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Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Re: Toast

posted by on October 1 at 13:55 PM

More battleground state polls, further supporting the toast theory from earlier today:

FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47

MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43

MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48

NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47

VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44

RSS icon Comments


How did we (MN) go from being a firmly blue state to a battleground state? Too scary...

Posted by Old_Mama_Chips | October 1, 2008 2:00 PM

@1: Hockey, annoying accents, drinking lots of six packs.

Posted by SippinALatte | October 1, 2008 2:18 PM

Of these states, only Minnesota is outside the margin of suppression (+/-10%).

Posted by DOUG. | October 1, 2008 2:32 PM

Margin of error, please?

A few points aren't exactly TOAST numbers, though clearly something starting to burn in the McCain/Palin appliance.

Posted by Andy Niable | October 1, 2008 3:02 PM

Now I understand Charles next post...lighten up people! This is fucking GREAT news! Do a little dance! Sing a little song! WE'RE AHEAD IN THE POLLS!!!

Posted by michael strangeways | October 1, 2008 3:05 PM

how are these polls being conducted? i feel like this election is going to have radically different voter turnouts than maybe any other election in history with black, latino, and young voters playing a major, and positive, factor in obama's favor. my skepticism remains that these three groups are being accurately polled.

Posted by douglas | October 1, 2008 3:21 PM

3.5 to 4%

Posted by Bellevue Ave | October 1, 2008 3:31 PM

If McCain is toast, is Sarah Palin the butter?

Posted by Fnarf | October 1, 2008 3:34 PM

I agree with Douglas...polling is not keeping pace with modern technology or recent trends towards the young and minorities. I think some results on November 4th are going to surprise a lot of people.

Posted by michael strangeways | October 1, 2008 3:46 PM

McCain buttered his own toast...Palin is like a gratuitous dollop of Nutella.

Posted by threnody | October 1, 2008 3:47 PM

If this keeps up (may or may not) we can at least be thinking about the possibility that a poll-driven sense of inevitability for a big national Obama victory might keep a lot of Rossi voters home (with similar effects on many races around the country).

Posted by Barak G | October 1, 2008 3:56 PM

new Rasmussen polls from TX and MS have Obama behind 9 and 8 points respectively...and the Senate races in both states are getting tight which is sad news for the Republican incumbents.

Kerry lost huge in those states, so for Obama to be pulling within margin of error distance with little or no campaigning in those states is amazing.

Posted by michael strangeways | October 1, 2008 4:18 PM

I love playing with the map here:

If you give Obama the states where he currently has a 5% lead or more, plus MN and NH, he wins. Even if McCain takes FL, OH, VA, IN, MO, NC AND NV!

If Obama loses PA, he can still win if he takes OH or FL or VA + NC.

Posted by banjoboy | October 1, 2008 4:35 PM

Fnarf @8,

Close, but not as close as Russia. Palin is chipped moose meat, to be spread on top of McCain's toast, then served at high school cafeterias all across this great land of ours once President "America's Heartbeat" Palin revives Reaganomics for a new generation.

In other words, chipped moose meat on toast will soon be the new ketchup. People get ready!

Posted by Jeff Stevens | October 1, 2008 6:14 PM

Didn't we discuss this earlier?

Bradley Effect

Posted by Eddy968 | October 1, 2008 8:33 PM

I liked the online CNN electoral map discussion today - got to watch it at Bulldog News during my coffee break.

But, yeah, why are we baby blue? We should be DARK DARK BLUE!

Posted by Will in Seattle | October 1, 2008 10:11 PM

I see your Bradley Effect and I raise you a nobody-under-35-has-a-landline.

Posted by threnody | October 1, 2008 10:44 PM

I'd love to pop the champagne cork as much as anyone, but I'm crossing every cross-able body part (fingers, toes, eyes, etc) until the election is called for Obama on the front page of all of the 11/5 papers.

Then again, come to think of it, I may not really believe it until 1/20/09.

Posted by Mr. X | October 2, 2008 12:59 AM

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