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Friday, April 26, 2013

Which Will Be the Next State to Legalize Gay Marriage?

Posted by on Fri, Apr 26, 2013 at 11:27 AM

Now that Rhode Island has become the 10th state to legalize gay marriage, the AP (by way of the Sacramento Bee) provides a useful look at the next same-sex marriage battleground states: Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Oregon. Who will be number 11*?

* Please remember that Slog polls are 100% scientifically accurate at all times, and because of that accuracy, you are not allowed to use Slog polls for wagering, as they will give you an unfair advantage in office pools and on InTrade.


Comments (19) RSS

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Will in Seattle 1
I voted Oregon for both.

Because, do overs.
Posted by Will in Seattle on April 26, 2013 at 11:36 AM · Report this
Dr. Z 2
It's not official in Rhode Island yet, but - YAY!
Posted by Dr. Z on April 26, 2013 at 11:36 AM · Report this
Granny Smith 3
Oregon is crazy, crazy conservative.
Posted by Granny Smith on April 26, 2013 at 11:39 AM · Report this
gladcow 4
did you see the newest news about Oregon?…|breaking|text|Home
Posted by gladcow on April 26, 2013 at 11:44 AM · Report this
It won't be New Jersey. Not as long as Christie's in office and he has his eyes on the prize.

On the other hand, CPAC has already publicly shunned Christie, so he may just have a moment when he thinks, "What the fuck do I have to lose?"
Posted by Clayton on April 26, 2013 at 11:46 AM · Report this
Gurldoggie 6
I'm still waiting for Utah. Won't be long.
Posted by Gurldoggie on April 26, 2013 at 11:55 AM · Report this
MacCrocodile 7
Washington should just keep adding the same law to the books over and over again.
Posted by MacCrocodile on April 26, 2013 at 12:00 PM · Report this
Dr. Z 8
@3: no actually we're not - we faced a series of antigay initiatives from 1988- 2004 and beat most of them. In 2004 we were considered the one state where we might be able to beat a mini-DOMA initiative but the national tide was just too strong. Southern and eastern Oregon are pretty conservative but there's not a single Republican holding a statewide office now, and Democrats hold the governorship and both houses of the state Legislature. The OCA really destroyed the state Republican party.
Posted by Dr. Z on April 26, 2013 at 12:05 PM · Report this
I'm voting for New Jersey.

Remember Maurice Williamson's joking about the "gay onslaught" one of his constituents was warning about? Well, that was a pretty funny moment in his speech, but there's a little bit to the idea that things move in waves. As people realize that the state next door already adopted marriage equality and absolutely nothing bad happened, it has a tendency to dispel whatever fears and uncertainties the "anti-" crowd expounds upon. Familiarity breeds, "Oh, so what's the big deal?"

Look at the map. All of New England now, plus New York. Can the rest of the Mid-Atlantic states be far behind? (Well, I mean, besides West Virginia. That will always be far behind.)

It took a few years after Massachusetts for surrounding states to start accepting the idea. I think that's going to be true for Washington influencing Oregon, too.

Of course, it also depends what happens to that California Prop 8 case at the Supreme Court. They could always just kick it back down to the 9th Circuit on that issue of "standing," whether the Prop-8 sponsors had any right to appeal the District Court ruling. Of course, in that case, it could just end up validating marriage equality in California, or some permutation might let stand the 9th Circuit decision, which would legalize it from Hawaii to Nevada and Montana to Alaska. Oh, and Guam, too.
Posted by Brooklyn Reader on April 26, 2013 at 12:07 PM · Report this
The problem with Oregon is that marriage is prohibited in its Constitution...less easy to fix. But doable.
Posted by oregonmarriage on April 26, 2013 at 12:39 PM · Report this
Simply Me 11
1) Delaware via the legislature in 2013
2) Illinois via the legislature in 2013
3) Minnesota via the legislature in 2013
4) New Jersey (via veto override which they have until 2014 to complete, or another Supreme Court challenge if that fails)
5) Oregon via an expensive ballot campaign.
Posted by Simply Me on April 26, 2013 at 12:43 PM · Report this
I'm really saddened by how slow things are going here?

Posted by AndyInChicago on April 26, 2013 at 12:48 PM · Report this
gladcow 13
10 - Oregon's constitutional amendment via measure 36 was just ruled unconstitutional by the ninth circuit court.…|breaking|text|Home
Posted by gladcow on April 26, 2013 at 1:09 PM · Report this
pfffter 14
@13 No. Not exactly. He issued an opinion that it is unconstitutional without actually striking down the law.
Posted by pfffter on April 26, 2013 at 1:15 PM · Report this
ERIN! 15
Voted for MN. Not sure I actually believe it, but I've got to have faith in my home state.
Posted by ERIN! on April 26, 2013 at 1:17 PM · Report this
Reverse Polarity 16
I don't think Minnesota. Yes, they just voted down a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage... barely. But that doesn't mean they're ready to embrace it yet either. It is actually polling slightly behind in the last poll I saw. So that seems the least likely state on the list to me.

Delaware and Illinois both seem poised to pass it in their legislatures, with relatively decent popular support. Those two seem like the most likely.

Oregon is polling ahead, but it doesn't look like their legislature is willing to touch it. Are they ready to try another initiative? Who knows.

Christie won't sign it, despite its public support, so New Jersey doesn't seem likely any time soon.
Posted by Reverse Polarity on April 26, 2013 at 2:29 PM · Report this
Tacoma Traveler 17
Oregon first. OR is not that different from WA, where popular support for GLBT equality is so high that we passed the first-in-the-nation marriage legalization referendum. Lon Mabon is long gone. The state supreme court struck down the marriage ban, and Portland is now flooded with crunchy Lefty hipsters. Eugene is a progressive haven.

Delaware is a state which is all business. Having lived there, I can tell you that the state's population is more impressed with your business acumen and leadership skills than they are with theocratic dogma. What you can produce is what matters, not who you fall in love with. MD is far more conservative than DE, and MD legalized it by ballot initiative.

After that, it's either IL or NJ
Posted by Tacoma Traveler on April 26, 2013 at 5:35 PM · Report this
It won't be Oregon first because the ballot measure can't even be considered until next year. Delaware seems like pretty much a done deal at this point. Then I think Illinois will be next.

I'd love to have voted for my home state, Minnesota, but I just can't. It'll come, but I think that supporters of marriage equality (myself included) may have oversold the "this won't make same sex marriage legal it just won't put it in the state constitution" angle. Many marriage equality opponents feel betrayed that this is in the legislature already and will work even harder against it. I wish Minnesota had marriage equality first out of everyone ever, but I think the political process has been mismanaged.
Posted by mnlibrarian on April 26, 2013 at 7:54 PM · Report this
1. Delaware
2. California
3. Illinois
4. Minnesota
5. New Jersey
6. Oregon
Posted by kentonrick on May 7, 2013 at 4:31 AM · Report this

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