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News & ArtsFriday, March 22, 2013
Politics / Economy What Do These Two Maps Say About Each Other?
Posted by Goldy on Fri, Mar 22, 2013 at 9:57 AM
- Washington State Secretary of State's Office
- Washington State Employment Security Department
Say what you want about us crazy, market-hating, urban liberals, and our jobs-destroying socialist agenda, but a quick comparison of voting patterns in Washington's 2012 gubernatorial race and county-by-county jobless rates sure does seem to chalk up an economic win for liberalism. It's not a perfect match; there are a couple of outliers. But for the most part there's a fairly strong correlation between unemployment and Republicanism. Huh.
And the unemployment map above actually understates the disparity between red and blue counties. These are January numbers. The February numbers show unemployment falling to 5.9 percent in the Seattle/Bellevue/Everett metro area, while rising two-tenths of a point to 8.7 percent in the rest of the state. (The county-by-county numbers won't be released until next week, so I'm using the previous month's map.)
Seattle goes ahead and does something economically suicidal like mandating paid sick leave, and rather than businesses fleeing the city, both jobs and construction cranes continue to pop up like weeds. Weird.
1
now, goldy, compare what the state of washington's return on federal tax dollars is each year, to what the state of new jersey receives each year, with the same population.
2
Strange too that union membership is higher blue counties, and unionized workers receive higher pay and better benefits. Is it possible that Ayn Rand and Ludwig von Mises, were wrong?
5
Maybe the unemployed wanted to vote out the party in power because the status quo wasn't working for them?
8
Sure, why don't you go ahead and correlate average temperature by county with unemployment while you're at it.
9
@3 Or perhaps that the rural unemployed don't understand economics, and are thus voting against their own economic interests? Makes you think.
10
Coastal populations throughout the world are generally richer, and have been for centuries, regardless of politics.
11
9: will you look at that again and please stfu. omfg dude, please..those people are suffering dummy. (dude, and tell sherm i called him a big pussy..)
12
@9- YOU CAN'T MAKE ME THINK!
Anyway, I'm from a rural area and part of the problem is that the majority of intelligent ambitious people move to the cities.
Anyway, I'm from a rural area and part of the problem is that the majority of intelligent ambitious people move to the cities.
13
I go back to rural washington every year, and you bet your sweet ass that almost everyone I know there is conservative. All the smart ones left a long time ago, and those that are left work in local government (all the punk rock kids are now cops!?!?) or are working sub-contacting companies at Hanford. Oh, and the most conservative one manages a farm. Hates the federal gov, needs them to just go away, except for the 30k farm subsidy check that they get every year. They put that money twords the reloading bench and the car racing team.
I really think that the high unemployment rates out there have to do with the flight of the educated. If you're smart and you can earn, chances are your going to want to get the fuck out of the shitty little town you grew up in. Those that are scared, stupid or angry stay behind, can't find a job, and blame those that were able to do what they were not for their lot in life.
I really think that the high unemployment rates out there have to do with the flight of the educated. If you're smart and you can earn, chances are your going to want to get the fuck out of the shitty little town you grew up in. Those that are scared, stupid or angry stay behind, can't find a job, and blame those that were able to do what they were not for their lot in life.
14
Face it, those tax-subsidized Takers in the "conservative" areas are big on blaming others, and short on actually investing in their community.
Results matter.
Will the last suburbanite or rural leech leaving Washington please remember to turn off their energy-wasting old inefficient incandescent light bulbs, until we replace them with efficient green LED lights like we efficient job-creating urbanites use?
Results matter.
Will the last suburbanite or rural leech leaving Washington please remember to turn off their energy-wasting old inefficient incandescent light bulbs, until we replace them with efficient green LED lights like we efficient job-creating urbanites use?
15
@13 I think that people's political beliefs are based more on their sense of cultural identity than on logic or rational inquiry. This is more true of conservatives.
16
I actually see a lot of outliers and I'm not sure without a statistical analysis if your superficial conclusions are correct.
Jefferson, Grays Harbor, and Pacific counties all have high unemployment (>9%) but voted for Inslee. Counties at or under 9% include Island, Kitsap, Whitman, Walla Walla, and Asotin, all of which voted for the other guy.
