Tuesday, November 24, 2009
City The Fundamental Question About McGinn's Win
Posted by Eli Sanders on Tue, Nov 24, 2009 at 3:32 PM
I'm glad that this partial transcript of last night's political consultant face-off has been posted by Publicola, because it exposes what I think is the most important interpretive divide regarding this year's race for mayor.
The divide is created by this question:
Was the McGinn phenomenon simply a one-off anomaly in Seattle politics, or was it the first sign of a defining shift in the makeup of the Seattle electorate?
Last night Bill Broadhead, McGinn's top political consultant, answered the question this way:
There’s so many people that wish this was a one-time thing… that there was somebody behind the curtain that cast a magic spell for a few minutes and they can just go back to believing what they believed before and nothing really changed.But I’ve got to to tell you, from someone in my position, the math has changed in Seattle. The fundamental political math has changed. And part of that is a demographic shift, part of that is a values switch, it’s a self-selecting thing of progressive voters moving to Seattle—you know, it's as we're getting younger, as there's new urbanism coming up, Web 2.0. You can talk a lot about why you can't put Humpty Dumpty back together again, but there's a fundamental shift in politics in Seattle. I think this model is open to whoever wants to follow it.
Jason Bennett, one of Mallahan's top political consultants, had a very different answer:
The thing that wasn’t really talked about was the impact of Dow Constantine and everybody pushing the “Oh, shit” button on him and pushing a great liberal, left, Seattle group out [to vote]. Referendum 71 [which Bennett also worked on] and [Initiative] 1033—we had to win those, and there was a great effort to mobilize that effort and that impacted the mayor’s race… When liberals are activated and they push the “oh shit” button, they rally together, and I think McGinn sort of benefited from that and I do think that’s replicable. I hope that’s replicable. … When liberals and progressives unite, they can make a big impact on a campaign. I hope that that’s the lesson learned.
When we know more about who is more correct—Broadhead with his "Seattle political math has changed" theory, or Bennett with his "Oh, shit" button theory—we will be able to say a lot about the likely direction of this city's politics over the next decade.
1
Geez, can't they both be correct? I've been around here nearly 40 years and active in (or at least paying keen attention to) local politics all the while.
Yes, the electorate evolves over time; old voters die; some huge percentage of the City's population has been here fewer than 5 years; people who choose to live in the city as opposed to the 'burbs are more liberal/progressive (pick your term).
And yes, R-71 and I-1033 and Suzie H. (not Dow per se; any of the other D contenders could've done as well had the primary turned out differently) were huge motivating factors as well.
Let's just call it the perfect political storm.
Yes, the electorate evolves over time; old voters die; some huge percentage of the City's population has been here fewer than 5 years; people who choose to live in the city as opposed to the 'burbs are more liberal/progressive (pick your term).
And yes, R-71 and I-1033 and Suzie H. (not Dow per se; any of the other D contenders could've done as well had the primary turned out differently) were huge motivating factors as well.
Let's just call it the perfect political storm.
2
@ Citizen R: Sure, both can be somewhat correct, and probably are, but I highly doubt that they're both equally correct.
That's why I wrote "When we know more about who is more correct..."
Depending on who proves to be the most correct, future political consultants (and candidates) may be able to take good advantage the dynamic(s) that were so helpful this time.
That's why I wrote "When we know more about who is more correct..."
Depending on who proves to be the most correct, future political consultants (and candidates) may be able to take good advantage the dynamic(s) that were so helpful this time.
3
Did he seriously evoke "Web 2.0"? He's a douchebag. Mallahan gets called out on his business jargon, but McGinn's people don't?
There is no revolution. McGinn is absolutely NOT a new type of anything; he's a guy who ran a decent campaign and won. For one thing, he hasn't given any real indication of what he's actually going to DO as mayor, besides an ocean of talk about "listening to the people" which is frankly a load of self-serving tosh. I don't WANT a mayor who gets his ideas from goddamn town hall meetings; I want a mayor who can run city departments.
If this was really new political math, there would be a corresponding new representation in other areas of city government. Who is McGinn's natural coalition on the council, for instance? Presumably he'll have an ally as Police Chief, since he's going to pick him or her. But what happens when McGinn has his first conflict with the real government, the civil servants (and union members)?
There is no revolution. McGinn is absolutely NOT a new type of anything; he's a guy who ran a decent campaign and won. For one thing, he hasn't given any real indication of what he's actually going to DO as mayor, besides an ocean of talk about "listening to the people" which is frankly a load of self-serving tosh. I don't WANT a mayor who gets his ideas from goddamn town hall meetings; I want a mayor who can run city departments.
If this was really new political math, there would be a corresponding new representation in other areas of city government. Who is McGinn's natural coalition on the council, for instance? Presumably he'll have an ally as Police Chief, since he's going to pick him or her. But what happens when McGinn has his first conflict with the real government, the civil servants (and union members)?
4
WELL, all the guru stuff in the would is not as important as ..
1. Nickels lost.
2. Ed didn't do the write in
and
3. The choice was duh or duuh - thus the low spread.
Mc Ginn got lucky, and Mallahan blew it.
The lesson, there are ten prominent city political leaders kicking themselves cause they didn't file.
Ally, Bim, Sim, Lina, and many more..... are glum, cause, oh, they could have won so easily.
