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Thursday, September 11, 2008

The Real Race

posted by on September 11 at 16:14 PM

For now…

New Daily Kos Tracking Poll: Obama 47% McCain 45% Barr 2%

…Unlike many other media outfits, we will not simply tout our own poll, but include information from other polls as we find them. For example, today, Rasmussen is tied at 48, Diageo/Hotline has McCain 46, Obama 44 and Gallup has McCain 48,Obama 44.

The bleeding has stopped and, according to Gallup, Obama’s revival has began. The situation? Waiting for Palin to deliver a blow or implode.

According to Karl Rove, however, Obama must not attack Palin because there is no way he’d win that matchup:

If Mr. Obama wants to win, he needs to remember hes running against John McCain for president, not Mrs. Palin for vice president.

But let’s be frank: this election is not about McCain and Obama—Obama already won that race. This election is about Obama and Palin. That is the state of American politics at this moment. The two are young and have consolidated their parties. If you vote for Obama, you are voting for Obama; if you vote for McCain, you are voting for Palin. McCain is long out of the picture.

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Karl Rove needs to remember that once his boys are out of power, his ass will be in a sling.

Posted by michael strangeways | September 11, 2008 4:58 PM

There's a great deal of truth to this not completely accurate analysis.

Posted by Chris in Tampa | September 11, 2008 4:59 PM

Um, no. Obama is running against McCain and needs to call McCain on his lying bullshit as much as possible. Joe Biden is the one who should be calling Sarah Palin a lying pinhead.

Posted by Fnarf | September 11, 2008 5:14 PM

mccain will be back in the picture at the debates. there won't be a single skirt to hide behind.

Posted by max solomon | September 11, 2008 5:33 PM

Cut. The. Crap.

There is absolutelly nothing int he Gallup Daily Tracking post for today backing up the mis-statement that Gallup is saying there is an Obama revival.

You can't just make stuff up, you know.

What Gallup Daily Tracking says is this:

"PRINCETON, NJ -- Registered voters continue to express a slight preference for John McCain (48%) over Barack Obama (44%) in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking presidential trial heat.
These results, based on Sept. 8-10 polling, show McCain continuing to ride his post-convention bounce. He has held a statistically significant lead over Obama in each of the last four three-day rolling averages. In addition, since Sept. 5 -- the first night after the Republican National Convention -- he has outpolled Obama in each of the last six individual night's polling. That consistent pattern in the night-to-night data suggests that McCain has a stable lead for now."

Got that? He has a stable lead for now. Not the made-up-crap that Obama is reviving.

To continue:

"This is McCain's best performance since late April and early May, when he was ahead of Obama in eight consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports, which included a campaign-best six percentage point lead. In March, shortly after he clinched the Republican Party's presidential nomination, McCain was ahead of Obama in 19 consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)"

Got that? this is McCain's best since Late April early May -- not one word about any Obama revival.

"Both Obama and McCain are taking a break from the partisan campaign to remember 9/11 today. However, the biggest campaign story may be Sarah Palin's first television interview since she was selected as McCain's running mate. She will be interviewed by Charles Gibson of ABC News and the interview will be televised in parts over the next two days. -- Jeff Jones"

I'd have to say based on the interview excerpts, she continues to drive liberals nuts, but they/we are already voting for Obama, and everything she said sort of made sense to middle American swing voters, so, no, there is no evidence of any Obama revival and the statement there was is just so much made up crap.

Perhaps this is why there is no link provided.

Posted by PC | September 11, 2008 5:49 PM

Anything Karl Rove says should be interpreted cynically- he's telling Obama to do the opposite of what Rove thinks would be effective.

Posted by east coaster | September 11, 2008 7:59 PM

Only fools extrapolate 1 to 3 points within the margin of error to spin some seasoning to their hyperbole. This volley by both sides is going to drive us crazy in what's sure to be a neck-in-neck race to the finish.

Posted by raindrop | September 11, 2008 11:46 PM

McCain who?

Posted by Will in Seattle | September 11, 2008 11:50 PM

Something is fishy with these latest numbers:

"One reason for the dramatic difference between the two recent CBS polls is that the two samples differed fairly dramatically in terms of partisan composition. The first sample was 35.2% Democratic, 26.2 percent Republicans, and 38.6 percent independent. The second sample was 34.9% Democratic, 31.1% Republican, and 34.0% independent. That's a change from a 9 point Democratic advantage to a 3.8 point Democratic advantage. That alone would probably explain about half of the difference in candidate preferences between the two [CBS] polls."

If the latest polling is correct, it represents a massive shift in party identification, undoing years of advances by the Democratic party. I think a bit of skepticism is in order here.

Posted by Furcifer | September 12, 2008 2:46 AM

What more interesting about those numbers is not the difference in the democrats' numbers, but the huge difference in the number of republicans. 26.2% to 31.1%? 5% of the total will make a difference.

Posted by patrick | September 12, 2008 3:52 AM

No offence, but reading your snippets regarding the polls on Slog the past few days, I can't help but think you're seeing "silver linings" regarding the numbers (McCain vs. Obama). It's fairly obvious that the poll numbers have swung since the Palin selection in favor of McCain. Look at the Electoral count. That is not to say Obama will lose the election. It is to say, that if one supports Obama this election it is way too close to call. This is what is discomforting to Dems.

Posted by lark | September 12, 2008 8:38 AM

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