Urban density explains most of this (but not the low unemployment in SE Washington), but not everything. It's not about liberal policies, as much as I would like it to be. There's a lot more going on than that. Something makes (even more rural parts of) Western Washington comparatively liberal, and (even more urban parts of) Eastern Washington more conservative.)
Jefferson, Grays Harbor, and Pacific counties all have high unemployment (>9%) but voted for Inslee. Counties at or under 9% include Island, Kitsap, Whitman, Walla Walla, and Asotin, all of which voted for the other guy.
Urban density explains most of this (but not the low unemployment in SE Washington), but not everything. It's not about liberal policies, as much as I would like it to be. There's a lot more going on than that. Something makes (even more rural parts of) Western Washington comparatively liberal, and (even more urban parts of) Eastern Washington more conservative.)
18
This could be further complicated (and thus, more interesting) if one were to consider other markers.
One could be union membership (or union approval ratings), which would explain the coastal counties' consistent support for Democrats.
Also... per-capita membership in evangelical Protestant sects - which might explain Vantucky, Spokanistan, and elsewhere.
One could be union membership (or union approval ratings), which would explain the coastal counties' consistent support for Democrats.
Also... per-capita membership in evangelical Protestant sects - which might explain Vantucky, Spokanistan, and elsewhere.
19
@9: Or, as exemplified by your reply, urban liberals assume that the rural population is not as smart, giving underserved creedence to the Repubican meme about the elitism of "establishment liberals. How about not wearing the shoe, and see if some red cunties turn blue? Sometimes Democrats are their own worst enemy, Goldy.
21
@16 Well, Whitman County is the most obviously outlier, and it's low unemployment is easily explained in that its largest employer is WSU. Of course, it isn't as overwhelmingly Republican as most of the rest of the eastern counties are either.
22
The correlation of Inslee's percentage of the vote with population density is much stronger than unemployment.
24
Welcome to rural Washington:
Barry McGuire & John York - Kent
Kentlake Performing Arts Center
Kent, WA
"Barry McGuire & John York - Kent
Dick Clark once said "When world events collide with Rock & Roll you get Barry McGuire". Barry, most famous for his "Green, Green" and "The Eve of Destruction" performs with John York who formerly played with The Byrds. "Trippin' the 60s is a memorable ride down memory lane that will have your tapping your toes and singing along."
http://www.brownpapertickets.com/event/3…
Barry McGuire & John York - Kent
Kentlake Performing Arts Center
Kent, WA
"Barry McGuire & John York - Kent
Dick Clark once said "When world events collide with Rock & Roll you get Barry McGuire". Barry, most famous for his "Green, Green" and "The Eve of Destruction" performs with John York who formerly played with The Byrds. "Trippin' the 60s is a memorable ride down memory lane that will have your tapping your toes and singing along."
http://www.brownpapertickets.com/event/3…
27
Nice try Goldy.
But what it clearly shows is that the Dumbocrat leaders of the state are systematically impoverishing and discriminating against people who are politically different from them.
Looks like we need a little "Social Justice" up in here...
But what it clearly shows is that the Dumbocrat leaders of the state are systematically impoverishing and discriminating against people who are politically different from them.
Looks like we need a little "Social Justice" up in here...
28
Oh yeah, don't forget...
Part-time employment counts a person over 16 as being employed. This is yet another collateral damage that Obamacare will cause.
...A bunch of half-employed people, being half as productive, making half as much.
Way to go Dumbocrats! You are SO smart. A true win for economic lib-rhul-izm.
Part-time employment counts a person over 16 as being employed. This is yet another collateral damage that Obamacare will cause.
...A bunch of half-employed people, being half as productive, making half as much.
Way to go Dumbocrats! You are SO smart. A true win for economic lib-rhul-izm.
29
@27 Impoverishing the red counties how? By sending them our money?
Look, we here in the wealthy parts of the state would love to tax ourselves more to pay for basic services and infrastructure for everyone. It's voters in the red part of the state that block us.
