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NH primary analysis:

Each is worth 2 points shift to HRC:

1. non rotating ballot placement
2. tears-- not for sexist reasons, but just because showed HRC is human & cares
3. self deprecating joke about not being liked -- likable
4. Obama's smugness when saying "you're likable enough, Hillary"
5. sense among I's that Obama didn't need their vote, but McCain did
6. Intense media nastiness aimed at HRC between IA and NH

The next is 2 points against HRC:

7. Bill pointing finger/being mad

net result 10 points shift

BUT mainly all this had an impact in just 203 days due to (A) the intense engagedness of NH voters in the context and (b) the modern media and internet mean (i) all information spreads like fire on gasoline, and (ii) information today is more visual (so these little up-close, human" moments have a greater impact). 3 days is the same as 3 weeks back in '92.

And thus a 10 point shift is not so surprising.

PS--the Bradley effect could be there, or could be speculation. This is a Democratic primary, not a general election.

Posted by unPC | January 12, 2008 5:58 PM

mea culpa: 2-3 days not 203 days

Posted by unPC | January 12, 2008 6:00 PM

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