Palienated.

As Will mentioned, Gov. Christine Gregoire spoke last night at a fundraiser for Jeanne Kohl-Welles near Ballard and, during the talk, made a notable declaration.

Below is video I shot of the speech—which also serves as a great primer on the huge budget mess this state is now facing.

"It goes without saying, today has not been my best day," Gregoire began, nodding toward the news of the state's $2.6 billion budget shortfall. "But you know what, I gotta tell ya, If it was ever a time to have a Democratic governor, a Democratic house, and a Democratic senate, now is the time." She promised her proposed budget would be brutal ("It will be nothing like you have ever seen in your life") and then she declared:

An all-cuts budget is not the value of the people of the state of Washington. We must step up to our responsibility to this state and look for revenue to get the job done.

For the declaration, start at 3:37. Or, to learn all about the $2.6 billion shortfall and get up to speed on Gregoire's thinking about how to deal with it, watch the whole damn thing:

At last night's Post-Election Analysis forum sponsored by Senator Jeanne Kohl-Welles, Governor Chris Gregoire announced that, unlike last year, she expects there to be at least some new revenue to soften the expected cuts to balance the $2.6 budget deficit. Political operative Nigel Herbig tweeted this from the event:

At Kohl-Welles event, Gov. Gregoire stated that another cuts-only budget would not be acceptable.

This could be the first sign that the Democratic super majority could show some guts and raise revenue to balance the budget. They might not have a choice, since there is so little left to cut:

70% of the state budget is protected through constitutional, federal, contractual and other mandates, which means the Legislature would need to slash 27% from the remaining $9.6 billion in unprotected spending in order to achieve an all-cuts budget. I suppose that could be done, but only at the expense of great human suffering.

If the legislature leans on a cuts-heavy budget in 2010, General Assistance Unemployable (or GAU) could be toast. According to their website, GAU is described as a "state-funded program that provides cash and medical benefits for persons who are physically and/or mentally incapacitated and unemployable." Since GAU is only available for individuals who don't qualify for other government assistance, without GAU many of these people would be on the street. It survived elimination in last year's budget, largely because Speaker Frank Chopp defended the program.

This is pretty delicious...

I guess the Noblesville, Indiana Going Rogue book signing didn’t go very well yesterday because 300* or so of the 1000 people with wristbands were asked not to tread on Sarah Palin and then she tried to make a getaway with Baby Trig and several duffel bags full of cash but wingnuts have learned to protest about everything these days, so they were having none of it. This is the best thing you will see about horrible, horrible Sarah Palin on the internets all day and until the end of time.

Go to Rumproast to read angry comments left on Sarah Palin's Facebook page by some real disappointed real Americans.

Unbelievable...

Sarah Palin is rolling her "Going Rogue" book tour into Fort Hood, the site of the Nov. 5 shooting that left 13 dead and dozens wounded.

"I'm especially looking forward to meeting our brave men and women in uniform at Fort Hood," Palin, 45, wrote on her Facebook page.

That's Washington state's projected budget deficit for next year. It's going to get ugly in Olympia this winter. And no one could've predicted that the state GOP would take this position:

Republicans warn that going to the tax well now is a bad idea, with the economic recovery still fragile.

When times are bad and budgets are in the red, the GOP says we can't raise taxes because people will suffer. When times are good and budgets are in the black, the GOP says we have to cut the taxes of people who aren't suffering. See how that works? Thank God we've got a Democratic governor and Democratic supermajorities in the legislature! With Dems in charge the state budget won't be balanced on the backs of the most vulnerable and those who are already suffering...

The governor says she's seriously looking at eliminating entire programs to close the budget hole. Cuts may include state subsidized health insurance for the working poor and a welfare program for single adults with mental or physical disabilities.

Jesus—why do we bother electing Democrats at all?

In this week's story about a possible challenge next year to House Speaker Frank Chopp, I wrote:

Progressives have tried to knock off a moderate-leaning incumbent from Seattle before. In 2004, labor unions targeted pro-choice Democrat Helen Sommers in the primary because she failed to halt corporate tax breaks and opposed raising pay for home health-care workers. The challenge fell short; Sommers was easily reelected.

Seeing this, a local labor leader wrote me to point out that while the 2004 challenge did indeed fall short (in the primary), and Sommers was easily reelected (in the general), a closer look at that year's primary results is useful.

In that 2004 primary, labor's candidate, Alice Woldt, very nearly beat Sommers, earning 48.4 percent of the vote to Sommers' 51.6 percent.

This was back before the top-two primary allowed members of the same party to run against each other in the general, so in November of 2004, with Woldt out of the picture, Sommers stomped all over her Republican and Libertarian opponents, earning nearly 79 percent of the vote and easily retaining her seat.

But the key thing to note here is that this was before the top-two primary. If labor's primary challenge to Sommers had taken place this year, she'd have been in the general election with a "surging" Woldt, and it would have been much tougher for her to hang on to her spot in the house.

