The Democratic-led Senate delivered a Valentine’s Day victory to gay and lesbian couples today, passing legislation for the first time that would allow same-sex marriage in Illinois.

The gay marriage measure now goes to the House, where the fight is expected to be tougher. Gov. Pat Quinn is expected to sign the bill if it reaches his desk.

It passed by a 34-21 vote with two voting "present." But the Illinois House is more conservative. How tough will it be for this thing to pass the Illinois House, you guys? I poked around real quick looking for a recent breakdown of likely votes, but couldn't find one instantly. Any master analysts of Illinois legislative politics out there?