Look, we here in the wealthy parts of the state would love to tax ourselves more to pay for basic services and infrastructure for everyone. It's voters in the red part of the state that block us.
30
It says what my parents have proven - bigotry and fear motivate Republicans to vote against their own interests.
31
I think comparing the two maps along with the context of the article strongly indicate a correlation between ideology and message.
Not saying I disagree with the ideology or the message, but I think it's somewhat insulting if the author expects a critical reader to agree on the basis of the maps.
I'm certain there are better sets of data to justify the author's position.
Not saying I disagree with the ideology or the message, but I think it's somewhat insulting if the author expects a critical reader to agree on the basis of the maps.
I'm certain there are better sets of data to justify the author's position.
32
This illustrates the fact that the Republicans thought they would win the gov race because the economy was in trouble, while the Democrats won because the economy was just fine in the vote-rich blue counties.
33
The difference between unemployment and party affiliation as measured by the governors race is not statistically significant:
The mean unemployment for Democratic counties is 9.6%
The standard deviation of unemployment in Democratic counties is 3.5%
Assuming (laziliy) the unemployment numbers sample a normal distribution, the uncertainty in unemployment in Democratic counties is 3.5%/sqrt(N) = 1.2%
The mean unemployment for Republican counties is 10.8%
The standard deviation of unemployment in Republican counties is 2.0%
Assuming (laziliy) the unemployment numbers sample a normal distribution, the uncertainty in unemployment in Republican counties is 2.0%/sqrt(N) = 0.4%
The difference in unemployment between Democratic and Republican counties is 10.8-9.6 = 1.2%
The uncertainty on the difference in unemplyment between democratic and Republican counties is sqrt(0.4^2 + 1.2^2) = 1.3%
Thus, the difference between unemployment between Democratic and Republican counties is not statistically significant (\sigma < 1)
The mean unemployment for Democratic counties is 9.6%
The standard deviation of unemployment in Democratic counties is 3.5%
Assuming (laziliy) the unemployment numbers sample a normal distribution, the uncertainty in unemployment in Democratic counties is 3.5%/sqrt(N) = 1.2%
The mean unemployment for Republican counties is 10.8%
The standard deviation of unemployment in Republican counties is 2.0%
Assuming (laziliy) the unemployment numbers sample a normal distribution, the uncertainty in unemployment in Republican counties is 2.0%/sqrt(N) = 0.4%
The difference in unemployment between Democratic and Republican counties is 10.8-9.6 = 1.2%
The uncertainty on the difference in unemplyment between democratic and Republican counties is sqrt(0.4^2 + 1.2^2) = 1.3%
Thus, the difference between unemployment between Democratic and Republican counties is not statistically significant (\sigma < 1)
34
Thanks lab_rat. Good statistics forensics job there.
Nice try Goldy. Back to the gulag with you. And leave all your money so we can spend it for you.
Nice try Goldy. Back to the gulag with you. And leave all your money so we can spend it for you.
35
@33: Good to see that people still appreciate statistical rigor.
@34: Crawl back under your rock, you care nothing about the process and all about the result.
@34: Crawl back under your rock, you care nothing about the process and all about the result.
36
Thank you @33. This whole thing is just lazy and a cheap shot. I'm a liberal myself, but it the left is just as good as the right at slinging bullshit. You wanna be more credible than the Tea Party? Stop posting this shit.
37
Thank you @33. This whole thing is just lazy and a cheap shot. I'm a liberal myself, and it frustrates the hell out of me when lefties go around slinging bullshit. I've lived in rural, inland NW communities, and I assure their economic problems are much more complex than party affiliation.
You wanna be more credible than the Tea Party? Stop posting disingenuous crap.
You wanna be more credible than the Tea Party? Stop posting disingenuous crap.
38
Scoundrels. This is anti-knowledge. How King County residents voted 4 months ago in a gubernatorial election implies nothing about their economic policies. Without examining what policies (and parameters) lead to lower unemployment, this is just as bad as any right-wing propaganda. The same people who read and accept articles like this are the SAME people - of the same mind - who exclusively watch Fox News. This is just populism - not the critical thought that we need informing our political decisions.
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