HAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

Sorry about the "calm" crack, ECB. Slogging faster than I'm thinking... be gracious in triumph, though. It's still possible that Obama will wind up with more delegates tonight.

Yes We Will!

Dan, he'd have to win Texas by a reasonable amount to win more delegates tonight than HRC, don't you think? She's already won two states to his one. And the big margin he won in Vermont is pretty much canceled out bty the big margin she won in RI.

You really don't know how elections work yet, Erica? How is that possible?

senator obama most likely will be ahead in delegates, no doubt, but obama supporters such as CNN should stop calling ohio a close fought election. lets be clear, she kicked his ass.

it might be the last one she gives so at least give her props.

i think tina fey turned this for HRC.

a higher percentage than she was leading by when I asked why they weren’t calling it 45 minutes ago.

Yeah, it's as if they think the current result becomes more likely as more votes are counted! Those dumb statisticians. They're probably all Obama supporters.

Clearly you aren't the only one Slogging faster than they are thinking... ECB doesn't even seem bother with an attempt to understand what is going on tonight before she posts.

Here's some advice: They mentioned several times why they were waiting to call Ohio and perhaps you would have understood that if you would have tried listening to the damn reporters for more than 30 seconds.

You gotta love Ohio voters, they deliver the state to Dubya twice and now they support the only candidate that can keep the Dems out of the white house again.

Woo hoo! hope you're enjoying your recession, Ohio, cause you earned it at the polls!

I am calling Penn for Obama. Like Erika when she was bitching earlier I don't really have any basis for this, but god damn it it has to be true.

Of course when Obama does win I will point to this as how I was right all along.

let's be fair here; ECB is basking in the glow of a victory and she hasnt had that sensation for weeks now.

@ myself at 4, actually considering how HRC has been doing in caucuses I think Dan's actually right and Clinton may very well come out behind tonight. Hmmm

Poot.

Go on gurl, gloat! Do it for Hillary!

PICK FLICK!!!

What happened was, a small burst of urban votes were reported, and they weren't for Obama by enough. I'm sure they have targets for all of them, and Obama has to take, say, 60% of Columbus and Cleveland votes -- but he only has 56%, or whatever it is. So they are able to say that he's not going to make up the considerable ground. It's pretty straightforward, actually.

Franklin is 80% in, 56-43. Cuyahoga is 5% in (that's the little spurt), Clinton still leads.

In other, very poorly-reported news today, FL repubs say they now have no objection to the dems holding another primary so it will count. Gee, I wonder who would win that?

I've actually followed enough elections in 10 years doing this that I know how hard it is to turn around a margin that big, even with support in "huge" (700K) cities like Columbus.

@4: It's based on district counts, and so that's one reason the whole "XYZ won California!" means nothing: the popular winner of a state doesn't necessarily take the most delegates: I believe that Obama won more delegates in Nevada, despite Hillary's "win." Also, based on ruralvote.com's count so far, Obama will probably increase his delegate lead for today, if by only a small amount, based on what's happened so far.
It also makes the hyperventilating about "Why haven't they called Ohio??!?!" even more pointless.

And for the OP:
So because an incomplete count *happens* to be close to a later, less-incomplete count, they shouldn't waited to call the state until they were more sure? Did you ever hear about a little kerfuffle in Florida, somewhere around 2000?

ECB, what was the highest level of math you completed in college?

C. Matthews interesting comment:
in 1960 Johnson opposed JFK in a bitter fight.

At the convention LBJ had John connoly go out and on the convention floor say JFK sufffered from Addison's disease and was only kept alive thru steroid drugs.

Wowie.

Of course, Connoly then got a cabinet position and LBJ the VP slot and they united and narrowly beat Nixon.

So all this brou ha ha that the current fight between Clinton and Obama is too unseemly, or we can't unite, is just baloney.

The party is split, the voters are split, there is no predominant side -- thou Obama is ahead and likely will win -- so the easiest way to achive unity is for the no. 2 to get the no. 2 slot.

What, Obama's going to preach unity then pass her over? WTF?

The voters are disproving the theories that Obama is some kind of inevitable winner -- he can't win Ohio or RI apparently -- and the theory that Clinton is this big loser.

Deal.

HRC: no recent president won the White House without winning the Ohio primary.

For months I've been hangin' on the sidelines tsk-tsking the idiots picking on ECB but... for a person in her position to demonstrate such ignorance of the electoral process and basic mathematics and then to post THIS is... ACH! ACH! ACH!

Damn Erica, you can really be rude. The title of your post is full of vitriol and sarcasm and conceit, and then you dare to end about how you are feeling "calm" and call Dan out on the mat about how he dares to suggest your initial "WTF?" post was a bit premature?

