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News & ArtsFriday, March 15, 2013
Science An Earthquake the Pacific Northwest Coastline Is Not Prepared For
Posted by Eli Sanders on Fri, Mar 15, 2013 at 6:00 AM
It's the earthquake that will, in many ways, "mirror" the one that devastated Japan in 2011:
More than 10,000 people could die when—not if—a monster earthquake and tsunami occur just off the Pacific Northwest coast, researchers told Oregon legislators Thursday.
Coastal towns would be inundated. Schools, buildings and bridges would collapse, and economic damage could hit $32 billion.
The last time a monster earthquake happened in the Cascadia Subduction Zone was in 1700. Which means, according to the experts, we're "overdue."
5
I thought our death toll would be lower, since our coastal lands are sparsely populated compared to Japan's. I guess a lot of urban buildings would collapse.
6
The geosciences professor I had in college at UW said that it would be the equivalent in Seattle of about a 7.0 magnitude earthquake for 4 straight minutes. At Neah Bay it would be like a 9.0-10.0 for longer. The Nisqually was a 6.8 for 45 seconds.
7
"Overdue" in human terms or geological terms of time? 300 years in geological time isn't overdue or a long time. Could it happen at anytime? Yeah, and it could be later today or 300 years away.
But yeah...hardly earth shaking news.
But yeah...hardly earth shaking news.
13
@11 - sorry - didn't finish. Probably villages buried and people swept out in tsunami. Same as now.
15
And a third of the buoys that would help provide accurate warning aren't working. from Chinook Observer
18
So would it be true that Seattle proper would be more affected by a quake than a tsunami? Clearly we're situated directly over a fault line (under the stadium, IIRC), so a slip there would shake the shit out of us, and Pioneer Square would be a total write off, being built on fill that would liquify instantly.
But would an ocean tsunami be effectively rendered inert by the time it made it through the Strait of San Juan de Fuca, and spread out into Puget Sound? Seems like those geological features would 'deaden' the impact of high water... at least for the cities inside Puget Sound. Forks would be, well, totally forked. Anyone know?
But would an ocean tsunami be effectively rendered inert by the time it made it through the Strait of San Juan de Fuca, and spread out into Puget Sound? Seems like those geological features would 'deaden' the impact of high water... at least for the cities inside Puget Sound. Forks would be, well, totally forked. Anyone know?
19
I am taking a Community Response class now from the Emergency Management folks in Seattle. It is good to be prepared, as if it happens, its all Katrina all the time here for more than likely 10 days. You ready to ride out Katrina? Are your neighbors?
20
@19: yep, got canned food, wood, & a propane grill, and there's lots of raccoons & opossums in the ravine, plus geese at the park.
21
@18 - You're basically correct; the hazard to Seattle from a Cascadia Subduction Zone-generated tsunami is small, especially compared to the outer coast. The relatively narrow, shallow entrances to Puget Sound mean not much wave energy will reach us here.
But the Seattle fault that stretches from near the stadiums to southern Bainbridge Island has generated tsunamis as well, and could do so again:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/PDF/wals27… [pdf]
WA DNR has tons of research-based information:
http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/To…
But the Seattle fault that stretches from near the stadiums to southern Bainbridge Island has generated tsunamis as well, and could do so again:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/PDF/wals27… [pdf]
WA DNR has tons of research-based information:
http://www.dnr.wa.gov/ResearchScience/To…
22
I'm with @19 - Katrina teaches us that no one will be coming to help us for a couple of days. Do you have an earthquake kit at your house, work, car? I do and I'm not sharing. We live in an earthquake zone and it might be worth it to prepare.
23
@18 "So would it be true that Seattle proper would be more affected by a quake than a tsunami? "
From an ocean-generated tsunami, sure.
On the other hand, if you drop enough of Bainbridge (or West Seattle) into the Sound you could actually hit Seattle with a tsunami much bigger than you would get with the equivalent sea-floor generated tsunami. Mind you, this would probably hit a Seattle that had just lost the "integrity" of its crumbling seawall.
From an ocean-generated tsunami, sure.
On the other hand, if you drop enough of Bainbridge (or West Seattle) into the Sound you could actually hit Seattle with a tsunami much bigger than you would get with the equivalent sea-floor generated tsunami. Mind you, this would probably hit a Seattle that had just lost the "integrity" of its crumbling seawall.
24
@14 all the way. It's going to happen, people. Just because it didn't happen yesterday doesn't mean it won't happen tomorrow... or later today. I know people blow it off because it's never happened in their lifetimes, but I am NOT buying property along the coast or on Grey's Harbor and I'm not visiting Long Beach. And I'm not hiking along the coast in Olympic National Park.
And YES, as was pointed out, tsunamis do occur in Puget Sound, like, next to Seattle, for instance, where there's a fault line running under the city and across to the other side of the water. Think about that next time you're on Alki or Discovery Park or along the waterfront. Where's your car again? How far away are the stairs? The nearest tall building?
"Oh, don't worry. It won't happen." Right...
