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Monday, January 21, 2008

The Reverse Bradley Effect

posted by on January 21 at 9:27 AM

Last week, I slogged a post titled “The Reverse Bradley Effect” scoffing at a New York Times article which said the black vote was split on Obama.

Nonsense, I said. And indeed, while Hillary Clinton scored 64% of the Hispanic vote in Nevada, Obama scored 79% of the black vote. This spells big trouble for Clinton in South Carolina, where some 50 percent of Democratic primary voters are black.

Footnote: Clinton won the female vote in Nevada—about 52 to 35. I imagine both the Clinton and Obama campaigns are ringing black women’s phones off the hook this week.

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The thing is, Josh, the female vote isn't a footnote. It's clear from the few primaries so far that women, many of whom are in the older, richer, more likely to vote group, are turning out for Clinton in historic proportions. They're swamping the polls, and turning this tight race.

The thing about "the female vote" is that it's not a small or special-interest segment; it's EVERYBODY, every kind of American. You can if you want to live in total isolation from blacks, hispanics, gays, what have you, but everybody is, or has, women. And I'm starting to think they're running this show even if they mostly don't run the institutions that surround it.

What that means for Obama, or for the general election, I don't know. But he'd better find a way to get some of them back.

Posted by Fnarf | January 21, 2008 9:54 AM

So is there a pundit-ese name for the hypothetical phenomenon wherein women may go for Hillary in the voting booth while being hesitant to admit it in the presence of husbands/family?

Posted by tsm | January 21, 2008 10:14 AM

Oprah has already Decided....

Posted by NapoleonXIV | January 21, 2008 11:00 AM

@1: Obama would have no problem getting women to vote for him in the general, since women tend to vote for Ds--especially in an election cycle like this one, with the economy and health care and war on people's minds. (Witness the massive gender imbalance in the D/R primaries so far.) Meanwhile, HRC would have no problem getting blacks in the general, since blacks tend to vote for Ds (in even greater numbers). The stats that matter, it seems to me, are HRC attracting slightly older people and Obama attracting independents--neither of which group can be relied on to vote D in the general.

Posted by annie | January 21, 2008 11:09 AM

So, I realized that I get really excited every time Bill comes in to defend Hilary against any attacks. I like to see him defending her. It's like Hillary is pretty tough but it is fun to watch her man defend her and fight for her when she needs it.

Like most feminists who love Bill I was pissed when he got caught with Lewenski (for a lot of reasons) so I get happy when I see him fighting for her.

Stand by your Woman Bill! And keep smacking em' down when they talk smack on her.

Posted by Girl Friday | January 21, 2008 11:11 AM

But both of which are necessary to WIN the general. I'm not partisan here; I just really, really want to win the general election. I think Clinton is making a much stronger case for her ability to do so now than she was a few months ago.

Devious little me is thinking the best thing to do would be to nominate Clinton and then maneuver McCain into making some kind of "we can't let this goddamn lesbo broad run the country" statement, or set up a bogus McCain-supporting 527 to make it for him, thereby securing her 99% of the female vote and victory.

But I'm still for Obama. Slightly.

Posted by Fnarf | January 21, 2008 11:14 AM
Like most feminists who love Bill I was pissed when he got caught with Lewenski (for a lot of reasons) so I get happy when I see him fighting for her.

So, as a feminist, you like seeing women have to rely on their husbands to get ahead? Huh?

Posted by uh, makes sense | January 21, 2008 11:31 AM

Women are voting based on gender. Now African Americans are voting based on race. This did not happen until New Hampshire. It is a sad and troubling thing but it is how it is.
Women (white women) started this in New Hampshire after she cried. Clinton was favored among african americans until they tactically decided to alineate them in order to force them to Obama and trigger a backlash of white voters. This is brilliant and sick. If the republicans did it...

Posted by Sarah | January 26, 2008 10:01 AM

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