Piss off.

also ECB, doesnt the situation in Ohio seem like a good analogy for the nation by your own 10 year qualitative analysis of elections? While huge states like ohio and texas are being counted they wont make nearly the impact that hillary needs to turn the election towards her in pledged deleagates.

"tested and ready" - i guess if the definition of tested and ready is voting to send young kids to die in an unnecessary because it wouldnt be politcally expedient to have the spine to vote against it, then yes, Hillary, you are the "tested and ready" candidate. You have been tested, and you are ready to let us down AGAIN! you go girl.

unPC: By Ohio, the nominees are usually clear. Months after Iowa and New Hampshire, we've often had nothing left to decide...
This year is a special case.

torrentprime, there is no ruralvote.com

Where are you getting that from?

god you're a bitch.

mccain...clinton...
this election is already toast.
we are so fucked.

Of course Ohio went for Hillary. It's the Stockholm Syndrome. They voted for the lady who looks like the one who had the big meeting and told them they didn't have jobs anymore, but the company really, really liked them.

Clinton still doesn't have enough delegates EVEN IF Florida and Michigan were seated as-is, EVEN IF the 40% "uncommitted" in MI were not given to Obama (though they clearly belong to him).

She STILL needs a big win in PA and NC both, or a major shift in the superdelegates (who are unlikely to declare anything now).

Wouldn't it be funny if it came down to Puerto Rico, 55 delegates, last on the slate, June 7th?

While I don't agree with Erica's pro-Hillary position, or particularly appreciate her tone. . . I'm AWFULLY glad that the Stranger staff has an opinionated, dissenting voice. It would be awfully boring if the whole crew were totally cumming all over Obama 24/7, right?

So, could ya stop being such a bunch of jackasses? Yeah? Maybe? Remember, attack the idea, not the person. ;)

@ Fnarf, haha, I would *love* to see the footage of Clinton and Obama stumping in Puerto Rico!!

That would be hilarious!!

On another note, I know Obama is going to win. That said, I can't help but feel invigorated by democracy for the first time in ... my whole life. The fact is, this is a close campaign. It continues to be a close campaign. That Clinton could win two states after LOSING 11 or whatever straight battles suggests to me that both Obama and Clinton are made of much stronger mettle than any of the other Kerry/Dean/Edwards/Gore types we've had on the ballot recently. And that makes me really proud to be a Democrat.

I don't know about you all, but I think Obama is fucked now.

It's 56-42 now, so four points of your bolded lead are gone now. That's about a 20 delegate lead for Clinton; I predict it will be 15 by tomorrow. The others are (so far) basically a wash.

If you think these posts amount to ECB and I pissing at each other... you should hear us talk to each other at work. This is nothing.

Yeah! Let's celebrate! Some white voters who would never vote for a black man gave the state to Clinton! We won! Now let's talk about unity and coming toghether as a party, and please; ignore Hillary's obvious race baiting. Sore losers.

OMG FNARF you really do not want to let it go, do you? @ post 5 you couldn't have been a bigger douche to erica, and now you are complaining that clintons lead is only 14 percentage points and not 18. and rhode island is not a wash. it more that negated obamas vermont win.

Violet,

I agree that some people just seem overly angry about ECB and that a little class would be nice to see. But I don't think it's the idea of a pro-Hillary stance that they're opposing. Most Obama supporters I know (and certainly I myself) like Sen. Clinton and would support her strongly if she became the party's nominee. We're mostly rational people who aren't going to yell at dissenters.

It's the attitude that ECB so regularly adopts, the slight condescension and bitterness, that's putting these folks off. The person, not the idea.

I'm happy Hillary will fight on. And I'm happy ECB will continue speaking out for Hillary (and not for Obama). And I'm happy Erica is happy.

THe biggest voting block is in San Juan Obama would be competetive there, but he will not win Bayamon, Ponce or Rio Piedras,PR wwould go to HRC. Hopefully it will not get that far. By then old man mccains war chest would be too huge. Unless she kicks ass in PA which is possible. Obama would win Philly but rural PA would go HRC, Howard Dean is going to have to step up and ask HRC to drop out.

Of course you are *calm*. The status quo is comforting like a warm blanket, I would imagine.

@41, I don't think so. I think Obama is totally fucked up the ass by Hillary with a giant strap on shaped like Bill Clinton's cock. And Monica is giving Bill a nasty rim job.

Miss Stereo @42,

This video will make you laugh. It's two young mothers discussing the election.

Ready or Not?

What this really says about Ohio is that they will not vote for an African American, and Hilary is pretty much as *old guard* as any white male, so I do not see how this is a win for misguided *feminists*.

