When Calderon took office in 2006, voters like 53-year-old Torreon housewife Rosaura Gomez supported his conservative National Action Party (PAN) for taking on drug traffickers.
But as the violence intensified and got closer to home, she lost faith. In this year's presidential election, Gomez backed the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, which ruled for most of the 20th century, in the hope that it can restore order. The party won the election and will return to power in December.
"Before, there was a pact, and things were calm. The drugs went to the United States and these groups didn't mess with the people. This is what we want so we can live in peace," she said.
I will repeat my prediction one more time—when the PRI (Mexico's old-boy political party) gets back in the saddle, it will further bolster its alliance with the Sinaloa (Mexico's old-boy, gentleman-farmer cartel) and create a pax narcotica.
Or, more accurately, they'll restore the pax narcotica that had been in place since the US first decided to ban/control marijuana, opium, and coca in the early 20th century. When that happened, the Mexican plantation owners (who roughly congealed into the Sinaloa) colluded with the government and military to keep things going.
The system ran smoothly, more or less, until a few bumps in the road: One, the war on drugs fractured the market and the private armies. (And military-trained anti-drug warriors flipped to become ferocious drug vikings like the Zetas, which only made things bloodier.) Two, Mexican voters got fed up with the institutionalized corruption of the PRI and voted them out of office. The authority, the center of gravity, was lost. The Hobbesian war of all on all began.
Voters like the one quoted above got sick of that and yearn for the peace and quiet of stable, institutionalized corruption.
I suspect that after an initial increase in violence (perhaps a severe increase) as the PRI and the Sinaloa clear the decks and annihilate their rivals, things will settle down. And the drugs will flow more freely and efficiently than ever.