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Friday, November 8, 2013

Sawant Surges in Latest Ballot Drop, SeaTac Prop 1 Bleeding Slows

Posted by on Fri, Nov 8, 2013 at 9:23 PM

Socialist Alternative challenger Kshama Sawant won a dominating 58.44 percent of the 8,591 ballots added in tonight's 8:30 p.m. drop, more than halving four-term incumbent Seattle City Council member Richard Conlin's earlier 2,691 vote lead. Conlin now leads by a mere 1,237 votes and a 50.31 to 49.49 percent margin, a stunning reversal from his 6,136 vote, 7.5 point election night margin.

According to King County Elections, 216,226 ballots have been received in Seattle, and 176,836 have already been counted (151,399 in this race); only 84.08 percent of the ballots counted in tonight's drop included votes in the Conlin/Sawant race. Figuring that 1.5 percent of ballots will not be counted due to signature and other problems, I figure that ((216,226-176,836)*.985)*.8408 ((216,226*.985)-176,836)*.8408 equals 32,622 30,392 ballots left to count in the race. Give or take. Sawant would now need slightly more than 51.9 52.04 percent of the remaining vote take the lead. Considering that she has cumulatively won 53.5 percent of the ballots counted since post-election night, it is hard not to project Sawant ultimately winning.

Meanwhile down in SeaTac, the $15 an hour minimum wage Proposition 1 has slowed its bleeding. The "no" vote won 56 percent of tonight's 100 ballot drop, down from 59 percent of the previous drop and 63 percent of the drop before that. Prop 1 won now leads by a mere 43 vote, 50.43 to 49.57 margin. Still, with about 1,000 ballots left to count, the numbers don't look great for Prop 1.

Thanks to the three-day holiday weekend, these are the last results we'll see until 4:30 p.m. Tuesday. But if I were a Conlin staffer, I'd take advantage of the break to start spiffing up my resumé.

UPDATE: One more intriguing observation. While we've all been busy tracking the Conlin/Sawant and SeaTac Prop 1 contests, the "yes" vote on Seattle Prop 1 (public campaign finances) has been quietly but steadily closing the gap. On election night, Seattle Prop 1 was losing by a 7,112 vote, 45.89 to 54.11 percent margin. After tonight's count it is losing by a 3,889, 48.78 to 51.22 percent margin. By my calculations (which I won't go into here), Prop 1 would need to win more than 55.74 percent of the remaining ballots to win. It won 55.68 percent of tonight's batch. So while it's unlikely, given the swings we've seen in the contests above, it's not beyond the realm of the possible.

UPDATE: An error in my calculations led to a slightly inflated estimate of the number of ballots left to be counted—I've updated the the post accordingly.

 

Comments (41) RSS

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1
Amazing.
Well a lot of people voted for Sawant (but assuming that she didn't have a chance) to "shake up the Council" and they may get their wish.
Posted by David Sucher on November 8, 2013 at 9:35 PM · Report this
2

No doubt the radiator will speak once the powers that be figure out which way the wind is blowing. Ask Rossi.
Posted by Charles Hawtrey on November 8, 2013 at 9:39 PM · Report this
3
it is hard not to project Sawant ultimately winning.

Unless, for some reason, ballots start to head more towards Conlin's favor (like the first 98,000 counted). Nobody promised they'd be counted in any particular order.
Posted by ChefJoe on November 8, 2013 at 9:41 PM · Report this
4
Fuck. Worst local election in a long time. Hard to see anything I like except for the expected victories (like O'Brien).
Posted by Ross on November 8, 2013 at 9:41 PM · Report this
5
Time for mcginn to move to capitol hill and knock her out in 2015.
Posted by Seattle14 on November 8, 2013 at 9:43 PM · Report this
DOUG. 6
@3: Early voters tend to be older. Conlin's toast.
Posted by DOUG. http://www.dougsvotersguide.com on November 8, 2013 at 9:46 PM · Report this
Goldy 7
@3 You are wrong. Ballots are largely counted in a particular order: first in, first out. The Election night count consists largely of every ballot that arrived by the Friday before, plus some of those that arrive on Monday. The Wednesday drops consist of the remainder of Monday, plus some of Tuesday. And so on.

As we get near the end of the count and some earlier ballots that required remediation are added to the mix, the late ballot trend (if there is one) diminishes.

