I know that Rob McKenna and other Republicans say I'm a "partisan hack," but I'm determined to prove them wrong. That's why I intend to caucus with Republicans on Saturday, March 3, and cast my vote for Rick Santorum. And I invite all of our readers here on Slog to do the same.

The Washington State Republican Party will choose all of its 40 national delegates via the caucus system this year (you can learn all the details at the Washington State Republican Party Caucus official Tumblr page), a caucus that's open to all registered voters regardless of party preference. And as the only presidential caucus or primary scheduled on that particular slow weekend news day, you can be sure that Washington's caucus will get a fair bit of national attention.

Can your vote really make a difference? Well, in many Seattle precincts, where Republicans are scarce, absolutely. For example, my caucus, along with those of God knows how many other precincts, will be held at Cafe Ibex, delicious Ethiopian fare, but not exactly a huge location. So just a handful of like-minded Santorum supporters could easily flip the precinct in his direction, plus guarantee that some of us enjoy the honor of being selected as delegates to the county convention (possibly my only shot at getting credentialed to an official Republican event).

No, petty, childish machinations like this probably can't cost Mitt Romney the nomination, but it sure is fun trying. So please join me in caucusing for Rick Santorum. Together, we can help turn Washington brown.

I awoke this morning almost expecting to lift the lid on my computer to discover that last night's Santorum sweep was but a beautiful dream.

Don't get me wrong. Rick Santorum is a total freak, and there's no way the GOP establishment is suicidal enough to let him win their party's nomination. But the Republican base is clearly psychotic, and the more they demonstrate how much they hate Mitt Romney, the harder they make it for him to win in November.

There is an argument to make that the extended contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in 2008 helped make the latter a better candidate, while heaping media coverage on the Dems to the detriment of John McCain. But that's not what's going on here. Romney's inability to win in the crucial Midwest—or in caucus states, or in state's where he doesn't flood the airwaves with a shit-ton of advertising—exposes how weak he is. Sure, Romney got a clean victory in Florida, where he outspent his opponents a kajillion to one, but he won't have that sort of monetary advantage in the general, even if the Koch brothers spend a half-billion dollars on his behalf.

In county after county, state after state, Republican primary/caucus turnout is down from 2008, as is Romney's percentage of the vote. Sometimes dramatically. Most Republicans know that his nomination is inevitable, and yet they just can't help but give him the electoral finger. The more they get to know Romney, the less they like him.

Let's be clear: Romney just lost three states, by decisive margins, to fucking Rick Santorum, for chrisakes, a candidate whose vision of America is drawn directly from the pages of The Handmaid's Tale. That can't be good for Republican prospects.

At this late stage, the Republican leadership has no choice but to soldier on, pretending that this is a healthy, constructive process, all the while working behind the scenes to assure that Romney collects as large a delegate advantage as possible. But if you don't think that down-ticket GOPers (like Rob McKenna and John Koster, for example) aren't quaking in their boots at the prospect of crowding on to Romney's tiny, impotent coattails, you don't know squat about electoral politics.

• horsesass.org

Mitt Romney may be consolidating his lead in the Republican presidential primary, but according to Darryl's meta-polling analysis over at HA, that hasn't translated into a leg-up in the head-to-head contest with President Barack Obama. With the latest state polls averaged in, Obama now has 99.6 percent chance of winning, with a mean of 335 electoral votes.

You know, assuming the polling data is accurate, and the election were held today.

As always, you should read the full post, and the methodology FAQ before automatically dismissing these results.

While the rest of the nation was focusing on Mitt Romney's sure thing in Florida (as if there's been any question of the outcome for days), perhaps the more significant election was going on just south of the Washington border, where Oregon's First Congressional District was holding a special election to replace Democratic Rep. David Wu, who stepped down amidst scandal and increasingly erratic behavior.

