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Thursday, January 10, 2013

Nate Silver Makes a Prediction: Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl

Posted by on Thu, Jan 10, 2013 at 2:40 PM

He got the election right, but I think he has got this one wrong...

 

Comments (45) RSS

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45
Charles, wanna bet on that? If I win you go to the next genius awards in white face, and I'll drive you there. If you win, well, name your price! Email me, if you still got it. lol.
Posted by scratchmaster joe on January 11, 2013 at 1:01 PM · Report this
44
Fook Nate Silver in his skankhole with a rusty and nailed pipe!

A little while back, Silver the Skankster claimed that "bad models" were the reason for the economic meltdown by the banksters, not the fact that they stole trillions, and that the sleazoids like John Paulson, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, AIG FP swine, Magnetar Capital cretins, Ambac, MBIA, etc., et al., walked away with billions, many, many billions.

Nate Silver is yet another NYT stooge of stooges.....
Posted by sgt_doom on January 11, 2013 at 11:03 AM · Report this
Will in Seattle 43
@40 we don't.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on January 11, 2013 at 9:41 AM · Report this
Martin H. Duke 42
Watching Skip Bayless ask Nate Silver questions makes my eyes bleed. He might as well interview the last Nobel Prize winner for physics about his discoveries.
Posted by Martin H. Duke http://seattletransitblog.com on January 11, 2013 at 7:48 AM · Report this
41
I'm feeling the Broncos on the AFC side: Hell those guys got to the playoffs with an overhyped wishbone QB in Tebo with a good running game and good defense. Now they've got a real all pro QB in Manning who should prevail over a Patriot team with a really good offense but an average defense.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks made it to the super bowl. Russell Wilson's passing accuracy leaves a bit to be desired, but he's developed into a great leader who finds ways to win. With good running from Lynch and solid defense, the Seahawks have a good chance to even prove Silver right.
Posted by neo-realist on January 10, 2013 at 8:14 PM · Report this
Some Old Nobodaddy Logged In 40
@25 So what you're saying is that you have no facts, no understanding, and the only experience is that you've lived in Seattle for two decades. Other than that, it's just a feeling that you've become so used to, it has hardened into reality for you. A reality that has no basis in fact.

Tell me again why people call you an intellectual?
Posted by Some Old Nobodaddy Logged In on January 10, 2013 at 7:38 PM · Report this
DOUG. 39
@35: It was actually a Game 5 when Mutumbo swatted the Sonics out of the first round. And don't forget, that "dynasty" Yankees team lost to the Diamondbacks in the 2001 World Series.
Posted by DOUG. http://www.dougsvotersguide.com on January 10, 2013 at 7:32 PM · Report this
38
@15 Lambeau's mystique died with global warming.
Packers have been 3-3 at home in the playoffs since 2000.

Two of those wins were over the Seahawks.
Posted by dirge on January 10, 2013 at 7:14 PM · Report this
37
@32 That's not odds either. That's a probability.

Posted by dirge on January 10, 2013 at 7:03 PM · Report this
36
Tom Brady + No Giants = Super Bowl Victory.

Sorry, Seahawks. You do have more fans this year, however.
Posted by tedwardma on January 10, 2013 at 6:45 PM · Report this
35
@34 Wasn't that the Sonics team that was up three games to one on Dikembe Mutombo's Denver Nuggets and ended up losing the series, with Game 7 in Seattle? And did we really, deep down, think the 116-win Seattle Mariners would beat the dynasty Yankees?

And what about the Super Bowl Seahawks? A good game, all in all, but two or three big plays did them in.

I don't like the Seahawks (_there!_) and I don't like the Patriots - I actually don't really like any team left, other than the Niners - so I'm hoping Nate's wrong, but Seahawks-Patriots is actually pretty realistic. I'm hoping Broncos or Ravens against the Niners, but all my teams are gone.
Posted by floater on January 10, 2013 at 6:44 PM · Report this
DOUG. 34
Chuck@25: Seattle teams don't choke when expectations are low ('92-'93 Sonics and '95 Mariners), only when they're high ('93-'94 Sonics and '01 Mariners). There were no expectations for the 2012 Seahawks.
Posted by DOUG. http://www.dougsvotersguide.com on January 10, 2013 at 6:07 PM · Report this
33
The odds of the Seahawks beating the Falcons AND the Packers on the road are long. After all, now they'll have to face quarterbacks with two good legs.
Posted by bigyaz on January 10, 2013 at 5:07 PM · Report this
Fifty-Two-Eighty 32
Hey, I'm used to being jumped on by Fnarf after all these years. It's no biggie. I take him a lot less seriously than he takes himself.