In other words, the lesson of the challenge against Sommers, applied to today's election rules, cuts both ways. Yes, it's still hard for a Democratic challenger to take down a well-known Democratic incumbent. But thanks to the top-two primary, it's also easier than ever before.

Get into the debate over whether, as commenter West Seattle Walter says...

Frank Chopp will not lose.

...HERE.

The GOP base lines up to meet Sarah Palin in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

People are already swinging at each other (and at me) over my article in this week's Stranger, Swinging at the Speaker, which reports on progressive discontent with Representative Frank Chopp in his home district, Seattle's 43rd—and relays threats from labor to back a lefty Chopp challenger in 2010.

Says commenter wellstonewasright:

"Progressive discontent" against the speaker who has kept the minimum wage the highest in the country and just recently presided over the most significant legislative expansion of gay and lesbian civil rights in the state's history? You have got to be kidding me.

Says commenter shaneleopard:

"His campaign coffers would be filled by Wal-Mart, BIAW, and other corporate entities." That's enough for me. Vote him out. We didn't elect Mallahan in Seattle, we can get this guy out too. It's not nearly as impossible as Chopp's supporters would have you believe. If you ignore the your constituencies and don't do something with the power you have, you deserve to lose it.

Chopp was only able to e-mail a statement about the frustration in the 43rd in time for our paper-edition deadline yesterday. But he was eager to talk about his record, and so last night I met up with him at Vermillion on Capitol Hill for drinks and a long conversation.

More to come on this, but for now, here's five minutes of bar time with Chopp:

Get into the discussion HERE.

This will get interesting:

A group of state lawmakers has endorsed building a wider Montlake interchange and a second north-south Montlake drawbridge as part of their plan to replace the old Highway 520 floating bridge.

But both House Speaker Frank Chopp and Rep. Jamie Pedersen—who represent the 43rd District—voted against the option, saying there state has more time to take input from neighbors to avoid a potential lawsuit. Here's WSDOT's video of the option selected:

Speaker Chopp is rumored to be a big supporter of a key element not included in the selected option: a tunnel under Montlake. Instead, the workgroup recommendation is a more traditional cloverleaf with a similar footprint to what's there now.

Martin Duke over at Seattle Transit Blog also isn't thrilled with the proposal:

This option is bad news for transit in two ways: it doesn’t provide a good connection from SR520 to the UW Light Rail station, and it’s underfunded by $2 billion.

I'm not sure if Option A is worse than the others. The Husky Stadium light rail station will be a brisk walk from SR-520 freeway bus stops no matter which option is chosen. (But wouldn't it be nice if the guys building our freeways were communicating with the guys building our mass transit system?) Also, the 520 bridge plan is at least $2 billion dollars in the hole regardless which plan is chosen. Option A is less expensive. I'm curious to see if Speaker Chopp throws a wild-card design option in there like he did with the viaduct. A 520 bridge with retail built in? I'd like to see that.

• Robert Ullman

House Speaker Frank Chopp has long pissed off progressives with his plodding, centrist ways. Now they're threatening to run a liberal challenger against him in Seattle's 43rd District.

Read about it HERE.

(And come back later today for a post-press-time video interview with the speaker, conducted last night at a bar in the 43rd.)

There's been nothing new posted to Andrew Sullivan's blog this morning. Usually there's a dozen or more posts up by 10 AM. But this just went up:

This is only the second time in its nearly ten-year history that the Dish has gone silent. The reason now is the same as the reason then. When dealing with a delusional fantasist like Sarah Palin, it takes time to absorb and make sense of the various competing narratives that she tells about her life. There are so many fabrications and delusions in the book, mixed in with facts, that just making sense of it—and comparing it with objective reality as we know it, and the subjective reality she has previously provided—is a bewildering task.... There is a possibility here of such a huge scandal that we would be crazy not to take our time either to debunk it or move it forward for further examination. We have only one commitment: to get this right. Please bear with us as we do the best we can.

Fingers crossed.

Fish in a barrel, I know. But the blender of cliches that is Sarah Palin never ceases to amaze. Her thoughts on the Newsweek cover:

The out-of-context Newsweek approach is sexist and oh-so-expected by now. If anyone can learn anything from it: it shows why you shouldn’t judge a book by its cover, gender, or color of skin.

This political art-and-science, much beloved by government and election techno-geeks, is called “redistricting.” Every 10 years, the Constitution requires that our districts be redrawn so they’re of basically equal population — nine U.S. House districts and 49 legislative districts. [...]

The new website describes how a voter-approved, bipartisan commission will do the actual work. Short version: The four legislative caucuses each names a citizen commissioner and the four appoint a non-voting member as chair, such as a law prof or geographer/demographer. Neither side can “jam” the other, since the maps must be approved by at least three of the four voting members. The governor gets no vote and the Legislature must accept the plan up-or-down, with very little room for moving any of the lines.