Republicans, still believing the anger and passion of the Tea Party might sweep them to victory, were hoping for an upset victory in this lean Democratic district, but they didn't come close. In fact, Democrat Suzanne Bonamici is winning in a landslide over Republican Rob Cornilles, 58 percent to 42.

It's dangerous to read too much into these special elections, but there certainly isn't any good news here for Republicans, who saw their candidate decisively defeated in suburban Washington County. District-wide, Cornilles lost to Wu by 13 points when they faced off in 2010—this time around, Cornilles lost by 16 points, running for an open seat. Not exactly a move in the right direction for the bad guys.

Yes, it's an internal poll, and campaigns only release (or leak) their own polls when it serves their interests. But those caveats aside, this poll looks pretty good for Darcy Burner.

Among primary voters who vote for one of the Democratic candidates on the initial ballot, Darcy Burner currently leads the pack with a decisive lead. Burner leads with nearly half of the vote (45%), followed by Laura Ruderman (15%), Steve Hobbs (13%), Suzan DelBene (12%), Roger Goodman (10%), and Darshan Rauniyar (5%).

The poll, based on a random sample of 504 likely 1st CD primary voters, conducted by Lake Research Partners on behalf of the Burner campaign, between January 23-26, has a sampling error of +/- 4.4 percent. It also found that 54 percent of respondents "primary election voters who pick a Democratic candidate in the initial ballot" have a favorable opinion of Burner, while only 9 percent have an unfavorable opinion. So much for the "everybody hates Darcy" meme.

Again, campaigns tend to only release polling results when it's to their advantage. My understanding is that Suzan DelBene's campaign also had a poll in the field in January, and I've got a call in asking if they have different results. No word yet.

As I wrote following last week's candidate forum, it sure looked like the other Dems were running against Burner, as if she were the frontrunner, not DelBene, as has been widely presumed. So perhaps this polling data somewhat explains that dynamic?

By all accounts, Newt Gingrich is about to lose in Florida, and big. So looking back, how did Gingrich manage to pull off such a stunning victory in South Carolina?

In South Carolina, voters said Gingrich spoke to their conservative heart. Romney advisers say the 22-point switch in polls in the state took place after Gingrich's extended tussle with Juan Williams over racial sensitivity. "Williams was a stand-in for Barack Obama in people's minds," said one Romney adviser.

Uh-huh.

First Congressional District voters don't know how lucky they are. No really, they don't.

Tonight, five of the six declared Democrats (plus one intrepid Republican) showed up at Seattle City Hall for a Metropolitan Democratic Club candidate forum, and I'm guessing most 1st CD Dems would have been pretty pleased with the choices before them. That is, if there were any 1st CD Dems in the audience. Of course, no part of Seattle is in the new 1st CD, but the roomful of 7th and 9th CD Dems came away pretty impressed with field, which included Democrats Darcy Burner, Suzan DelBene, Roger Goodman, Darshan Rauniyar, and Laura Ruderman, plus Republican James Watkins.

I'll follow up with a more detailed report tomorrow after I've gotten some sleep and met a more pressing deadline, but apart from the fact that all of the candidates should be pleased with their performances tonight, I want to make one quick observation about the apparent early dynamics of this race.

If DelBene, due to her centrist tendencies and personal wealth is the favorite in the race, you wouldn't know it by the way that Goodman and Ruderman seemed to use their closing statements to draw a contrast between themselves and Burner. Both focused on their experience in government, and both emphasized their ability to work across the aisle and across partisan lines. Even DelBene warned against the sort of "hyper-partisanship" for which Burner is sometimes criticized.

Perhaps they've seen polling data that I haven't, or perhaps I'm reading something into it that wasn't there, but it sure looked like the other Dems were positioning themselves against Burner.

Squeezed into a loud bar, feebly attempting to out-duel Cienna with live-Slog witticisms, it was hard to get a good feel for President Obama's State of the Union speech last night. But US Representative Jim McDermott (D-The Part of Seattle I Don't Live In), sitting (and often standing) in the House chamber, got a firsthand look at the president in battle mode, and he came away quite impressed.

