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Thursday, December 6, 2012

Yes, Seriously: PPP Has Done the First Poll of the 2016 Presidential Race

Posted by on Thu, Dec 6, 2012 at 1:41 PM

We're still weeks away from the inauguration, but here are the results of Public Policy Polling's very first 2016 presidential poll. Republicans first:

PPP's newest national poll finds Marco Rubio as the early choice of Republicans for 2016. 18% would like him to be their nominee to 14% for Chris Christie, 12% for Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 8% for Condoleezza Rice, 7% each for Sarah Palin and Rand Paul, and 4% for Rick Santorum.

And then the Democrats:

On the Democratic side it continues to be no contest. Hillary Clinton leads the way at 61% to 12% for Joe Biden, 5% for Andrew Cuomo, 4% for Elizabeth Warren, 2% for Martin O'Malley, and 1% each for Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, and Mark Warner.

Should I be buying plane tickets to Iowa already? I thought I was going to get a little bit of a vacation between presidential races, but the media's eagerness for the next presidential campaign seems to be winning out over common sense.


Comments (29) RSS

Oldest First Unregistered On Registered On Add a comment
Congratulations on your marriage.

Though I am happy for you I am even happier about the pain you are saving gay children.

You are a hero.
Posted by jharp on December 6, 2012 at 1:45 PM · Report this
Dougsf 2
Four years from now, Marco Rubio will be too bald to run for President, and Hillary will be nearly 70.

My prediction is currently we have no clue who it will be.
Posted by Dougsf on December 6, 2012 at 1:55 PM · Report this
Will in Seattle 3
@2 is correct.

Now if they had one of the twins from San Antonio TX or Chelsea Clinton, I might believe it.
Posted by Will in Seattle on December 6, 2012 at 1:59 PM · Report this
T 4
It's getting to be like Christmas - We're gearing up for the next cycle immediately after the last cycle just ended.

That said, I'd love to see an Elizabeth Warren/Cory Booker ticket.
Posted by T on December 6, 2012 at 2:00 PM · Report this
pfffter 5
This post made me throw up a little in my mouth.
Posted by pfffter on December 6, 2012 at 2:00 PM · Report this
matt 6
Be the change you want to see, Paul.
Posted by matt on December 6, 2012 at 2:02 PM · Report this
Urgutha Forka 7
Cool, thanks!

What about the polls for 2020?


What's taking so long?!?
Posted by Urgutha Forka on December 6, 2012 at 2:29 PM · Report this
balderdash 8
The responsible sectors of the media can only get away with this shit if we watch it, click on it, and get worked up over it. Ignore them and they'll... well, not go away, but at least be forced to restrain themselves a bit.

Anyway, I don't think there's too much reason to panic. This seems more like it's attempting to slurp up the last dregs of Election 2012 than attempting to get people genuinely percolating on 2016 yet.
Posted by balderdash on December 6, 2012 at 2:32 PM · Report this
Kirsten Gillibrand for president, Hillary Clinton for vice-president 2016.
Posted by rationaland on December 6, 2012 at 2:34 PM · Report this
fletc3her 10
Most of the people who live in Iowa are reporters or campaign workers who set up camp there years ago and never managed to leave. Eventually, election cycles blur into one another.
Posted by fletc3her on December 6, 2012 at 2:59 PM · Report this
Fnarf 11
@2 is smart. It's going to be none of the above. Booker? Castro? Hickenlooper? Patrick? Cuomo? Who the hell knows?

Hillary looks like running now, but in three years? Running for Prez takes truly phenomenal amounts of stamina. She's too old. Even if you disagree, if the Republicans run someone younger, as they almost certainly will next time, it will be a campaign issue. "Oldest president ever" is not a catchy slogan.

Rubio's going to flame out. Indeed, he already did, yesterday, when he voted against the disability treaty. People aren't going to forget that. He might have helped his chances at the nomination, though I doubt it, but he absolutely torpedoed his chance at the election itself.
Posted by Fnarf on December 6, 2012 at 3:05 PM · Report this
Simone 12
Maybe Hillary Clinton still has the energy for campaigning but she'll be like 70 years old by 2016. If she feels up to it I'm voting for her. But, I'd love to see someone younger to take on the election.
Posted by Simone on December 6, 2012 at 3:28 PM · Report this
@11 "Booker? Castro? Hickenlooper? Patrick? Cuomo? Who the hell knows?"

No one knows, but all those special snowflakes who are going to bail because the eventual Democratic nominee isn't going to be everything they want, should be looking around and planting the seeds.

After all, for some time to come, these polls will primarily be name recognition contests.
Posted by Where Is PPP's Methodology Write-Up For This Poll? on December 6, 2012 at 3:29 PM · Report this
delirian 14
@11: No, Reagan will still be the oldest at inauguration even if Hillary is elected in 2016 (by a few months). She won't be the oldest President ever unless she is elected in 2024.
Posted by delirian on December 6, 2012 at 3:48 PM · Report this
Fnarf 15
214, yeah, that's close enough. And, you know, Reagan didn't really RUN for President; he just sat there and let it happen. I don't think he got less than fourteen hours of sleep a day from 1976 until the day he died. That's not going to happen for Hillary, or any other actual human.
Posted by Fnarf on December 6, 2012 at 5:33 PM · Report this
Reverse Polarity 16
Okay, I enjoyed the hilarity that was the republican primary. I'm a bit of a political junkie.

But please, for the love of god, don't feed this thing that is the 2016 campaign. Not yet. We haven't even sworn in the winners of the 2012 election yet. Just let it rest for a few months at least. Have pity on me.
Posted by Reverse Polarity on December 6, 2012 at 6:08 PM · Report this
Yes to @6.
Posted by floater on December 6, 2012 at 6:17 PM · Report this
In the immediate wake of an election, everyone's brain is thinking "election!" but the election that just happened is not generating any news (or at least, none that's interesting) so they always spend some time talking about possibilities for next time until everyone's brains reset to not thinking "election", and then they move on to other stuff.
Posted by I have always been... east coaster on December 8, 2012 at 8:30 PM · Report this
My prediction for 2016 for the Democrats will be Hillary Clinton for President with Julian Castro for her VP, and Obama doing fundraising for her since he owes her big time for taking the fall for the Benghazi incident. Hillary does not play "second fiddle" to anyone. With that ticket she would be a "shoe- in" to be elected. Just sayin' :)
Posted by classy lady on February 12, 2013 at 1:45 PM · Report this
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