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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Causa Y Efecto

posted by on February 12 at 15:04 PM

The signs of flight among Latino immigrants here are multiple: Families moving out of apartment complexes, schools reporting enrollment drops, business owners complaining about fewer clients.

While it is too early to know for certain, a consensus is developing among economists, business people and immigration groups that the weakening economy coupled with recent curbs on illegal immigration are steering Hispanic immigrants out of the state.

A persistent decline in the immigrant population could damage the overall Arizona economy, Ms. McLaren said. A study by the Pew Hispanic Center released in January said illegal workers made up close to 11 percent of the state’s work force of 2.9 million people in 2006, double the national estimate.

Another possibility remains, a reversal of the causality. The horrific scapegoating of immigrants by the political party in power causes the immigrants to (rationally) leave—collapsing an underground economy, leading to broader economic distress.

In other words, the simple-minded bigotry of the Republican party might be contributing to the economic downturn.

Which way is it? How can we tell?

… a drop in Border Patrol arrests — they have been steadily declining the last couple of years — typically preceded an economic downturn or slowing.

Causes, generally, precede effects.

RSS icon Comments


to be fair though golob (i just love your last name), what was the original cause of illegal immigrants moving here? economic opportunity?

Posted by Bellevue Ave | February 12, 2008 3:10 PM

there might be secondary effects to immigrants leaving but the initial cause of immigrants leaving has to be determined. real estate construction is the culprit here.

Posted by Bellevue Ave | February 12, 2008 3:20 PM

The real crisis is that the loss of immigrants makes it harder to preserve the illusion that the proleteriat is actually the bourgoisie. We'd better invade someone else quickly to distract them. There's nothing like an invasion to make a Ford Truck seem like an emblem of the middle class, well, other than a mexican washing dishes at the local chinese restaurant.

Posted by kinaidos | February 12, 2008 3:26 PM

Did you mean precede?

Posted by NaFun | February 12, 2008 3:37 PM

That I did, NaFun. I miss my copy editors!

Corrected and thanks.

Posted by Jonathan Golob | February 12, 2008 3:43 PM

Am shocked at the misspelling shown here. Shocked.

Also, "y" in a Spanish title or caption is not capitalized. Por lo regular.
One aspect of immigrants leaving will be to further weaken the demand and prices for housing.
If 1% of the population leaves that would reduce demand for apts. which in turn frees them up for the lower end of the housing market, reducing demand for houses and condos, too.

Throw out the workers, wreck the economy.

Muy inteligente.

Posted by unPC | February 12, 2008 3:44 PM

Exactly, it should be 'y'. But I'm guessing housing impacts might be a major impact, along with the massive drop in temp workers - it's a lot easier to find work when demand for temp workers is high, if you have fake credentials.

Posted by Will in Seattle | February 12, 2008 4:19 PM

It really seems to me like residential construction activity has dried up in the last few months. It could be seasonal, but I'm not even seeing proposals for projects starting in the spring.

It also seems like there are a lot less guys by the Lowes and Home Depots, but that is also strictly antcedotal.

Posted by catalina vel-duray | February 12, 2008 4:32 PM

Maybe I'm reading this incorrectly, but are people actually arguing that illegal immigrants-who work for dirt, cannot join unions, are incredibly abused by employers-should be kept around because it makes the economy better for the rest of us? And you're calling the right racist?

Posted by Marty | February 13, 2008 8:21 AM

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