Slog
News & ArtsThursday, March 7, 2013
Who's the Boss? McGinn and Sims Tied in Mayor's Race
Posted by Dominic Holden on Thu, Mar 7, 2013 at 3:10 PM
KING 5 commissioned the poll:
SurveyUSA asked 647 registered voters asked which candidate they would vote for in the primary election. The responses included former King County Executive Ron Sims, who has not declared for the race.
Undecided – 34 percent
Mike McGinn – 15 percent
Ron Sims – 15 percent
Tim Burgess – 10 percent
Bruce Harrelll – 5 percent
David Ishii – 0 percent
Kate Martin – 3 percent
Ed Murray – 9 percent
Charlie Staadecker – 1 percent
Peter Steinbrueck – 7 percent
Discuss.
3
And in the fine print... the margin of error was an impressive 10.2%!! What was the sample size, 16? This "poll" is meaningless.
7
@3 "The margin of error was 3.9 percent."
The 10.2% was for the second question asked only the 96 Ron Sims supporters.
The 10.2% was for the second question asked only the 96 Ron Sims supporters.
8
Now that Mayor Mike has firmly aligned himself with the SPD AGAINST meaningful reform, he's off my list. I dunno who it's going to be, but it's not going to be him.
11
@6-- I totally marked your words! And then I scrolled down and some totally DIFFERENT words were marked so I marked your words again and now I have Sharpie all over my screen and you owe me a new monitor!
Also, this poll is worthless. Ron Sims hasn't declared and 98% of respondents (I totally made that up) couldn't tell you anything about more than two people on that list.
Finally: Poor David Ishii. Whoever that is.
Also, this poll is worthless. Ron Sims hasn't declared and 98% of respondents (I totally made that up) couldn't tell you anything about more than two people on that list.
Finally: Poor David Ishii. Whoever that is.
12
@11, it's a crazy person who is hoping that lots of people will confuse him with the other David Ishii, the beloved (and sadly deceased) former Pioneer Square bookseller.
13
mcginn gets the sonics back, he wins.
and he's got my vote regardless, because he annoys so many people off who deserve it, i.e. every local loudmouth on the radio.
and he's got my vote regardless, because he annoys so many people off who deserve it, i.e. every local loudmouth on the radio.
14
How were these 697 registered voters randomly selected? (if it's based on those who will answer a land-line and take a poll then we know how "random" that sample is (and the 1/sqrt(N) isn't even accurate to that degree))
The other issue is how was the question asked? It's particularly dubious if it ran along the lines of "if you don't support any of those currently declared, what do you think about Ron Sims?"
"Dewey Wins!"
The other issue is how was the question asked? It's particularly dubious if it ran along the lines of "if you don't support any of those currently declared, what do you think about Ron Sims?"
"Dewey Wins!"
15
Wow, amazing what old people who use landlines and people who lie to pollsters on cells think.
Face it, McGinn will win. I know the suburbanites who run the Council don't want to hear that, but he's got our back.
Face it, McGinn will win. I know the suburbanites who run the Council don't want to hear that, but he's got our back.
18
@15 No legitimate polling outfit has used landlines exclusively for years.
Oh, and I remember your hilariously wrong predictions about the tunnel vote. Apparently you've blocked that from your memory.
Oh, and I remember your hilariously wrong predictions about the tunnel vote. Apparently you've blocked that from your memory.
20
Huh.
I can't imagine why Ron Sims would run for Seattle mayor. Is there serious speculation that he will? But then I thought Ed Murray wouldn't run either, and he is. So what do I know.
Of the people currently declared, my vote is for Ed Murray.
I can't imagine why Ron Sims would run for Seattle mayor. Is there serious speculation that he will? But then I thought Ed Murray wouldn't run either, and he is. So what do I know.
Of the people currently declared, my vote is for Ed Murray.
23
McGinn and Steinbrueck are weak and obvious targets for the folks looking to get name recognition by pounding on one or both of them.
24
@14 I took the poll last night; of the all the candidates, only Sims and McGinn had a follow up question (how did I approve of Sims as County Exec, how do I approve of Mcginn as Mayor). Seeing how those two are tied in popularity, who knows how they slapped the results together.
26
@25, because he ran to DC when King County was in trouble, and then got upset because he was a small fish in a big pond and ran back home. He's been talking about his childhood ever since, hoping for a job.
27
Spin it, baby!
Your fuckwad bike nazi hero has 15% support after three and a half years of failure. Fuck him, and fuck you.
Your fuckwad bike nazi hero has 15% support after three and a half years of failure. Fuck him, and fuck you.
28
Oh yeah, something else. That polled measured everyone. But guess what? The people who you and McGinn and the hipsters just hate are much more likely to vote than you are. Which means that, in real life, your fuckwad bike nazi hero has about 10% support.
30
34% were undecided. This poll means very little at this time.
And consider the source of KING 5's analysis: Randy Pepple, a conservative political operative fresh off Rob McKenna's payroll. He probably doesn't like McGinn in the Mayor's office. He might even be acting as an agent.
Also, this poll was conducted via landlines. Only old people have landlines. McGinn has always had an advantage with the youngins.
McGinn's chances are good. If the Sonics deal goes through, his chances are very good.
And consider the source of KING 5's analysis: Randy Pepple, a conservative political operative fresh off Rob McKenna's payroll. He probably doesn't like McGinn in the Mayor's office. He might even be acting as an agent.
Also, this poll was conducted via landlines. Only old people have landlines. McGinn has always had an advantage with the youngins.
McGinn's chances are good. If the Sonics deal goes through, his chances are very good.
31
Seriously, do a poll of who on SLOG under the age of 40 actually answers a call from someone they don't know on their cell.
The number of people who do is very very small.
The number of people who do is very very small.
32
Um, sorry hipsters but 26% of the responses were from cellphones. Not that mere facts matter to any of you.
33
Anyone who'd vote for McGinn is clueless. He's a supposed liberal who opposes reform of a police department that guns down innocent civilians. Give me a break.
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