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Thursday, October 2, 2008

The Saddest Party

posted by on October 2 at 9:34 AM

More good news to fuel DP gloom:

A second poll shows McCain slipping in Georgia.

For the second time in two days, a statewide poll shows Republican John McCain slipping in Georgia as a result of the nation’s fiscal crisis.

This time, the survey comes from a partnership of WSB-TV and InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position. To be precise, the poll puts McCain at 50 percent and Democrat Barack Obama at 44 percent. Margin of error is plus-or-minus 4 percent.

Two percent prefer “other” candidates — not good news for Bob Barr, the Libertarian. And 4 percent are undecided.

On Tuesday, a SurveyUSA poll backed by two TV stations, WXIA in Atlanta and WMAZ in Macon, showed a similar drop in McCain’s fortunes, with the Republican at 52 percent and Obama at 44 percent. Margin of error was plus-or-minus 3.8 percent.

InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position had McCain up by 18 points three weeks ago. SurveyUSA had the Republican up by 16 points two weeks ago.

In a hardcore Republican state like Georgia, a McCain recovery is well within the reach of possibility, even probable — despite the first signs of an Obama surge here. But if he’s falling this far, this fast in Georgia, then McCain has other, larger worries elsewhere in the country.

Obama has become competitive in Georgia? No, that’s still not enough to make Dems happy.

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Something that Charles and I agree on. What is the world coming to?

Posted by Bellevue Ave | October 2, 2008 9:42 AM

since the electoral college is winner-take-all in each state, 'competitive' doesn't matter for shit.

i'll be ecstatic if obama takes the lead in Missouri & Indiana. that's realistic - he's only 1-2% down in those states.

but being happy because Georgia might get under 5% is, much like the state itself, retarded.

Posted by max solomon | October 2, 2008 9:50 AM

HOT DAMN. This has made my morning. Y'all just don't even know. If counties besides Fulton and DeKalb go for Obama (the only two in Georgia to go to Kerry in 2004), it's going to be a beautiful day.

Posted by Sweeney Agonistes | October 2, 2008 9:56 AM

@2 - Stereotypes are fun. I love it when idiots lump 9.3 million people into one big group.

Anyway, I've definitely been hearing more "maybe Obama's not so bad" lately (even if one of my McCain-loving neighbors insinuated that I was going to hell for voting for a baby-killer).

And the best part is that early voting has been going on for the past week or so. Turnout has been steady, a lot of it minorities and young people. If pissed off people are voting NOW, that's a very, very good thing.

Posted by Georgia Guy | October 2, 2008 9:57 AM

Lets win and then be happy. Seriously, we have imploded late like 88.

Posted by StrangerDanger | October 2, 2008 9:57 AM

We're Democrats. Worrying is what we do. From November 4, 2008 to November of 2016, we'll worry that Obama will be assassinated (God forbid, bli ayin ha-ra, insert superstitious utterance here), and then we'll fret about the next Dem nominee.

Worrying is what makes us better at governing. We think about what can go wrong, so even if we were to control all levers of government for 500 years, at the end of that time, we'd be going, "What if the GOP picks a candidate that really appeals to the colonies on Mars?"

Posted by Gitai | October 2, 2008 10:10 AM

Gitai, worrying doesn't get you to the place where you can govern.

Posted by Bellevue Ave | October 2, 2008 10:41 AM

Recent polls have Obama within the margin of error in Texas and Mississippi, as well.

This is good news not because Obama could win, but because it's indicative that McCain's problems are nationwide. If a Republican presidential candidate is struggling for a 10 point lead in heavily red states the first week of October, that's a very positive sign for Democratic victories in battlefield states.

Posted by michael strangeways | October 2, 2008 10:44 AM

Bellvue, neither does glee

Posted by boyd main | October 2, 2008 10:44 AM

Speaking of polls, 538 has another takedown of RCP. Heh.

Posted by Mike in Renton | October 2, 2008 10:57 AM

Georgia Slog readers represent!

On a general scale, it's really Atlanta Versus Everybody Else. I think we could get Gwinnett County close this time, and maybe Cobb County too. I'd call Fulton and DeKalb safe-for-Obama counties, and nearly every other county a safe-for-McCain county.

Posted by Christin | October 2, 2008 10:57 AM

@4: yep, stereotypes ARE fun. and Georgia is richly deserving of ridicule, from the hellish auto-dependent, no-future sprawl of atlanta to the over-rated rap of the noted brainiac TI.

Posted by max solomon | October 2, 2008 11:20 AM

@12: And so's Seattle, with all its whiny, lazy, complacent, coffee-and-PBR-swilling hipsters with who don't have anything better to do than complain about their elected officials and bitch about every kind of transit without doing anything about any of it.

Yeah. Resorting to stereotypes is fun for the whole family and really contributes to every discourse.

Posted by Sweeney Agonistes | October 2, 2008 11:47 AM

I'm happy!

@3 and @11: Chatham County was also blue in '04; It's "Atlanta and Savannah Versus Everybody Else."

I've been at the early voting center twice in the past few weeks- first to register, then to vote-- and each time the place was full of blacks voting early.

I'm speculating that the Bradley effect won't matter here. If you're racist in the South, you own up to it using codewords and you vote Republican. Savannah-- and Atlanta too, iirc?-- have a long record of black mayors, officials, etc. People are comfortable with the idea of a black leader. It's about class, not color in that respect. (People are still conservative dimwits, though.)

My dreams of Georgia going blue are flimsy at best, but this slippage can force McCain to take resources away from battleground states to campaign here. That makes me happy.

Posted by rabbiter | October 2, 2008 1:03 PM

Also, GA went to Clinton in '92. There's precedent.

Posted by rabbiter | October 2, 2008 1:23 PM

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