"Obama was a monster tonight," McDermott told me by phone about an hour after the speech. "By far and away, this was the best speech I've ever heard him give." Really.

No doubt McDermott is as partisan as they come, and he can be prone to fits of enthusiasm, but this was about as bubbly and effusive as I've ever heard him. Throughout the interview, McDermott literally giggled with delight at the thought of taking on Mitt Romney as the nominee, let alone his old foe Newt Gingrich. "They're trying not look scared," McDermott said of his Republican colleagues, "but they're looking at an unmitigated disaster."

By challenging congress to act on a series of popular, economically populist policy initiatives, McDermott says Obama has put the Republican leadership between a rock (the Tea Party Caucus) and hard place (Nancy Pelosi). "He's like the captain of the Costa Concordia," says McDermott of Speaker John Boehner: "He can either steer clear of the rocks, or stay on course and watch his ship roll over on its side."

As for the specifics of Obama's proposals, McDermott could have personally done without the stuff about off-shore drilling, but was philosophical about the president's need to appeal to the nation as a whole. "Some proposals I like, and some are not at the top of my list," McDermott admits.

"But I think the middle class loved that speech," says McDermott. And it's the middle class, after all, who is going to determine the outcome of this election.

So, let me get this straight. South Carolina, a hotbed of Republican conservatism, is about to nominate a serial adulterer Freddie Mac lobbyist for president?

The American Research Group poll, conducted Thursday and Friday, shows Gingrich leading Romney by a 40%-26% margin. ARG's last poll, released Thursday, showed a virtual tie with Gingrich at 33% and Romney at 32%.

Wow. I guess Romney really did get his ass kicked in that last debate.

I'd be a little more excited about the prospect of a Gingrich victory today if I actually thought he had a chance of winning the nomination. But I don't. Gingrich is an asshole. Besides, unless there's some big Super PAC money dumped into this race on Gingrich's behalf—maybe nine figures—I just don't see how Gingrich has the money or the organization to compete once these primaries start coming fast and furious.

So personally, I'd rather just get the Republican nomination process over with, so that Romney stops getting all this free media.

• HorsesAss.org

Over at HA, Darryl is running his election year meta polling analysis again, and with a few more state polls published, President Barack Obama continues to hold a 77.5 percent probability of defeating likely Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a head to head contest.

Of course, you know, if the election were held today (which it's not), and the data out is only as good as the data in, and all those other caveats. But Darryl was freakishly accurate in projecting the final delegate count in 2008 (he failed to account for Nebraska splitting its delegates), so it's a useful snapshot that will help us track voter sentiment over time. Dis it all you want in the comment thread, but you might want to read the methodology FAQ before presuming he's an idiot or a liar.

(Oh... and in case you're wondering about bias, Darryl's latest analysis of the Washington governor's race shows Republican Rob McKenna with a 71.5 percent probability of winning.)

Democracy for America (DFA), the nationwide, grassroots progressive organization that grew out of Howard Dean's insurgent 2004 presidential campaign, announced its first five congressional endorsements today, and lookie who made the cut:

Ilya Sheyman - IL-10
Joe Miklosi - CO-06
Eric Griego - NM-01
Mary Jo Kilroy - OH-03, and
Darcy Burner - WA-01

This doesn't come as much of a surprise, as DFA had previously endorsed Darcy Burner during her two previous House runs, but it should be noted that fellow Democrat Laura Ruderman, also running in the 1st, had also been endorsed by DFA during her unsuccessful run for Secretary of State in 2004. Not this time.