Odds? You want odds? Here you go. The 'Hawks have exactly a zero percent chance of surviving their next game. Take it to the bank.
Posted by Fifty-Two-Eighty http://www.nra.org on January 10, 2013 at 5:04 PM · Report this
Mahtli69 31
@25 - It wouldn't be a "choke" because they are an underdog that has already greatly exceeded expectations. Now that they are on the radar, losing next year will be a choke.
Posted by Mahtli69 on January 10, 2013 at 4:51 PM · Report this
Matt from Denver 30
Damn my poor proofreading skills. That first sentence should read, "If you think I indicated that I don't understand odds, you're sadly mistaken."
Posted by Matt from Denver on January 10, 2013 at 4:48 PM · Report this
Matt from Denver 29
@26, if you think I didn't indicate that I don't understand odds, you're sadly mistaken.

Basically, Fnarf, you jumped on 5280 because you just felt like jumping on 5280. That's all good and well, but you didn't do it from a strong position this time.
Posted by Matt from Denver on January 10, 2013 at 4:47 PM · Report this
28
Meanwhile Paul Constant is knitting himself a doily.
Posted by Don Johnson on January 10, 2013 at 4:44 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 27
Seahawks for the SuperBowl win!

I call evens if Fnarf is calling odds.

@25 nah, that was then, this is now.
Posted by Will in Seattle http://www.facebook.com/WillSeattle on January 10, 2013 at 4:24 PM · Report this
Fnarf 26
@17, looks like nobody here understands odds. Or Nate Silver.

Odds doesn't mean it's a lock. It just means it's a probability. In politics or sports, same difference.

If you are interpreting Silver as saying "the Seahawks and the Patriots are definitely going to the Super Bowl", you're nuts.

Can "anything happen"? Duh. Double, triple duh. Saying "anything can happen" is a non-statement, it's like saying "some weather we're having, huh?"

Yes, it's true that the primary determinant in any single sporting event is random chance. But that is not the same thing as saying that every probability is 50-50, which is what 5280 was saying. The statement "anything can happen" would also be true if the Seahawks were playing Nathan Hale High School -- but the odds would be rather different.

After all, the odds in the slots aren't too bad -- maybe 90-95% return. People do win. "Anything can happen". It's still a stupid bet.
Posted by Fnarf http://www.facebook.com/fnarf on January 10, 2013 at 4:23 PM · Report this
Charles Mudede 25
dudes, the choke is going to happen. i have more faith in the choke than anything else. i have lived in this city for 20 years. the choke has never let me down. not once.
Posted by Charles Mudede on January 10, 2013 at 4:18 PM · Report this
ryjan 24
Waiting for Paul to say something Snarky about this.
Posted by ryjan on January 10, 2013 at 4:14 PM · Report this
23
Nate Silver might be wrong, but if you're going to bet against him, be sure to get long odds.
Posted by Brooklyn Reader on January 10, 2013 at 4:12 PM · Report this
Hernandez 22
Wow, sorry for all the spelling errors.
Posted by Hernandez http://hernandezlist.blogspot.com on January 10, 2013 at 4:10 PM · Report this
Fifty-Two-Eighty 21
Hmm. Looks to me like Fnarf just proved himself to be a fool.

Oh well. It's not the first time.
Posted by Fifty-Two-Eighty http://www.nra.org on January 10, 2013 at 4:10 PM · Report this
r.chops 20
Dick Morris has unskewed the stats and predicts the Cowboys going all the way.

...okay, that wasn't mine.
Posted by r.chops on January 10, 2013 at 4:09 PM · Report this
Hernandez 19
@13 I'm assuming you didn't actually watch the video, and I realize that you have no understanding of the game, but what 5280 wrote is not necessarily incongruent with anything Nate Silver said. There are so many variables in a game where at least 26 people (both teams' players, plus head coaches and coordinators) are acting indepenently and simultanously in over a hundred separate instances per game.