Eli, give up the guru thing for this one ... NO NEW lessons. Just blah blah and more blah blah.
1. Nickels lost.
2. Ed didn't do the write in
and
3. The choice was duh or duuh - thus the low spread.
Mc Ginn got lucky, and Mallahan blew it.
The lesson, there are ten prominent city political leaders kicking themselves cause they didn't file.
Ally, Bim, Sim, Lina, and many more..... are glum, cause, oh, they could have won so easily.
Eli, give up the guru thing for this one ... NO NEW lessons. Just blah blah and more blah blah.
6
It's like I and many other people have said:
Seattle is BACK.
You can waste time pretending that isn't the case, or you can adapt to the new reality, but we are and you'd better get used to it.
Never use conventional political warfare tactics against a guerrilla political insurgency that operates outside your sight lines.
Seattle is BACK.
You can waste time pretending that isn't the case, or you can adapt to the new reality, but we are and you'd better get used to it.
Never use conventional political warfare tactics against a guerrilla political insurgency that operates outside your sight lines.
8
I want to get Will and Fnarf drunk at the same time and lock them in a camera-filled room together.
That's definitely a sextape waiting to happen.
That's definitely a sextape waiting to happen.
11
I think the lesson here is...
if you're an unpopular incumbent mayor running for reelection, don't put your own unpopular bag-fee ballot issue on the same ballot as your own election.
if you're an unpopular incumbent mayor running for reelection, don't put your own unpopular bag-fee ballot issue on the same ballot as your own election.
12
It's a safe bet that there will be moonbat schemes like I-1033 and R-71 on future ballots. It's not like these people learn from their losses. If anything, they circle the wagons tighter and roll out even more reactionary ideas. Look at how confident they are following Palin and Beck and abandoning the mainstream. Smart Republicans will advise these fucks that they are doing nothing but activating liberals, but they won't listen. Tim Eyman doesn't listen to GOP strategists, any more than Sarah Palin does.
These morons are a huge gift to the left and they aren't going anywhere. And that is going to be a factor in the math for the next decade at least.
These morons are a huge gift to the left and they aren't going anywhere. And that is going to be a factor in the math for the next decade at least.
13
Jason Bennett: When liberals and progressives unite, they can make a big impact on a campaign.
I had to sit through an endorsements meeting where in the course of a few minutes Joe Mallahan must have used the phrase "progressive values" five times--without articulating what those "progressive values" were. But hey, it turns out his own campaign adviser didn't even buy it that his candidate was a progressive.
I had to sit through an endorsements meeting where in the course of a few minutes Joe Mallahan must have used the phrase "progressive values" five times--without articulating what those "progressive values" were. But hey, it turns out his own campaign adviser didn't even buy it that his candidate was a progressive.
14
Eh, two useless candidates, one who ran an especially uninspired campaign, and another of eked out a victory. Not sure there is a lesson there except that no matter how boring your candidate is, money and endorsements are worth 47% of the vote.
15
It does change the landscape. However, it is not a new watershed but a creeping sinkhole.
My worry is that the forthcoming collapse will sour everyone to both grassroots and community activists.
I know a lot of folks get all warm and fuzzy about these on going Town Halls but they are really a red flag.
1 the guy who spent half year running did not listen enough to hear what needs to be done.
2 the guy who said elect me I am ready to lead starts by randomly asking people "Hey, what should we do and how should we do it?"
While McGinn did run a good campaign, it was luck that made him Mayor.
My worry is that the forthcoming collapse will sour everyone to both grassroots and community activists.
I know a lot of folks get all warm and fuzzy about these on going Town Halls but they are really a red flag.
1 the guy who spent half year running did not listen enough to hear what needs to be done.
2 the guy who said elect me I am ready to lead starts by randomly asking people "Hey, what should we do and how should we do it?"
While McGinn did run a good campaign, it was luck that made him Mayor.
16
The shift? College educated white liberals. Bye bye working class and minorities; besides the housing levy crums and adopted black kids, white progressives really don't give a shit about having u in this city.
18
the real issue is double digit unemployment and housing values tanked. incumbents lost all across the country, greg nickels was a victim of that. two unknowns somehow sneak in. voters confused from extremely weak candidates who would have lost to a write in candidate.
no big message here. except mcginn is now in charge of 11,000 employees and your property tax bills.....and unfortunately is showing that he is not up to the job by his transition to date.
no big message here. except mcginn is now in charge of 11,000 employees and your property tax bills.....and unfortunately is showing that he is not up to the job by his transition to date.
19
FNARF = correct.
I don't what has gotten into people about McGinn.
Let's remember that Nickels barely lost; and with another 1% of the vote in the primary (a piddling 3,000 people?) he would be Mayor.
McGinn won but also by a small margin and against a guy who really was over his head.
Moreover, McGinn hasn't done anything yet or even indicated with specificity what he will do. He seems to have backed-off on the major issue of the day: the tunnel.
Don't get so excited.
I don't what has gotten into people about McGinn.
Let's remember that Nickels barely lost; and with another 1% of the vote in the primary (a piddling 3,000 people?) he would be Mayor.
McGinn won but also by a small margin and against a guy who really was over his head.
Moreover, McGinn hasn't done anything yet or even indicated with specificity what he will do. He seems to have backed-off on the major issue of the day: the tunnel.
Don't get so excited.
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