How important is DFA's endorsement? On its own, not that much, though with over a million members, it can certainly help drive a bunch of small individual contributions into Burner's coffers. But I think this endorsement speaks to a larger strength that Burner has that should help close some of the money advantage that self-funder Suzan DelBene brings to the table. Many of the grassroots progressive groups whose endorsement Burner will earn, are the type of groups who are not shy about picking early favorites from a crowded primary field. But the more establishment Democratic groups—the types that typically gravitate toward more centrist candidates like Ruderman and DelBene—they aren't as likely to get in early, for fear of pissing off the ultimately winner.

Come September and October, the usual suspects will dump buckets of dollars into this race, regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination. But it's the early money that will help determine who will be the beneficiary of all this late campaign cash.

Remember how the national press kept fawning over Mitt Romney's historic sweep of both Iowa and New Hampshire, making him the first Republican to win both those two contests ever? Oops...

Rick Santorum’s campaign claimed a belated victory in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday morning after certified results from the contest showed him leading Mitt Romney by 34 votes, a reversal from the eight-vote edge for Mr. Romney on caucus night.

Of course he did. But since the only thing really up for grabs in the Iowa caucuses was the immediate perception of victory, Romney remains the real winner.

Seattle tax attorney Andrew Hughes, who announced this morning that he was bowing out of the crowded Democratic race in Washington's 1st Congressional District, is reportedly asking donors for their input on challenging long time incumbent Representative Jim McDermott in the largely Seattle-based 7th CD.

A source tells me that Hughes is pitching a "four-year plan," in which he runs and loses in 2012, to set himself up as the frontrunner in 2014, should the 75-year-old McDermott choose to retire. Uh-huh.

I've called Hughes to ask for comment, and have not yet heard back.

In a press release, Seattle tax attorney Andrew Hughes announced today that he was suspending his campaign for the newly redrawn 1st Congressional District seat being vacated by Representative Jay Inslee. Andrew Who?

“Despite the generous support and encouragement of so many, it’s clear the new district lines have fully removed us from the new First District. As such, I have decided to look for other ways to serve my community while working to make sure that a Democrat secures this now highly competitive seat. Continuing in this race would only further split the Democratic vote and open the door to a GOP-only general election, which we must avoid at all costs,“ said Hughes.

Yeah, well, first of all, it's not clear that Hughes lived anywhere near the anticipated district lines. His FEC report lists an Edmonds office address, now drawn into the 7th CD, but there's no evidence of Hughes being registered to vote there. Hughes Facebook page says he lives in Seattle, where he appears to have last voted in November, 2010.

Second, I don't think that Hughes continued presence in the race "would only further split the Democratic vote." Hughes, a political newcomer, liked to boast about the $141,000 he'd raised, but according to his last FEC report, $57,219.33 of that was his own money... coincidentally, almost exactly the amount of cash on hand left in his campaign coffers. Compare that to fellow unknown, Darshan Rauniyar, who reported $110,000 raised, only $600, from himself, and more than $99,000 cash on hand.

So no, I don't think Suzan DelBene, Darcy Burner, Laura Ruderman, Roger Goodman, Steve Hobbs and Rauniyar are breathing a collective sigh of relief at Hughes departure. Well, maybe Rauniyar.

So, the game is on. As Eli reported, Department of Revenue director Suzan DelBene—who lost a close race to Republican Representative Dave Reichert in 2010 in Washington's 8th Congressional District—has officially thrown her hat into the ring in the crowded race to replace Representative Jay Inslee in the newly redrawn, and extremely swing 1st Congressional District. Her Democratic opponents include state Representative Roger Goodman, state Senator Steve Hobbs, former state representative Laura Ruderman, and progressive organizer Darcy Burner, who lost two close races to Reichert in 2006 and 2008.

It's probably fair to say that DelBene's entrance instantly makes her the consensus favorite to win the Democratic nomination. DelBene is a smart, likable, centrist candidate, but more importantly she's got money, and there's nothing establishment types of either party like better than a self-funder. In 2010, DelBene put $2.2 million of her (and her husband's) own money into her campaign, out of her total $4 million raised, only to lose by about 14,000 votes, or roughly 4 percent. Had she ponied up another million dollars she might have won. Had she put in a million less, the final tally likely wouldn't have been nearly as close.