V @ 44: that is crazy--I totally had NOT seen that! I laughed even though I am pretty depressed right now. That vid is funny because it is sad AND true.

Congrats ECB - your candidate just won, she's destroying the positive message that Democrats could have used to win, she's destroying the new political base that Democrats could have taken forward for the next 5 elections, she's dividing the party based on race and gender, she's winning the votes primarily from people who couldn't fucking graduate from high school, let alone college, she's continuing the battles of the 90's (from which we got GWB and absolutely no long-lasting victories), she's pretty close to leading people like me to defect from a party that's not smart enough to see what was offered to them in a brilliant man who was running a positive, inspiring campaign.

If she manages to steal this election, women are going to get what they deserve - a McCain presidency and a Supreme Court that fucks them every way possible for the next 30 years. Yeah, let's fucking celebrate. She's not going to win in November because people like me (a young, upper-middle class, upwardly mobile white male - someone who really doesn't lose with any of the candidates) won't vote for her with a gun against my head. Fuck y'all, I'll take my tax-cut and my currently affordable healthcare and go home. If the people of this country think that a Clinton can give them what they need (and won't triangulate them into more welfare reform, more DOMA, more NAFTA) then good on 'em - I'll be good either way.

Oh yeah, how could I forget - she's still got a fucking almost insurmountable deficit in the delegate count, she's going to have to further divide the party and make McCain's day to win, she's still behind in money, Obama evidently has 50 superdelegates ready to come out for him in the next week, and she still hasn't shown that she can win any state (possibly other than Ohio tonight) that Kerry didn't win and the national polls don't look good for her against McCain. There is nothing to think that she's electable, there's nothing to think that the GOP isn't salivating to run against her, and don't forget, it took her going negative to squeek out wins tonight, and he hasn't gone negative on her yet - and if you think there's not a treasure-trove of negatives to go after her for (tax returns, White House records...vetted my ass) then you're fucking stupid.

This is incredible - fucking Democrats can't do anything right.

Muzak fills the air from Senaca to Cuyahoga Falls. Way to go, Ohio.

But she knows how to wear a pantsuit. The post-menopause crowd really appreciates that.

Everyone is so stupid and didn't even graduate from high school and they aren't voting for Obama. These stupid people shouldn't be allowed to vote at all. They're ruining it!

What Ed @47 said. Thanks, Ed.

Calm down Obamanation. Wait til the morning to start seeing how the delegates are really going to shake out.

She really is done, but it now will drag out, but I'm calmer about it. the Dem party will weather the long drizzle.

As Kos said earlier today, the question is whether she bows out now with dignity intact or drags it out and turns herself into the Huckabee of the Dem party. He doesn't think either way will hurt the Dem party in the end.

What kos likes is how these hard fought primaries do dramatic things for party building at the state and local level.

Here's a vid of Clinton basically saying McCain would make a better president than Obama. Way to go ECB! Way to pick em!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou4JnWQsxKw

I'm glad to see people coming out against people who didn't graduate from high school. People with less opportunity or ability than you are contemptible, don't you agree?

ECB: Does it bother you that you are supporting the candidate who now is just winning it with over-60 yr olds and people without educations. Or are we all idiot followers and the trailer parks and the old folks homes are the true "pulse of the nation"?

It's official, Clinton wins with the redneck vote solidly behind her. Seriously, look at the map of Texas showing which counties she won, then consult the Stranger's Urban Archipelago.

The redneck vote huh? Sounds like southern Ohio too.

Maybe race will do Obama in against McCain after all, but a weak-ass GOP season and candidate than this would be hard to find if one wants to break the race or gender barrier to the presidency.

Yeah, southern Ohio borders Kentucky and West Virginia. Like I said, redneck vote.
On every measure Clinton won the older, whiter, less-educated vote, the people who would never vote for a black man in a million years.

@57 - Then how do you 'splain North Dakota going for O? Or is it because white men would rather vote for a black man than a woman of any color? Nah - too simplistic.

And yeah, Ohio's river borders @ KY and WV really define the mindset of the State. Not! Once again - glittering generalities are just that - shiny things for ignorant people to embrace so they can have a yeah-buddy conversation in the morning with like-minded dorks.

Look forward to buying drinks for Erica, Big Sven and Original Monique at some future Slog nog.

@54

people without educations

Actually, ECB, all the Sloggers I was talking to tonite who are pro-Obama were doing fine.

You're the ones who are worried.

@47

Holy shit! Cousin Ed reads slog! He could never spell the word squeak properly but I'll be damned if he didn't always make a hell of a point...

All terrible jokes aside, Ed sounds like every male member of my family, and they're not kidding. Sure, they lie to the pollsters, but they will NEVER vote for HRC. Fuck. That's all.