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Thursday, October 23, 2008

Life Support

posted by on October 23 at 18:18 PM

Jinx Alert! Read no further if you believe that having optimistic thoughts may rain down terrible ruin on the world. Seriously, Dan, stop reading.

The latest from

This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he’s had perhaps his worst one of the year.

Here’s the fun composite of fun 538 graphs. (Now with histogram!)


3.7%!!! Suck it, McCain! Here are the rest of today’s polls.

My own personal paranoid worry focuses on that little blip in the histogram right around 280. It was taller yesterday, though, so that’s good news, and it’s still a winning number, but it’s too close for comfort.

Here’s some more inspiring photos from an Obama rally in Richmond, via John Gruber, who notes that “the people in this photo slideshow all *seem* to look like real Americans.”

RSS icon Comments


This is great, but it is because of shenanigans that the only number to watch on 548 is the LANDSLIDE statistic in the column on the right.

That is the percentage chance of a Democrat actually winning.

Posted by StC | October 23, 2008 6:31 PM

And for those still worried about the GWU and AP outlying poles, just research around a bit and you'll see plenty of accounts of how their age weighting is messed up and their sampling is inadequate (because it's turning out samples of those under 35 too small to be used).
Now the question is if there will be a bandwagon effect. The undecided number is still significant. Either we end up with some folks bolting to Nader and company, figuring that the outcome is already a given, or we likely end up with a lot of people who kind of want to vote for Obama, but don't want to do it unless he's likely to win.

Posted by kinaidos | October 23, 2008 6:32 PM

Remember that the histogram is quantum, not continuous. Some electoral vote totals are more likely than others just because of how the states shake out, while other numbers are virtually impossible to achieve even if higher ones are more likely. The blip at 280 just means that the probabilities for that particular state combination has taken a jump upwards.

Posted by Fnarf | October 23, 2008 7:12 PM

96.3%!! That's the highest it's been, I do believe.

Posted by Julie in Chicago | October 23, 2008 7:14 PM

What a bunch of concern trolls at the stranger. Have any of them ever faced adversity and triumphed?

Posted by Bellevue Ave | October 23, 2008 7:23 PM

No, Bellevue, I have only faced adversity and fallen down and died, over and over and over again. But thanks for asking.

Posted by Fnarf | October 23, 2008 7:25 PM

Fnarf, you aren't worried about what histrograms show because you know what it actually means. And you don't work for the stranger...yet.

Posted by Bellevue Ave | October 23, 2008 7:32 PM

I will slog as soon as I can see my screen. OMG Barack Obama's voice, OMG!

Posted by 4f...sake | October 23, 2008 7:45 PM

96.3% and you are worried? Boy, your glass is always half empty, huh...

And @8, get used to it. Like when the losing team finally wins. All I know is if the roles were reversed, Republicans would be sipping champagne, not figuring out exactly how the election will be stolen, andtheresnothingwecandoaboutsoImmovingtocananda!!!!

Posted by hal | October 23, 2008 7:53 PM

Didn't Brendan Kiley kick a gas huffing habit? And I think he broke his foot that one time. Oh, and what about DJ Fucking In The Streets. Remember when they wouldn't print his name on a flyer? I could go on.

Tons of adversity, overcoming of. Tons.

Mostly though, this is about the heartbreak of Gore and Kerry losing to monkeyface.

Posted by elenchos | October 23, 2008 8:15 PM

I have triumphed over wanting both wall ovens AND exposed beams in my home, but only getting wall ovens.

Posted by Catalina Vel-DuRay | October 23, 2008 8:29 PM

the audio from the slide show of the Richmond campaign stop ... it deafening.

It is amazing the difference in attitudes and sound between Obama rallies and McCain rallies ... the former inspiring hope, the latter hate and fear.

Posted by Gordon | October 23, 2008 9:57 PM

listen to the crowd as Obama comes on stage

Posted by Gordon | October 23, 2008 9:59 PM

We won't support spine-less NO-Bama and will re-defeat him in November !! Go Hillary 2012 !!!

Posted by clintonsarmy | October 23, 2008 11:18 PM

Oh clintonsarmy... You used to have relevance...

Posted by disintegrator | October 24, 2008 4:38 AM

You just wait and see what happens if Obama wins. There will be as fierce an opposition to high taxes, universal health care, and surrender in the War on Terror as you've ever seen.

Loyal Americans will sweep the Marxists out of power in '10, and will undo Barack Hussein Osama's pro-Muslim policies, and will likely impeach him, as well the deputies in the Democrat Party who supported him.

Two years of darkness will lead to a thousand years of the American Shining City on a Hill!

Posted by Lord Basil | October 24, 2008 7:13 AM

@17: And lemme guess . . . this will all be organized through blog comments and message boards?

Posted by Ziggity | October 24, 2008 7:50 AM

I've been assured that all the conservatives are moving to North Idaho after the election and are going to build 20 foot high wall around the state until a Republican is elected president again.

Posted by Smade | October 24, 2008 9:07 AM

Just get out and Vote!

Posted by Schweighsr | October 24, 2008 9:46 AM

The New York Times is not quite as optimistic as Real clear Politics about the elctoral outcome although they still give Obama a big advantage. The contend there are more stes in play. for comparison both are appended.
Here is NYT

This electoral map was posted yesterday on slog from Real Clear

Posted by inkweary | October 24, 2008 10:19 AM

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