Even though this commission has good guiding principles—e.g., "Districts should be convenient, contiguous (share a common land border or transportation route), and compact"—the damage is done. This deadlocked little committee can't fix a district that's already been gerrymandered to all hell. I live in the 37th Legislative District (click image to enlarge), which is anything but "convenient, contiguous ... and compact." Granted, there are worse examples of gerrymandering.

PS — There's a re-districting board game!

Lindy West and Christopher Frizzelle are liveblogging Sarah Palin's appearance on Oprah today. Join the discussion below.

After every general election, Senator Jeanne Kohl-Welles (D-36) hosts a forum for political wonks at the Hale's Brewery in Ballard. The panelists have been folks like Dem Chair Dwight Pelz, newly-elected Rep. Reuven Carlyle (D-36), blogger David Goldstein, and state Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown (D-3). My favorite panelist was Lynne K. Varner of the Seattle Times, who argued in a roomfull of hardcore Democrats for fiscal discipline in Olympia after the 2008 election. Or maybe my favorite exchange was when David Goldstein of horsesass.org excoriated a the local elected Dems for not trying hard enough to beat Dan Satterberg in the King County Prosecutor race in 2007. Either way, this years panel is going to be pretty kick-ass:

Jeanne Kohl-Welles, state senator from the 36th District, will host her 16th annual post-election analysis fundraiser from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. on Nov. 19 at Hale’s Ales Brewery and Pub.

Gov. Christine Gregoire, Seattle Mayor-Elect Mike McGinn, King County Executive-Elect Dow Constantine, Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown and House Majority Leader Lynn Kessler will speak on the election results.

It'll be fun to see the Governor publicly meet and greet McGinn, the guy she didn't endorse for mayor. Will McGinn challenge the Governor over the viaduct? I expect McGinn to shy away from the big issue from the campaign and instead focus on 520, transportation mobility, and the state's obligation to Seattle's public schools. I also expect that Gregoire will be the wet blanket for the roomfull of Democrats who will be hot for pledges of new taxes to soften the blow of further budget cuts.

Be afraid...

Liz Cheney says that whoever runs for the White House on the GOP ticket in 2012—and, gee, why not her father?—that person, if he or she wins, "will have to undo a lot of the damage... that this president has done to our national security, to our economy, to our health care system, to our standing around the world." She's referring to the damage done by Barack Obama in 10 months, not the damage done by George W. Bush over eight years. Says Sullivan:

We are nine months into Obama's first term. He inherited two disastrous and failed wars, a recession steeper than any since the Great Depression, countless prisoners of war imprisoned in a gulag in Cuba and largely unprosecutable because of torture illegally authorized by the former president, $5 trillion of debt accrued in eight years by Dick "deficits don't matter" Cheney, alliances frayed to near-collapse, and a total failure in eight years to do anything about climate change. And she actually says that a Republican in 2013 will have to cope with the damage Obama has done to the country! And she talks about America's "standing in the world"! Yes, this is the world she inhabits, a world of shamelessness, cynicism and contempt for this country's stability and health. She is her father's daughter.

Finding a fact.

We didn't have room in this week's issue to name another one of the biggest losers in the 2009 election. So here she is:

• Victoria Renard

Cindi Laws

In the world of campaign managers, there are winners, and there are cougars. Oh, and also cougars who lose elections. For example, Cindi Laws, the veteran campaigner in Seattle wore a leopard-print blouse on election night to the party for her losing candidate, Tom Carr. She’d also managed the campaign for mayoral candidate James Donaldson, who came in fourth place in the primary. Donaldson, a business-minded conservative by Seattle standards, never had a chance with Laws by his side—because she wasn’t even by his side. At a summer meeting of the 34th District Democrats, Donaldson was seeking the group’s endorsement. But when it was time for someone to second Donaldson’s nomination, Laws was gone. Apparently in the hallway having a little chat.

Laws has become increasingly erratic in recent years. In her bid for monorail board in 2005, she blamed Jewish people for opposing the monorail in an endorsement meeting with the King County Labor Council—an endorsement she lost, obviously. This year, Laws left her post as the manager of Pete Holmes's campaign for city attorney (which won big) to work for Carr (who lost with a bang). She campaigned for Carr by attacking Holmes for—allegedly—failing to be a practicing attorney. The accusation prompted the state bar association to issue a document showing that Holmes was indeed a practicing attorney in Washington—and had been for 24 years—thereby erasing doubts about his qualifications, but raising serious concerns about Laws’s grip on reality.

The rest of the losers—and the triumphant winners—are over HERE.

Politico:

The Republican National Committee’s health insurance plan covers elective abortion—a procedure the party’s own platform calls “a fundamental assault on innocent human life.” Federal Election Commission Records show the RNC purchases its insurance from Cigna. Two sales agents for the company said that the RNC’s policy covers elective abortion.

Informed of the coverage, RNC spokeswoman Gail Gitcho told POLITICO that the policy pre-dates the tenure of current RNC Chairman Michael Steele. “The current policy has been in effect since 1991, and we are taking steps to address the issue,” Gitcho said.

How long has a total ban on abortion has been a plank in the GOP platform?