So why would late ballots differ from earlier ones? Younger voters vote late. Also, GOTV campaigns. And sometimes, elections simply have momentum. But at this point in the count, we are definitely seeing a huge difference between late voters and early voters in several key races. That's not random.
Posted by Goldy on November 8, 2013 at 9:56 PM · Report this
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn 8
Three more long days of nasty, racist, red baiting snark. Thanks, veterans. I hope you're happy.
Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn http://youtu.be/zu-akdyxpUc on November 8, 2013 at 9:57 PM · Report this
9
#6: Fuck you, you asshole. You told everybody McGinn was going to win.
Posted by tired of bulllshit on November 8, 2013 at 10:02 PM · Report this
SchmuckyTheCat 10
@Goldie, the Yes on 522 folks were thinking they had a chance with late ballots. Update on that?
Posted by SchmuckyTheCat on November 8, 2013 at 10:04 PM · Report this
11
Goldy, I believe the "Ballots Returned" number at KCE is the number of ballots that have passed the first stage of processing, so there are more ballots that have arrived from USPS but aren't showing up in that number yet. KCE is still predicting 55% turnout and the Ballots Returned number suggests less than 53%.

So Sawant and Seattle Prop 1 may be doing better than your numbers suggest.
Posted by Jeff in Ballard on November 8, 2013 at 10:27 PM · Report this
leek 12
Looks like there's about a 69k gap left for 522, with ~148k ballots left to count. I don't know what the trend is, but it seems highly unlikely that that gap could be made up.

http://vote.wa.gov/results/current/State…

http://vote.wa.gov/results/current/Turno…
Posted by leek on November 8, 2013 at 10:36 PM · Report this
13
Younger voters vote late.

And are certainly against $15/hr wages in SeaTac ?

Nobody is denying that there's a general order to how things are processed, accepted, and then counted. Ballots coming in Tuesday probably don't jump to the head of the line and get scanned that day. But I've never heard of a rule that "that stack of 10,000 ballots we couldn't get to last night has to be the first batch into the machine this morning". Or, "yep, we really do have to start re-making those ballots filled out with green pen that we'd set aside" can throw off the order.

But, hey, maybe I'm just having flashbacks to Rossi vs Greogoire or how McGinn's surge reversed course by 1.5% during the last count of the primary.
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archive…
Posted by ChefJoe on November 8, 2013 at 10:41 PM · Report this
Goldy 14
@10 I haven't been tracking it (tracking statewide races are much more complicated, because you have adjust for where the ballots remaining are coming from), but it just doesn't look possible.
Posted by Goldy on November 8, 2013 at 10:45 PM · Report this
15
Good for Sawant. This is probably her only shot at a council seat as the Districts will work against her, and running against someone who isn't colins (i.e. a 4 term old white guy) would also work against her. But it would be interesting to see what would happen if she got elected.
Posted by j2patter on November 8, 2013 at 11:47 PM · Report this
TomJohnsonJr 16
Councilmember-most-likely-elect Sawant, I didn't vote for you, but I'd be a liar to say I wasn't looking forward to council meetings with you!
Posted by TomJohnsonJr on November 9, 2013 at 12:02 AM · Report this
17
@15: just curious, are you dyslexic or just exceptionally bad at names? The dude's name is Conlin and in every post I've seen of yours you refer to him as Colin or Colins. WTF?
Posted by gnossos on November 9, 2013 at 12:39 AM · Report this
seatackled 18
@17

Or just typing angrily.
Posted by seatackled on November 9, 2013 at 12:50 AM · Report this
Matt from Denver 19
@ 13, Murray's count dropped 2 full percentage points at yhe same time, giving McGinn a net gain of .5% for that final drop. So I don't think you're helping yourself citing that post. And Rossi lost as Gregoire's numbers increased with each drop in 2004, so that also doesn't help you much either.
Posted by Matt from Denver on November 9, 2013 at 3:29 AM · Report this
Pridge Wessea 20
@19 - Then again, when has he ever let facts get in the way of his narrative?
Posted by Pridge Wessea on November 9, 2013 at 6:16 AM · Report this
21
@19, well, as long as we get the high drama of Conlin winning, a recount with Conlin winning, that count being challenged by the socialist party, Conlin winning again, and then another recount with Sawant winning. All the while every recount comes up with different totals. That would be super fun to see what they've done to change ballot handling procedures since 2004.
Posted by ChefJoe on November 9, 2013 at 6:49 AM · Report this
22
@19,
How would Goldy's margins work if the later ballots had Sawant down about 2% while Write-Ins went up to 1.2%, like the last count of the primary ?
Posted by ChefJoe on November 9, 2013 at 6:55 AM · Report this
Matt from Denver 23
I don't know, chief. How would Goldy's margins work if the later ballots had Sawant down about 2% while Write-Ins went up to 1.2%, like the last count of the primary ?
Posted by Matt from Denver on November 9, 2013 at 7:34 AM · Report this
24
For example, Matt, If the votes for this race end up in the low 170,000 range, 10,000 voes for Sawant, 8,900 votes for Conlin, and a write-in surge of 250 votes would still give Conlin a win in a squeaker using Sawant-leading percentages like those seen Wed-Thursday afternoon.

