Slog

News & Arts

Line Out

Music & the City
at Night

« Win a Pair of Bumbershoot Tickets! | Gold Star Comment of the Day »

Friday, December 21, 2012

Politics Speaking of World-Ending Calamities That Didn't Happen...

Posted by Goldy on Fri, Dec 21, 2012 at 3:56 PM

A year and a half ago, when the 2012 campaign kicked off in earnest, the conventional wisdom was that Republican Rob McKenna had a virtual lock on the governor's mansion. That was the chatter in the press section at McKenna's kickoff, and while I argued that Jay Inslee was a better candidate than my colleagues were giving him credit for, even I thought that McKenna had the edge. Inslee went on to win by almost 100,000 votes, a comfortable margin by Washington gubernatorial standards.

Just something for folks to keep in mind before they write Mayor Mike McGinn's political epitaph.

FacebookShare

Comments (12) RSS

Oldest First Unregistered On Registered On Add a comment

I don't follow the connection between McGinn and Inslee at all. Or the gov's race with the mayor's race. What is your point? How are they similar?

Posted by avocado on December 21, 2012 at 4:11 PM

I still adhere to the narrative that says that Inslee rode the R-74 wave into office.

That, and he's just so darned handsome.

Posted by disintegrator

on December 21, 2012 at 4:23 PM

#1 The connection is that "nobody really knows what is going to happen in politics." It's a good Hail Mary if you need one.

Posted by howie in seattle on December 21, 2012 at 4:47 PM

#3 Tell that to Nate Silver.

Posted by avocado on December 21, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Come on guys, make it 12 people running,

You can do it!

Posted by Will in Seattle

on December 21, 2012 at 8:57 PM

McGinn has the police guild in the bag. That should at least result a few votes from the handful of Guild members who live in the city.

Posted by roddy

on December 21, 2012 at 9:44 PM

The two races are completely different. The Inslee-McKenna race was a two-way partisan contest that depended on people's party membership/identification. The mayors race is a multi-candidate Democratic clusterfuck in which the main issue will be competence--something Mike hasn't demonstrated yet. Mike is unlikely to survive the primary and his three major rivals can likely beat him in a head to head race.

Posted by J.R. on December 22, 2012 at 8:34 AM

7 is correct, and I would add that the governorship was McKenna's to lose; McGinn has, completely on his own, made the Mayor's race his own to just survive the primary.

Posted by Teslick on December 22, 2012 at 9:33 AM

@7 & 8 - folks don't generally understand how McGinn won the first time. He actually copied a lot of Greg Nickles strategy from Nickles first race (which he very, very narrowly won). Nickles (and McGinn) pay attention to voters in South Seattle. They are less concerned with the wealthier neighborhoods surrounding Lake Union. The wealthy districts, and corporate lapdogs of the Seattle Times, have more money. But it's still one vote per person.

Also, remember that the primary is going to involve *three* spineless politicians who lacked the balls to run against Nickles last time - and they are essentially chasing the same votes. McGinn cruises through the primary. Not saying he's going to win again, but anyone paying attention to how you actually win a race has a lot of respect for McGinn. His last campaign was brilliantly managed - he was outspent 10-1 in the primary and 8-1 in the general. Chew on that.

Posted by rtm on December 22, 2012 at 10:26 AM

9: First time contenders have the luxury of not having any record to defend. McGinn, like Nickles, has to explain the last four years, and unlike Nickles, McGinn is now running against some better-known names.

Posted by Teslick on December 22, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Just goes to show that no one reads the Seattle Times and their continual dogging of Inslee and McGinn and their endorsements of opponents. In the general election, the media's constant berating of Obama and explaining all issues with false equivalencies made people mad and Silver correct. It is the voters that count.

Posted by ratcityreprobate on December 22, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I'm not sure being the Police Guild candidate is a good thing right now. I'm sort of positively disposed to McGinn in a bunch of areas, but, if true, that is probably too much for me.

Posted by cracked on December 22, 2012 at 10:12 PM