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Tuesday, November 4, 2008


posted by on November 4 at 16:40 PM

This is an early-poll-closing state that the Stranger Election Control Board suggests you keep a very close eye on. If Obama wins IndianaŚwell, that’s generally thought to be the landslide scenario.

Indiana was the place where Obama had all that trouble with “working class whites” during the primary with Hillary Clinton. He couldn’t quite beat her there because of that. So, the thinking goes, if Obama has improved his standing enough among that demographic to take Indiana, then he’s also going to easily take Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and a number of other places that are, relatively speaking, much easier going for him.

With that in mind, while we wait for the call on Indiana, some early parsing of county-by-county results from Nate Silver:

Just looking at some of the places where we have results in so far. Obama is substantially outperforming Kerry — which is what he needs to do to win the state, of course, but the differences are pretty substantial.

Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%

DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%

Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%

Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%

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Seattleite living in Indiana here. This is very exciting - and I switched my registration to IN just for this. One thing to note: the very pro-Obama northern counties polls just closed (at 7), so the results you are seeing are from the rural redneck areas right now, where the polls closed at 6.

Posted by Blue in Indiana | November 4, 2008 4:46 PM

Kerry? Wait, what year is it? What's going on?

Posted by Bonnie | November 4, 2008 4:47 PM

Note also that turnout isn't much higher in those counties than it was in '04...if there's a spike in turnout, we aren't seeing it in red counties yet.

Posted by Seth | November 4, 2008 4:53 PM
4 has a prettier map to look at and is up-to-date as well.

i'm going to king cobra to watch the show - have fun

Posted by bobcat | November 4, 2008 4:59 PM

I made you this:

Real screen cap, and my WTF moment for the day, hopefully.

Posted by Kat | November 4, 2008 5:01 PM

There's hope. I think the results will be determined by how Marion, Tippecanoe, and Lake counties vote. These are the bigger counties in Indiana and they tend to go democratic.

-from a former Indiana resident

Posted by iansf | November 4, 2008 6:20 PM

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