It's DelBene's presumed money advantage, plus her more centrist demeanor, that leads many political insiders to consider her the nominal Democratic favorite. DelBene is simply going to be able to spend more in the primary than her rivals. And according to a recent study from the Progressive Politics Institute, she's going to need it:

1. Moderate Democrats and their opponents spent more than twice as much on their campaigns in 2010 as their counterparts in liberal districts.


2. Moderate candidates were much more likely to draw outside spending in their districts.


3. “Safer” moderate members still pay a premium.

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First it was reported that Seattle City Council member Bruce Harrell was considering challenging Democratic incumbent US Representative Adam Smith for the redrawn "majority-minority" 9th Congressional District. Then Smith told us that he had spoken with Harrell, and that it was all a "misunderstanding."

But over the weekend, Harrell's niece and campaign manager, Monisha Harrell, responded that it's Smith who was doing all the misunderstanding:

"With all due respect to Adam Smith, he does not speak for Bruce Harrell," Monisha wrote via email. "Bruce has not ruled out a consideration for running in the 9th, but did tell Adam that he would sit down with him first to discuss policy differences and give Adam an opportunity to discuss those differences before issuing a challenge. I know Adam Smith hopes to earn Bruce’s support, but that hasn’t happened yet."

Late yesterday, the Seattle Times reported that Bruce Harrell, the only majority-minority member of Seattle's majority-majority city council, was mulling a challenge to US Rep. Adam Smith in Washington's new majority-minority 9th Congressional District. Well, according to Smith—who visited The Stranger's offices today—apparently not.

"It was a misunderstanding," according to Smith, who says he talked to Harrell this morning. Neither Harrell nor "top pundit" Eli Sanders were available for comment.

A day after new congressional redistricting maps showed him well outside the district, state Rep. Marko Liias has emailed supporters announcing he is withdrawing from the race to replace Rep. Jay Inslee.

"Some have suggested that I move to this new district and run anyway," Liias wrote supporters, "but that is not who I am."

Liias's hometown of Edmonds is now tucked inside Rep. Jim McDermott's newly redrawn 7th CD. I wouldn't be surprised to see Liias, one of the more liberal members of the state House, run for that seat when the 75-year-old McDermott eventually retires.

It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the field shakes out over the coming months. The new 1st CD is less Democratic than originally expected, and geographically huge. It's gonna take a lot of hard work to run this race right. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple more hopefuls drop out well in advance of the primary, and possibly one more—current Department of Revenue director Suzan DelBene—jump in.

The bipartisan Washington State Redistricting Commission released today what (with perhaps minor modifications) will be the final boundaries for our state's 10 congressional districts, and despite official praise from the state Democratic party, my initial reaction is that the Republicans came out on top.

Five districts lean Democratic, four Republican, and one—the newly rejiggered 1st CD—looks to be a 50-50 swing district. That pretty much sucks for Dems in a state that hasn't elected a Republican governor since 1980.

How'd this happen? Well it looks like the Democratic members of the commission fought for and won a dubiously useful "majority-minority district" in the 9th, and a specially drawn "Denny Heck district" in the new 10th, with Republicans getting most of what they wanted in exchange. Ah well... Democratic politicians have never been all that good at playing politics.

Of particular note:

7th and 9th CDs: In an effort to turn the 9th into that mythical "majority-minority" district, Southeast Seattle has been peeled away from the 7th, and joined with Bellevue, Mercer Island, Renton, Kent, Tukwila, Seatac, Federal Way, and a bit of Tacoma (which is also shared by the 6th and 10th). But of course since the largest minority group by far in the district will be white people, and few of the other minority groups have a lot in common, I'd wager 9th CD Rep. Adam Smith is feeling pretty good about his chances of retaining his seat.

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