And YES, as was pointed out, tsunamis do occur in Puget Sound, like, next to Seattle, for instance, where there's a fault line running under the city and across to the other side of the water. Think about that next time you're on Alki or Discovery Park or along the waterfront. Where's your car again? How far away are the stairs? The nearest tall building?
"Oh, don't worry. It won't happen." Right...
26
Yet we have people here who constantly complain about money spent on New Orleans and the East Coast because people were too "stupid" to not build their house in the path of a hurricane. I really hope that karma doesn't come and bite them in the ass why I'm their neighbor.
27
@9 Don't forget about a lahar. 150,000 people live on lahar deposits in the Puget Sound, and more would be affected by the flash floods and tsunamis created.
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What @27 said.
We expect between 50,000 and 100,000 dead, if you actually bothered to ask the correct questions of the right people. Most of the survivors will have severe health problems for decades and/or life. We will run out of blood and skin for all the burn victims nationwide within days.
Sorry, you chose to live within sight of an actual live volcano. Or two. Or three.
When it happens - do not get in your car and head for the freeway. Drive UPHILL. If a traffic jam happens RUN or WALK UPHILL. Get to the top of a ridge and go along that. Do NOT stay in the flat plain - you WILL die.
We expect between 50,000 and 100,000 dead, if you actually bothered to ask the correct questions of the right people. Most of the survivors will have severe health problems for decades and/or life. We will run out of blood and skin for all the burn victims nationwide within days.
Sorry, you chose to live within sight of an actual live volcano. Or two. Or three.
When it happens - do not get in your car and head for the freeway. Drive UPHILL. If a traffic jam happens RUN or WALK UPHILL. Get to the top of a ridge and go along that. Do NOT stay in the flat plain - you WILL die.
30
@21 - Thanks shabadoo!
And yeah, chiming in with everyone else who already has food, water & supplies stored: Everyone else, get a kit together this weekend!
And yeah, chiming in with everyone else who already has food, water & supplies stored: Everyone else, get a kit together this weekend!
31
Concentrate on the water and whistle and lights first. You can survive a month without food, but only 3 days without water.
32
Overdue is a fallacy. The science isn't to a state where any reputable expert would say that. You should read Nate Silver's book.
33
@19
Awesome, we defiantly need more people trained in emergency preparedness.
This is good reason to stockpile water, food, medical supplies, and a good semiautomatic carbine with detachable magazines. You may need to shoot Will in Seattle if he doesn't stop blowing that goddam whistle.
Mountain house makes a good 72hour dehydrated food kit. MREs are also a good shelf stable option. Personally I recommend picking up an extra can or two of food every time you go to the store.
You can find military IFAK trauma kits for fairly cheap on EBAY, these are good tier if you have a true emergency, liek someone bleeding out.
Hospitals are typically kept at around 90% capacity, and can only run 72 hours or less on generator power. So do not count on them to be the to help you, likewise police and fire services are going to be tied up and the roads impassable.
A cheap way to stockpile water is to refill plastic juice jugs, or soda bottles. Rotate them every 6 mo.
Also know how to turn the gas off to your house, secondary fires often cause more damage than the initial earthquake.
http://www.pge.com/myhome/edusafety/gase…
Awesome, we defiantly need more people trained in emergency preparedness.
This is good reason to stockpile water, food, medical supplies, and a good semiautomatic carbine with detachable magazines. You may need to shoot Will in Seattle if he doesn't stop blowing that goddam whistle.
Mountain house makes a good 72hour dehydrated food kit. MREs are also a good shelf stable option. Personally I recommend picking up an extra can or two of food every time you go to the store.
You can find military IFAK trauma kits for fairly cheap on EBAY, these are good tier if you have a true emergency, liek someone bleeding out.
Hospitals are typically kept at around 90% capacity, and can only run 72 hours or less on generator power. So do not count on them to be the to help you, likewise police and fire services are going to be tied up and the roads impassable.
A cheap way to stockpile water is to refill plastic juice jugs, or soda bottles. Rotate them every 6 mo.
Also know how to turn the gas off to your house, secondary fires often cause more damage than the initial earthquake.
http://www.pge.com/myhome/edusafety/gase…
34
Nobody was more prepared than Japan when it comes to earthquakes and tsunamis. 10,000 died and thousands will never go home again. The water washed it all away. We are hardly more than ants when it comes to nature.
35
All those new aPODments dwellers will be able to store at least 10 minutes of emergency supplies.
That is one problem with city living - you can't actually have space for storing adequate amounts of dry goods etc in small apartments.
I'm curious as to why there has been no business model evolved to support city dwellers for emergencies. Like rentable retro-fitted public storage lockers with various levels of secured emergency supplies. Huh. Wonder why nobody has done it?
That is one problem with city living - you can't actually have space for storing adequate amounts of dry goods etc in small apartments.
I'm curious as to why there has been no business model evolved to support city dwellers for emergencies. Like rentable retro-fitted public storage lockers with various levels of secured emergency supplies. Huh. Wonder why nobody has done it?
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