It's different than predicting a political race. A timeout taken a couple of seconds too early or too late could make the marginal difference in a game. Or, a freak injury to a key player on either team could easily change the entire outlook. It would be the electoral prediction equivalent of half the polling stations in Ohio exploding simultaneously without cause or warning.
Posted by Hernandez http://hernandezlist.blogspot.com on January 10, 2013 at 4:09 PM · Report this
danewood 18
@15

Good thing the Giants didn't listen to you last year because they rolled through Green Bay in January.
Posted by danewood on January 10, 2013 at 4:00 PM · Report this
Matt from Denver 17
@ 13, odds or not, @ 3 is right - in the postseason, anything can happen.
Posted by Matt from Denver on January 10, 2013 at 3:55 PM · Report this
Gern Blanston 16
Now I'm curious to hear Charles Mudede's pigskin picks. In fact, that would be an excellent idea for a regular column.
Posted by Gern Blanston on January 10, 2013 at 3:53 PM · Report this
Max Solomon 15
Broncos-Packers.

Seahawks, I love you, but you have 1 path to the Superbowl - pray that SF beats the Packers (which they won't), win at ATL, win at SF. Lambeau in January is the end of the road for every team in the NFC.
Posted by Max Solomon on January 10, 2013 at 3:52 PM · Report this
Reverse Polarity 14
I'm in love with Nate Silver's mind.

But really, he can't really be gay with hair like that, right? I mean, if you commit a great enough fashion faux pas, they revoke your gay card, don't they?
Posted by Reverse Polarity on January 10, 2013 at 3:47 PM · Report this
Fnarf 13
@3, so we can add "odds" to the list of things you don't understand. How much do you piss away into slot machines every year, I wonder? "Anything can happen!"
Posted by Fnarf http://www.facebook.com/fnarf on January 10, 2013 at 3:47 PM · Report this
danewood 12
@7

Because Charles is the Strangers' resident troll.
Posted by danewood on January 10, 2013 at 3:34 PM · Report this
11
Broncs-Seahawks

Stoner on stoner gameplay.
Posted by Supreme Ruler Of The Universe http://_ on January 10, 2013 at 3:34 PM · Report this
fletc3her 10
Seahawks / Nationals in the World Cup or I don't know cricket.
Posted by fletc3her on January 10, 2013 at 3:30 PM · Report this
Rotten666 9
Seahawks Broncos.
Posted by Rotten666 on January 10, 2013 at 3:26 PM · Report this
Some Old Nobodaddy Logged In 8
I'm sure Mr. Mudede could give us all a rousing lecture on how pro-sports teams reflect America's strange relationship w/ capitalism & socialism, but asking him to give valid predictions on football games is.... pointless.
Posted by Some Old Nobodaddy Logged In on January 10, 2013 at 3:10 PM · Report this
7
Good call. The Falcons are overrated and they had an easy schedule and the Hawks have the Niners' number. If the Hawks get the Packers after Atlanta, they should win there. Good call. Why is brother Charles against this call? Hawks have a great chance!
Posted by SeMe on January 10, 2013 at 3:08 PM · Report this
6
Pundits don't like it when you threaten their livelihood.
Posted by dirge on January 10, 2013 at 3:08 PM · Report this
5
Denver v. Seattle Period.
Posted by Rocky Mountain Ben on January 10, 2013 at 3:07 PM · Report this
Jaymz 4
Charles provides no support - Silver at least has some rationale and data to back up his analysis. Most of the sports pundits like the Seahawks quite a bit, and wouldn't be surprised to see Seattle in the big one. It's still too early - Monday will be the day everyone jumps on the bandwagon.
Posted by Jaymz on January 10, 2013 at 3:05 PM · Report this
Fifty-Two-Eighty 3
Meh. Nate Silver or not, fucking anything can happen. Anyone who says differently is a fool.
Posted by Fifty-Two-Eighty http://www.nra.org on January 10, 2013 at 3:04 PM · Report this
Cato the Younger Younger 2
Nate is smarter than Charles. So I am going with Nate
Posted by Cato the Younger Younger on January 10, 2013 at 2:59 PM · Report this
biffp 1
Seahawks are going to win it this year, and Nate Silver knows more about sports than politics.
Posted by biffp on January 10, 2013 at 2:56 PM · Report this

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