minister for the imputability. Right now, with the corruption scandal, a minister can say that he doesn't remember and nothing can be done against him... Which make their job pretty useless IMHO.

Anyway, I'll give Harper 4 years just to kick some liberals butts. And we'll see afterward.

The Canadian Senate is unelected and appointed. Serious defiance of the House of Commons, the popular will, if you will, would cause a constitutional crisis.

It will be fun to watch. Sad, I'm thinking, but fun.

Tune in to CBUT on January 23, 2005. Surf the websites.

Smart-Ass is a Dumb-Ass. The election will be held on Monday, January 23, 2006. Imagine making the year mistake this late in the month of January.

Thanks Smart-Ass for correcting the bone-headed statements on (appointed) Senate and how little it takes to elect a majority government under a parlimentary system. I almost had to reach into the computer screen and strangle someone.

Even if Harper gets in, his platform gets nowhere with a mandate based on "anyone but a Liberal". Besides, his days were just as numbered as Martin's were going into the election and he's got no bench strength, none of the old-guard Tories in cabinet - how well's is that going to work? I give it a month and a half tops before some bozo MP from the Okanagan or Drumheller sticks his foot in his mouth and calls for the "deportation of 'New Canadians' back to India or Somalia, or where ever it is that they come from."

Sucks Dan, but no one's going to turn back the clock on gay marriage, etc. These are all backed up in the Canadian Charter of Rights and the Supreme Court - go figure.

I'm still packing my bags. My husband & I are 50, and I don't think the US health care system can possibly improve enough in 15 years for us to risk getting old here, nor do I think the Canadians can possibly fuck theirs up to a USan extent in that time.

The Senate stopping Commons legislation has happened before. Take a look at Mulroney and the idiotic abortion bill that the Senate killed.

Harper can't touch gay marriage. He can screw the economy and the tax structure, he can wreck the child-care plan, he can even pass out American-style handouts to the rich, like his proposed "child-care" plan is ($1200 to rich people. $338, after taxes, to poor people.)
He can't touch civil rights, and he *can* touch health care, but if he doesn't, the CPC will be completely gone in the next election. Guaranteed.

Er, "does". If he "does" touch health care in one of the bad ways, they're gone.

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