You can be optimistic for your candidate, but let's not oversell the statistics.
Posted by ChefJoe on November 9, 2013 at 8:02 AM · Report this
25

Kshama is the new quinoa.
Posted by Joe Carroll on November 9, 2013 at 8:29 AM · Report this
Pridge Wessea 26
You can be optimistic for your candidate, but let's not oversell the statistics.

This is what people should've been saying to Conlin on election night.
Posted by Pridge Wessea on November 9, 2013 at 8:41 AM · Report this
27
@17, I guess just bad at names, for some reason I thought it was colins, thanks for pointing that out.
Posted by j2patter on November 9, 2013 at 8:44 AM · Report this
MrBaker 28
Which one will lose to Jamie Pedersen in 2015, the tension is thrilling.
Posted by MrBaker http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ on November 9, 2013 at 8:44 AM · Report this
MrBaker 29
The late GOTV effort by those meddling Sonicsgate kids will help. Conlin shouldn't have voted no, and shouldn't have been condescending about it.
Posted by MrBaker http://manywordsforrain.blogspot.com/ on November 9, 2013 at 8:50 AM · Report this
BLUE 30
"To what degree do our personal opinions cloud our judgement? Yale University researchers have attempted to detect and measure how our political beliefs affect our ability to make rational decisions. The study suggests that our ability to do maths plummets when we are looking at data which clashes with our worldview."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/mor…
Posted by BLUE on November 9, 2013 at 9:41 AM · Report this
31
This happened two years ago in the Seattle School Board with the race between Peter Maier and Sharon Peaslee. He was winning election night but every day it ticking away from him and to her. She won the race.

Also, side note but funny - the Suzanne Dale Estey campaign that, between her campaign and her PAC, raised over $200k? Her campaign is asking supporters for another $3k "to close the campaign debt." Wow.
Posted by westello on November 9, 2013 at 10:07 AM · Report this
Will in Seattle 32
Remember - kingcounty.gov/elections/ has a ballot tracker - make sure your vote was counted!
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on November 9, 2013 at 11:08 AM · Report this
Original Andrew 33
"Oh yeah, well one plus two, plus one, plus one, plus two plus one, plus one, plus one!"
Posted by Original Andrew on November 9, 2013 at 11:10 AM · Report this
Pridge Wessea 34
@33 - "Flames, flames, on the side of my face..."
Posted by Pridge Wessea on November 9, 2013 at 11:31 AM · Report this
35
I love how the vote counters will take three days off even though they haven't finished their job. Expect more of that kind of efficiency if your socialist wins.
Posted by Sugartit on November 9, 2013 at 1:44 PM · Report this
Goldy 36
Geez, guys, don't you check my math? I had an error in my formula, and none of you caught it. What's the use of having a comment thread if you guys can't occasionally make me look stupid?
Posted by Goldy on November 9, 2013 at 2:05 PM · Report this
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn 37
@34

Efficiency is counting the ballots in a calm and orderly way using the staffing you have, and finishing the job during regular work hours.

Inefficiency would be declaring a phony emergency, hiring a buttload of temp workers and buying additional equipment for the sole purpose of feeding an imaginary sense of urgency. King County has better things to spend the taxpayer's money on than ramrodding vote counts through any faster than need be. They don't even get sworn in until January. The only point would be to satisfy about two dozen obsessive politics wonks. The other two million people in King County don't give a shit.

This has been yet another explanation of How Shit Works for People Who Think They Know What Socialism Is.
Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn http://youtu.be/zu-akdyxpUc on November 9, 2013 at 2:13 PM · Report this
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn 38
Gosh, I forgot about the main reason our vote count system is the best: it gave Dino Rossi a big sad. Three times.

And counting ballots posmarked by midnight on Election Day gives all conservatives a big sad, year in, year out. Liberals procrastinate. Washington's system fakes out right wingers again and again. Take your blood pressure meds, guys.
Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn http://youtu.be/zu-akdyxpUc on November 9, 2013 at 2:34 PM · Report this
39
@37
Good analysis.
Though I think it's 3 dozen politics wonks.
Posted by David Sucher on November 9, 2013 at 7:00 PM · Report this
Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn 40
@37

Hey, I think they deleted a comment and renumbered them. I was responding to what is now 34, not 35.
Posted by Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn http://youtu.be/zu-akdyxpUc on November 9, 2013 at 7:55 PM · Report this
41
It'll be sad if the Sea-Tac initiative fails.
Posted by Mark776 http://www.chirohosting.com/sites.php on November 9, 2013 at 10:12 PM · Report this

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