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Saturday, February 23, 2008

Quick & Dirty Oscar Picks

posted by on February 23 at 17:27 PM

My wild guesses are as follows:

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men

Actor in a Leading Role: Daniel Day Lewis (There Will Be Blood)

Actress in a Leading Role: Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)—this is not necessarily the conventional wisdom, and I think the role was written without nuance, but Julie Christie already has an Oscar, and Away from Her was such a quiet movie. I also think people will feel guilty for not voting for Persepolis in the animated feature category—since it wasn’t nominated for foreign film—and will try to make it up to the Frenchies here.

Actress in a Supporting Role: I almost want to say Saoirse Ronan (Atonement), because Oscar voters haven’t given it to a kid since Anna Paquin, and who doesn’t love an Irish accent? But nobody agrees with me. And besides, everybody loves a crossdresser. Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There).

Actor in a Supporting Role: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)

Directing: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)

Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody (Juno)

Adapted Screenplay: The Coen Bros again (No Country for Old Men)

Animated Feature: Ratatouille

Animated Short: I’ve actually seen all of these. Madame Tutli-Putli is gorgeous, but fairly dark for Oscar tastes. Still, you have to admire the animation, and—unlike Peter and the Wolf—it looks wonderful in film stills.

Documentary Feature: No End in Sight, to make up for the fact that the many war-themed narrative features didn’t make a dent in the prestige nominations, and because Sicko is kind of unsatisfying.

Documentary Short: I think Stranger Genius Award winner James Longley really has a chance this year. But I don’t want to jinx him. Elderly yet openminded Oscar voters want to make a statement about gay rights: Freeheld.

Live Action Short: These were all bad. I’m going to go with the lachrymose At Night, even though it’s a pain to sit through. The others are just too cheesy.

Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer (Atonement)

Cinematography: I’m going to go with two-time winner Janusz Kaminski for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly—who wrote me an angry email when I partially attributed the blissed-out look of the film to the director. There’s a passionate lobbyist. NCFOM can’t win everything, There Will Be Blood’s Robert Elswit is this year’s Emmanuel Lubezki, and the flashiest scene in Atonement—the long Dunkirk Steadycam shot—is inert.

Costume Design: Atonement, which will be such a fuck you to Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

Film Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum, because bestest means mostest, and the Coens are hiding under a pseudonym.

Foreign Language Film: The Counterfeiters—voting for the Israeli movie that muscled out The Band’s Visit would be bad form, and the others are wacky.

Makeup: La Vie en Rose’s surprisingly effective old age makeup

Music (Score): Dario Marianelli (Atonement)—flashy but not bombastic

Music (Song): “Falling Slowly,” Once

… and the total crapshoots:

Sound Editing: No Country for Old Men

Sound Mixing: Transformers

Visual Effects: Transformers

Am I right, or am I crazy? Be here for David Schmader’s liveblog of the Oscars, tomorrow at 5 pm.

RSS icon Comments


While I think There Will Be Blood was a better movie than Old Country, I can appreciate giving the Coen bros some well deserved praise.

Juno was great, but nothing earth shattering.

The only one I am really rooting for is Persepolis. Beyond being a more profound film than Ratatouille, giving the award to an Iranian writer/director would be a wonderful gesture.

Although, Ratatouille did contain what is probably my favorite quote of the year-

"Food always comes to those who love to cook."

Posted by Cale | February 23, 2008 6:35 PM

I more or less agree, Cale. I will still gnash my teeth if There Will Be Blood and Daniel D. get slighted in the least. That film continues to rattle around in my skull, whereas No Country was too flawed to be called a work of genius, which TWBB was in spades.

Posted by Marko Constans | February 23, 2008 7:13 PM

Sorry, AW is hopefully right "No country" is a far superior film.

Posted by poster girl | February 23, 2008 8:06 PM

I think your main picks are pretty much spot on - and very likely.

Posted by Will in Seattle | February 23, 2008 10:50 PM

Right on for Music (Song): “Falling Slowly,”
Wish they had been up for more movie I have seen in a while.

Posted by ballardgirl | February 23, 2008 10:53 PM

Ratatouille made my skin crawl. I do not want rats, animated/loveable or not, anywhere near my food.

What a terrible film.

Posted by PA Native | February 23, 2008 11:14 PM

Even though it fell short of the Novel, my vote has to go to "No Country for Old Men."

The book impacted me, the movie did so less but that is to be expected.

Moral of the story, best movie is a shadow of the book:)

Posted by Gabriel | February 24, 2008 4:05 AM

Janusz Kaminski chucked a hissy fit at you? It's a shame he didn't do it over the phone. The man has a voice like Dr Nick Riviera.

Posted by Donovan | February 24, 2008 7:52 AM

Dang, you were pretty much right on the mark! Impressive, or maybe just another sign that you are a bellwether.

Posted by Murgen | February 24, 2008 11:15 PM

ok,you were right about obama, and you were scary right about the oscars...

any good stock tips? (email me!! don't tell everyone!!)

Posted by exiled in LA | February 25, 2008 3:09 AM

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