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Tuesday, August 6, 2013

What To Expect When You're Electing: August 2013 Primary Edition

Posted by on Tue, Aug 6, 2013 at 4:32 PM

King County Elections projects that it will release the tabulation of about 230,000 ballots at 8:15 p.m. tonight. That's about 19 percent of registered voters, and about 58 percent of the projected final countywide turnout of 33 percent.

Keep those numbers in mind when looking at tonight's results. That's a big enough statistical sample to reliably determine the top-two in most races. But late ballots do sometimes trend differently than early ballots, so tonight's results might well leave the second spot too close to call in the mayor's race (and conceivably, the contest between Kshama Sawant and Brian Carver to take on Richard Conlin in November).

My guess is that Ed Murray and Mike McGinn make it through the primary tonight, but if things go particularly poorly for the mayor, it will more likely be a long and painful week than quick and merciful death. But that's just an informed guess.

 

Comments (14) RSS

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Will in Seattle 1
In a surprise upset the silent majority is voting for Charlie Staadaker and Kate Martin.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on August 6, 2013 at 4:59 PM · Report this
Ziggity 2
@1: too bad you're not part of the silent majority HEYOOOOOOH!

*holds up a hand for a Slog high-five*
*waits*
Posted by Ziggity on August 6, 2013 at 5:08 PM · Report this
MacCrocodile 3
@2 - slap.
Posted by MacCrocodile http://maccrocodile.com/ on August 6, 2013 at 5:20 PM · Report this
Fnarf 4
@2, smack.

My McGinn vote is going to be a late count. I didn't get it in until noon today. That's assuming they count it at all -- they have refused to accept my signature three times since 2008.
Posted by Fnarf http://www.facebook.com/fnarf on August 6, 2013 at 5:28 PM · Report this
Pridge Wessea 5
@2 - up high bro.
Posted by Pridge Wessea on August 6, 2013 at 5:37 PM · Report this
SchmuckyTheCat 6
@4, we need an initiative to force the state to accept something besides signatures. Signatures aren't and shouldn't be used as ID alone. I hardly ever write anymore, never had nice "penmanship", and my signatures never match on the ballot either.

I'd be ok with putting a four digit PIN on my ballot that only me and the elections people knew. The county elections folks answer is that I can have two other people (non-validated whatsoever) sign for me. Uh?
Posted by SchmuckyTheCat on August 6, 2013 at 5:57 PM · Report this
TomJohnsonJr 7
I didn't get my ballot in until the evening pickup. When push came to shove I found myself voting for Murray. I guess the mayor's SPD consent decree stalling really got to me. Fully cognizant I've just asked for a new guy to be disappointed by, but that's the deal.
Posted by TomJohnsonJr on August 6, 2013 at 6:14 PM · Report this
8
@6 -- I don't think they reject it, I think they just ask you to verify that it is your ballot. I guess you could get the opposite (a ballot that you didn't sign) but the nice thing about our system is that there literally is a paper trail. That is so much better than most states, where you really have no idea, and have to trust the system (which, in a worse case scenario is based on private, proprietary software).
Posted by Ross on August 6, 2013 at 6:38 PM · Report this
9
A paper trail that gets scanned by people (who misplace ballots sometimes) shoving them into computers that read the results via proprietary software ? I don't recall any recounts ever coming to exactly the same numbers and I don't believe that recounts are done manually.
Posted by ChefJoe on August 6, 2013 at 7:29 PM · Report this
SchmuckyTheCat 10
@8 I've done it enough times. You have to send back new signature forms or show up in person with ID. It's ridiculous.
Posted by SchmuckyTheCat on August 6, 2013 at 8:10 PM · Report this
11
@7 Did I miss where Murray said he would crack down on the SPD? I don't get the feeling that is important to the people who are paying his bills.

Since there is quite a bit of resentment about the SPD, it wouldn't surprise me if Mcginn's final opponent thinks about going down this road, but what are they going to offer as an alternative, a more robust committee?
Posted by cracked on August 6, 2013 at 8:34 PM · Report this
12
@9 -- They are manual if it is close enough. The last statewide race that was close enough was the 2004 Governor's race. Gregoire won after three recounts (two automated and one manual). I would imagine we've had lots of smaller races that ended up going to a recount, but I don't know of any off hand.

As far as losing ballots are concerned, you can check to see if your ballot was counted by checking with the Secretary of State's office.

Basically, we have the best electoral system in the country. Get used to it.
Posted by Ross on August 6, 2013 at 8:40 PM · Report this
13
late to the thread, but big Slog high-five and a woot woot to @2.

Went by Mike O'Brien's house, saw Will there, turned around and went back home.
Posted by gnossos on August 6, 2013 at 8:54 PM · Report this
14
The problem of comparing the upcoming November election to 2009 is that in 2009 you essentially had a choice of who? vs. never heard of him.

McGinn is a known entity, as is Murray. They both have records to run on and campaign against. More votes from this primary may go towards McGinn, but the November election is not going to be a hige turnout event, even with the Strangers pushing strongly for McGinn.

The irony of the two candidates (at least to me) is that the gay candidate is seen as the safe, establishment backed choice.
Posted by ProstSeattle on August 6, 2013 at 10:14 PM · Report this

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