Apparently, the auto industry is not seeing the writing on the wall:
The world will reach “Peak Car” — a point at which annual global sales growth will top out — in the next decade, several auto-industry analysts predict. Researcher IHS Automotive, for one, sees annual sales cresting at 100 million within that time.Indeed, the business plans of the very companies that turned a huge section of America into the environmental nightmare of sprawl. But what worked for the US in the century of growth is not going to work at a global scale.
Peak Car is at odds with the ambitious expansion plans of global automakers, which IHS says are gearing up to produce more than 120 million vehicles by 2016 — almost 50 percent more than last year’s worldwide sales mark of 82 million. The dynamic also threatens the business plans of parts producers, suppliers of raw material and oil companies.
When it comes to culture, you must also think of the idea in biology called punctuated equalibrium. Meaning, for a major cultural shift to happen, it must happen very rapidly. There is no such thing as gradual cultural change. There are, true, rumblings, there are signs—but when it is time, it is time.
No one is predicting that car sales will suddenly fall off or that today’s car companies are now dinosaurs. What the experts do see is a reckoning for car companies, which may have to adapt to a world with less car-buying and more car-sharing, more cars that drive themselves and fewer hot rodders on the highway